Xauusd(w)
Gold H1 | Falling toward an overlap supportGold (XAU/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 2,893.52 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,875.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 2,927.81 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionGold prices dipped on Friday as the US jobs report and rising Treasury yields reshaped market sentiment. The US Dollar also trimmed some losses, adding to the pressure. Despite the NFP data missing the mark, the Unemployment Rate remained stable.
The current consolidation phase comes amid uncertainty following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing a potentially "bumpy" path to 2% inflation. The impact of Trump's tariff policies also remains a key consideration.
So, what does this mean for gold prices? Even with central banks like the PBoC and NBP actively buying gold (as highlighted by the World Gold Council), the market faces conflicting forces.
In this video, I break down the technical analysis and share my strategies for navigating the next move in the gold market.
#gold #goldprice #federalreserve #jeromepowell #nfp #trading #technicalanalysis #investing #marketnews #goldmarket #ustreasuryyields #greenback
Disclaimer:
Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Always assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts.
Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact.
A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire.
Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES
Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Data Source: WGC
China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike.
LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US
The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic.
Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau.
Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold.
Chart Source: WGC
Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S.
The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints.
However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Chart Source: WGC
Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE
The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment.
The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected.
Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average.
Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction.
GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE
Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019.
Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market.
Source: CME CVol
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025.
Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading.
Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold.
With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction.
To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value).
Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks.
The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below.
The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz.
Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator
If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing.
MARKET DATA
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GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the GOLD Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
Gold has consolidated for the last half of the previous week. Trading in a ranging market is not recommended! But waiting until there is an obvious sweep of the high or low liquidity pools can give us an indication which side the market will break the consolidation. Patience and a watchful eye will allow us to take advantage of the momentous opportunity.
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Gold: in a mood for short correctionWeakening US Dollar gave some space for gold to slow down its road toward the higher grounds. The uncertainty over the US Administration trade tariffs was a fuel for the price of gold to reach all time higher grounds in the previous period, but as the time of its final implementation is uncertain, as well as the level of tariffs, the gold took some time for a short rest. However, the price of gold started the week at lower grounds, around the level of $2.830, while during