Crude Oil Forecast and Technical Analysis Dec 8thA strengthening U.S. dollar makes a negative effect on Crude Oil prices. However; Chinese data of earlier today supported the price.
For the midterm, we keep our idea of 60-62 USD.
2 important fundamentals are supporting the price:
OPEC supply cut
China’s demand which will this year overtake the United States as the world’s biggest crude importer. China’s crude oil imports rose to 37.04 million tonnes in November, or 9.01 million barrels per day the second highest on record, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday.
Crude Oil Forecast and Technical:
After a weak EIA data outcome, Crude Oil dropped and tested EMA 200 support of the H4 chart 55.85.
After the data, I shared on the telegram channel and mentioned 55.85.
It is positive for the Crude Oil price to stay above this support. Traders may have overdone it with lighter holiday volume and we could chart a course for higher prices again.
56.25 and 56.64 have been broken very fast. Now we have reached the main resistance: 57.00
Why 57.00 is important:
1.EMA 100 and EMA 50 resistances of the H4 chart
2.MA 20 / Median Bollinger Bands Line
RSI headed North Again.
What can be done for intraday trade?
An H4 closing above 57.10 will carry the price upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The targets will be 57.40 and 57.80.
If the price cannot break above 57.10, 56.64 and 56.25 will be tested again.
Wtilong
WTI: Crude Boy testing the resistance of weekly chart to break Crude Oil reached one of the most important resistance of LONG term.
WTI Crude Oil futures price seems to reflect the growing hopes of resolving major issues with Russian President’s visit to Iran, which may provide new dimensions to demand-supply equation of the WTI Crude Oil price.
On the weekly chart, we can clearly see the picture.
Breakout of 55 USD will confirm 60.00 USD midterm. We have reached our first main target 55 USD. My prediction was Bullish with the targets, 55, 58 and 60.
News from Reuters gives us a clue about the direction:
Reuters: Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will hike December crude prices for customers in Asia to levels last seen in 2013 or 2014, a Reuters survey showed, with OPEC-led output cuts and robust demand re-balancing markets for the commodity.
The producer is expected to raise flagship Arab Light’s December official selling price to at least 90 cents a barrel above Oman/Dubai quotes, the survey of five refiners showed. That would be the highest premium since $1.65 in September 2014, according to Reuters data.
Prices for heavier grades may see a bigger boost in December, the survey showed, with Arab Heavy’s OSP set to rise to at least $1.30 below Oman-Dubai quotes. That would be the narrowest discount for Saudi heavy crude since minus $1.05 in December 2013, according to Reuters data.
Daily Chart:
55.46 and 56.35 are the first targets. Possible pullback levels 54.25, 53.90 and 53.51.
I am keeping all my LONG positions. I will add LONG with the daily closing above 55.30.
Pullback levels mentioned above are buying opportunities.
WTI Crude Oil futures weekly closing price level on November 3rd, 2017 will provide an important clue about the movement of WTI Crude Oil futures price’s direction during the upcoming weeks.
WTI Crude Oil ForecastOil prices settled higher in see-saw trade on Friday, as political tensions in the Kurdistan region continued to disrupt crude supplies.
Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan were flowing at average rates of 216,000 barrels per day versus the usual flows of 600,000 bpd, a shipping source said.
The supply disruption in Iraq comes amid ongoing political uncertainty in the region following conflict between Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Iraqi troops marched toward Northern Iraq earlier in week and regained control of two major oilfields from Kurdish forces.
The global benchmark ended the week with an increase of approximately 1%, supported by growing indications that the market was starting to rebalance.
In a speech Thursday, Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said that the oil market is balancing at an “accelerated pace,” and demand will continue to rapidly grow in coming decades.
But; we need to keep in our minds that OPEC needs to extend its agreement to reduce oil output beyond its current March 2018 expiry date in order to rebalance the market.
Technically:
We have LONG positions and Friday we entered a LONG trade by using the pullbacks.
Our Crude boy insists on playing in its playground. The supply zone of 51.00-52.20. As I mentioned in my previous articles several times a) pullbacks towards 49.60 are buying opportunities b) Crude needs to make H4 closings above 52.20 to continue its upward movement. Breakout of this supply zone will carry the price 53.60.
What are the pullback levels to add LONG positions? a) 51.56 which is EMA 50; MMath Pivot Reverse 2/8 and Kumo Support of H4 Chart. b) 51.00-50.80 Fibo 61.80% and EMA 100 of H4 Chart.
Long at 51.84 target at 52.76 on reverse H&SWTI just break a neckline on a reverse head and shoulders
i think the breakout of the reverse H&S is confirmed
also Irak news today make oil more stong so why not ?
enter at 51.84
targeting 52.77
Stop loss 51.50
gains = 91 pips
if stopped =30 pips
risk reward
1/3
WTI long continuationWTI has recently bounced long but in the previous sessions it is drifting without any strong directional confirmation. For the upside to continue I am expecting price to hold long above the 45.65-45.80 zone and also show increasing strength through 46.70-46.94 to confirm upward pressure.
DISCLAIMER:
This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. This is not investment advice. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
WTI retracement longDaily and 4HR time frames are both off over sold on the RSI. I am expecting a retracement to 3.58 unless further signals to to sell off become evident. Price reaching a low of 1.80 would be ideal for the entry long, giving the trade a 25:1 theoretical risk reward. As price has already reached 1.92, we may not see more downward pressure to achieve the ideal price.
DISCLAIMER:
This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. This is not investment advice. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
OIL Reversal and all Importer LevelsAs you can see oil has got out of sync with the trading range, as you can see it happened 2 times before in this range and both time it was a reversal signal. Now we have the same situation again and also the price is nearing a nice support. ADX red line slowly starts to fade with green going up slightly and Stoch is close to a bullish cross over. So indicators arent that convincing yet. When we see a actual bounce back of this support it would be a nice entry for a buy.
I always like to get in early so I bought it already with a stop at 43.65 and a toke profit of 46.40
Return of Oil?During the drop of the prices of oil after the OPEC meeting, several Oil ministers were not worried of the decline of oil prices as they say it is normal every after meeting and that it would recover. Is this is? Despite the formation of a fakey bar, the prices are still below the 8, 21 EMAs... not mentioning below the 200 SMA as well.
BCOUSD @ 60 min. Chart @ suggests price pressure until 48 USDThe big picture is still looking pretty bullish
Based on daily charts , an outbreak above 54 is only a question of time - this month or even january`17 ...
But the short term makes me afraid last 24 hours and even suggests me price pressure even unbtil 48 USD ?!
How ever the short-tmer chart is pretty bearish even under 52.500 BCOUSD
Why ??? Let me shortly excplain ...
the daily sma broked even around by 52.500
the weekly sma broked even around by 52.500
the monthly is more or less even around by 48.000
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron