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JSE:CLS Clicks Still Waiting for the Backup ActionAfter breaking the reaccumulation trading range (TR) with signs of strength (SoS) we now see a smaller trading range forming which should lead to some backing up action before the markup in phase E starts. After the breakout and SoS we have had localised buying climax (BC), automatic reaction (AR) and now a secondary test (ST) of the BC completing phase A of the sampler TR that is forming. There is no demand (low volume) and I am expecting the price to stay in the TR until a spring forms which completes the backing up (BU) action to test the breakout level of the larger reaccumulation TR. For now, some patience is required for the TR to complete before going long and following the markup.
JSE:CLS
by SteynTrade
ACB BLOOD| Volume Climax| Oversold Bounce?Hello Traders, Today’s chart update will be on ACB – Aurora Cannabis INC, which is in a severe down trend that has been respecting Fibonacci extension levels. Price is currently testing a critical technical level that needs to hold to avoid capitulation… Points to consider, - Strong establish bear trend - Support being tested - Structural resistance retest - Stochastics in lower region - RSI oversold - Volume Climax ACB has clearly been putting in lower highs consecutively on the daily timeframe, there are no signs yet of this changing. ACB is currently testing a critical support level that is in confluence with the 1.618 Fibonacci level. This level needs to hold otherwise ACB is in a risk of capitulating. Structural resistance has been confirmed with a bearish retest which also further confirms the S/R flip. The Stochastics is in lower regions, can stay down here for an extended period of time, however we do have lots of stored momentum to the upside. The RSI historically bounces from such oversold conditions; however we don’t have a clear sign of the bounce starting. Strong bear volume has put in a volume climax bar, signalling a potential exhaustion in the bearish trend; it would only be natural for the price to see a relief bounce from such lows. ACB has also been respecting the Fibonacci Extensions, price is approaching the 1.618 Fib Extension that is in confluence with the critical support level, increasing the probability of a bounce. Overall, In my opinion, ACB is on the verge of capitulating if this critical support is not held, it is however more probable for an oversold bounce due to the sharp decline in this bear trend. What are your thoughts on ACB? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
A
by AzizKhanZamani
2
TRXBTC Trend Change| Higher Lows|Key Resistance ! Hello Traders! Today’s chart update will be on TRX, 240 timeframe, testing an important resistant level that needs to break to keep the bullish bias. A break from this level will increase the probability of TRX testing structural resistance, which has multiple technical confluences. Points to consider, - Confirmed Trend Change - Support provided by EMA’s - Key resistance being tested - Stochastics projected upwards - RSI trading in upper region - Healthy Volume - VPVR cluster showing low volume of transactions - Structural resistance as next target TRX has broken its lower low projection and has successfully put in consecutive higher lows as it comes into a key resistance. TRX needs to break this resistance with convincing volume to keep the uptrend intact. Support is currently being provided by the EMA’s which has turned bullish from local lows. The stochastics is currently trading in the upper region, can stay up here for an extended period of time, however we do have lots of stored momentum to the downside. The RSI on the other hand is respecting its support (red line), bouncing of it multiple times. Volume is currently healthy, its needs to sustain with bull volume to break resistance, which will also avoid the chances of a false break. The VPVR is showing low volume of transactions from resistance to structural resistance. This signals that this cluster will pose little resistance in terms of volume of transactions, if and when TRX tests. Structural resistance is the technical target for TRX as this level is in confluence with multiple technical indicators such as the .50 Fibonacci level and the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension. Overall, In My Opinion, TRX has established an uptrend with consecutive lower highs, the market structure has changed. TRX needs to break current resistance levels in order to keep the bullish bias. Volume is looking very healthy for this break, so we do have a greater probability of breaking resistance and meeting technical target. What are your thoughts on TRX trend change? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
3
BTC Bart Fractal|Strong Resistance|Need Volume Follow Through!!Hello Traders, Today’s update will be on Bitcoins recent developments, where a possible fractal is playing out with a confirmed Bart pattern. BTC is now trading at a very strong resistant point which can only be broken with strong bull volume. Will bulls have enough in the tank to break resistance or is a retracement back to support more probable? Points to consider, - Trend confirmed Bart pattern - Local Support Respected - Local Resistance is in Confluence with Structural Resistance - RSI Neutral - Stochastics Projected upwards - EMA yet to turn bullish - Volume needs follow through The recent trend in Bitcoin’s price has been following a fractal with a confirmed Bart from local support. BTC consolidated before an impulse move down, where bulls instantaneously showed up to move price right back in to resistance. The current level that is being tested needs to break for strong bullish momentum. Local support was respected by Bitcoin, confirming the S/R flip. This signalled that buyers were strong, putting in a healthy retest of previous resistance. Local Resistance however is in confluence with the macro structural resistance. This is a very strong area that Bitcoin needs to break for continued bullish momentum. For this to come to fruition, we need strong follow through with bull volume, otherwise price will retrace back to local support. RSI is currently testing resistance in neutral territory; it is not in overbought nor oversold at current given time. The Stochastics is projected upwards, we still have momentum stored to the upside if Bitcoin is capable of breaking the strong resistance. The EMA’s are yet to turn completely bullish, the yellow EMA needs to cross the blue EMA to confirm bull momentum. Volume is very important right now for Bitcoin, we need an increase in bull volume, currently it is looking very weak. Overall, In My Opinion, local support has been tested and respected, but we do have very strong resistance levels that need to break. Volume is very key right now, like I mentioned, it does look quite weak but it is too early to tell. A retest of local support again is quite probable at current given time before an impulse break of major resistance levels. What are your thoughts on the recent developments of Bitcoin? Please leave a like and comment, And Remember, “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold put out a bucket not a thimble.” – Warren Buffet
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by AzizKhanZamani
2
Using Past Bitcoin Volume To Predict Future Price$ / Tick is calculated using 1 tick = $0.01 What you're doing is taking the total volume executed across ALL the exchanges... Then subtracting the HIGH and the LOW to get the range.. then dividing the two . What that does is evenly distributes/allocates volume to each tick of price movement on the bar. these are daily bars. e.g $1.00 = 100 ticks. Volume 5000, Range High to Low = $100 (Ticks = 10000) 0.5 BTC of volume executed in every tick (5000 BTC / 10000 Tick Range) This is converted to $ amounts using the average price. So the numbers on the posted on the chart is the Volume Per Tick that was executed that day * multiplied * by the $$ of dollars spent that day on volume. e.g. Average price = $3,000. 0.5 BTC (from above) * $3,000 (average Price) = $1,500 spent in every tick. This is then summed. Another way to express it is { * Average Price (OHLC4) } So here's what has happened since 2013: It topped out at the peak in 2013. Since, it increased steadily from the 2013 top until hitting 10x the $275k figure from the 2013 top (from $275,000 to $2,500,000 Dollars Per Tick) in January 2017. It then stayed stable throughout 2017 after breaking the old 2014 ATH of $1,100 / BTC. It continued to remain Stable until we hit the ATH at $20k, Dec 2018. It then began increasing again until the bottoming/accumulation in Jan/Feb 2019. Then came the bullish leg up. IN SPOT BTC it has since been decreasing. This should, in theory, be a bad sign. (i.e. "Low volume pump") HOWEVER, if you factor in that most trading is happening on Bitmex and now Bybit... we can add those Dollars per Tick & Volume as well. Doing so, we are currently at 4.5x of the Dollar Per Tick amount of the 2018 top ($2,500,000 to $11,100,000) . Conclusions: If we include derivative volume we would infer that we have to finish generating double the economic mass (in the trading ecosystem) and we'll be off to our upper targets of 300k. If we conclude that derivative is "fake volume" because it's not real bitcoin, but rather "paper bitcoin" and thus discount it. We're likely in a B (or X) wave and I'll get my $1200 bitcoin. My inclination is that we are in a bull market and will see new ATH's. I don't think I'll get my $1,200 bitcoin =( However, I would imagine that by this analysis, we can conclusively settle the argument if there ever was one: Derivatives are driving the market. Bitcoin and its 21 million supply may still be a part of the value proposition but with 100x availability in more and more places, a supply limit is a figment of the imagination when it comes to supply/demand and price discovery. Derivatives create an infinite supply of bitcoin by just adding 0000s to your position size and executing it against the market. The arb bots and indexing functions keep the price at parity, so, exchanges do have to move together. But, through margin, there is virtually an unlimited supply of Bitcoin FLAMER DISCLAIMER: Target is arbitrary... it should carry no weight. This is not a precise price prediction. Time to the right of the chart is arbitrary, this is not a precise timing prediction. DYOR - Do Your Own Research. I present the data for your analysis... not because I'm convinced I'm right. I'd be happy to hear contrary thoughts
BNC:BLX
by kurtsmock
1
BTCUSD Adam and Eve Formation | Double Bottom ! Hello Traders! Today’s chart update will be on Bitcoin’s recent developments, a potential bullish formation, an Adam and Eve bottoming is playing out... We also have a visible double bottom within this formation. Points to consider, - Trend Consolidating after initial bull move - Support is found in the green zone - Local resistance is at the $9,700 area - Stochastics currently trading neutral - RSI respecting trend line - EMA’s supporting price - Volume has tapered off - Technical target in confluence with local top After recent pump in bitcoin’s price, it has been consolidating above the $9,000 price, which is very bullish. Adam was formed by a V-Shape recovery and Eve is currently being formed by a rounded bottom, this technically is a bullish formation, a pattern that needs to break resistance for confirmation. Support is found in the green zone, price has tested this area twice, putting in a potential double bottom within a bullish formation. Local resistance is found at the $9,700 area, this is a key area in the bullish formation, and it needs to break for a confirmation and a continuation in the overall trend. The Stochastics is currently trading neutral, is has stored momentum in both directions. We need to see more signs to determine where the stochs are headed. The RSI however is respecting its trend line; it needs to hold for Eve’s rounding bottom to complete. The EMA’s similarly to the RSI needs to hold price as support to complete Eve’s rounding bottom as it comes into local resistance. Volume is very important to watch if and when price testes local resistance. We need to see an influx of bull volume upon breakout; this will complete and confirm the bullish formation. Overall, IMO, this Adam and Eve pattern will come to fruition if the EMA’s successfully hold price as it comes into resistance. A break needs to be backed by bull volume to avoid the chances of a false break. The technical target for this Adam and Eve formation aligns perfectly with the local top… What are your thoughts? Please Leave a like and comment And remember, “Dangers of watching every tick are twofold: overtrading and increased chances of prematurely liquidating good positions” – Jack Schwager
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by AzizKhanZamani
TRXBTC Daily Trend Change | Increase in Bull Volume Hello Traders Two more months in the year, how time flies… Today’s chart update will be on TRXBTC, we have a potential daily trend change which is backed up with strong bull volume… Points to consider, - Trend is putting in new higher lows - Resistance at .236 Fibonacci retracement - Support held by EMA’s (EMA’s Bull Cross) - Stochastics trading in upper region - RSI testing its local resistance - Visible increase in bull volume TRX has been on the move as of late, changing its overall daily trend with consecutive higher lows as it comes into local resistance. This resistance, the .236 Fibonacci Retracement, is in confluence with structural resistance, a key area that needs to be broken for a continuation. Support is being held by the EMA’s which does look quite strong after a confirmed bull cross. This cross initially signalled the daily trend change. The stochastics is currently trading in the upper regions; a healthy retracement in the trend can come to fruition as the stochastics does have a lot of momentum stored to the downside. The RSI confirmed the bullish divergence, and is now trading in the upper region at local resistance. If this resistance breaks, is can trade in the orange highlighted box for an extended period of time, as history suggests. Volume has been a great indicator; we have had an increase in bull volume, showing that buyers are strong in this trend change. We need to see this continue for local upper resistances to be tested. Overall, IMO, TRX has had an impressive trend change with follow through; a healthy correction is not farfetched. This will cool of the stochastics and RSI indicators before another leg up, this will also allow the trend to put in another higher low… What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment , And remember “You’re going to learn a million things, then you need to forget them all and focus on one.” - SunriseTrader
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
ETHBTC Oversold Bounce? Key Support Area| Volume Climax Hello Traders! Hope your all enjoying your weekend, Today’s update will be on ETHBTC, key levels to watch after this initial dump, will a bounce come to fruition or a continuation? Points to consider, - Trend broke out of falling wedge pattern on the macro timeframe - Support at .50 Fibonacci - Local resistance in confluence with local top - Stochastics in lower regions - RSI currently oversold - EMA’s yet to meet price - Volume climax Bars After initial break from its falling wedge pattern, ETH topped out at local resistance before a massive dump to the .618 Fibonacci retracement level. It is currently holding support at the .50 Fibonacci level, the wicks down to the .618 level signals that buyers a strong, this area is also in confluence with local support. Resistance is where price has locally topped out; ETH needs to break this key level for a bullish continuation in the overall trend. The stochastics is currently in lower regions, no bottoming signal yet, it can stay in these regions for an extended period of time, a bounce however will have a lot of stored momentum to the upside. The RSI is currently way oversold, needs to cool off from these areas, if price holds support and moves up then the RSI will have a chance to recover so with other indicators… EMA’s are yet to meet price, it has been holding as resistance thus will add more selling pressure to the price when it meets at local support. A cross of the EMA’s at local support will be extremely bullish… Volume has climaxed, signally a temporary bottom for ETH, unless price breaks through the .618 Fibonacci within the next couple days. Overall, IMO, local support is strong here, last time ETH wicked down; it had a rally into local resistance. Bulls need to defend this key level, otherwise yearly lows are on the cards if support was to be broken. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Only The Game , Can Teach You The Game” – Jesse Livermore
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
MCOBTC Rising Wedge | Bearish Divergence | Correction?Hello Traders, Today’s chart update will be on MCOBTC, where we have had a potential Adam and EVE bottom from yearly lows. Price is now testing key support that needs to hold, however we are seeing bearish signs such as the bearish divergence.. Points to consider, - Trend is considered bullish with lower highs - Major Resistance broke, now support - Local resistance at 5632 Satts - Stochastics projected downwards - RSI diverging from price - EMA’s holding support - Volume below average MCO is at a critical point in its trend where we do see multiple bearish signs in the chart. The trend is bullish however is testing key support in a falling wedge formation, a correction into the zone is more likely to be at play. Major Structural resistance has been broken from yearly lows; MCO needs to hold current area to confirm an S/R flip. Local resistance however is at 5362 Satts, the VPVR between the two segments show a decrease in the volume of transactions. This signals that bulls are more likely to test local resistance due to low levels of transaction… The stochastics is projecting more probable downside potential; bears have stored momentum if a correction does play out. RSI is currently diverging from price; this puts more emphasis on the bearish divergence as price puts in consecutive higher highs whilst the RSI puts in lower highs. The EMA’s is currently holding support which is in confluence with structural support, making the zone more significant for the bulls. Volume is well below average, we needs to see an influx of volume if price where to break and or bounce from current area… Overall, IMO, MCO is more probable to have a correction as we do see multiple bearish signs, we have a rising wedge formation in confluence with a bearish divergence. Volume is also extremely low; we need to see an influx of bull volume if price were to have a chance of respecting key support. What are your thoughts on MCO? Will we have a correction here? Please leave a like and comment And remember, “Time is your friend; Impulse if your enemy “- John Bogle
MShort
by AzizKhanZamani
BTCUSD Critical Support Area! Potential Falling Wedge?Hello Traders! Volatility is back for Bitcoin! The bear flag came to fruition (chart in link below), Bitcoin is now currently testing a critical support zone which needs to hold otherwise lower lows are at play. The chart is somewhat also forming a potential falling wedge formation, which is a bullish pattern, are we probable to see a bounce from current lows? Points to consider, - Trend bearish, consecutive lower highs - Critical support being tested - Local resistance at .50 Fibonacci - Stochastics in lower regions - RSI testing trend line - EMA’s giving price resistance - Spike in volume upon breakout BTC confirmed its bear flag formation with a decisive break with above average volume, the technical target for this bear flag coincides with major structural support. Critical support in the meantime is being tested, price has wicked and bounced of the .618 Fibonacci level at current given time. Local resistance is as the .50 Fibonacci level, which needs to be breached if we see a bull break from this potential falling wedge pattern. This will allow price action to put in a local higher low… The stochastics is currently in the lower regions, needs to cross over for upside momentum, the Stochs can stay very irrational in lower regions; we need to see a confirmed cross for upside momentum. RSI is quite interesting, it is respecting its trend line, the current third touch needs to hold, which will put more emphasis on a potential bullish divergence being at play. EMA’s are currently giving price strong resistance, they need to cross bullish otherwise we simply remain in a distinctive bear trend. Volume has had a decent spike upon this bear flag break, this confirmed that the break wasn’t false, for a continuation either way, we need to see an increase in volume otherwise consolidation may be at play at current level. Overall, IMO, if the current level does not hold, BTC is more probable to test major structural support, which is the technical target of the bear flag. If price does hold, we are more probable to test upper resistance of the potential falling wedge pattern; it all really depends on volume at current given time… What are our thoughts? Please leave a like and comment And remember, The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary. – Alexander Elder
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by AzizKhanZamani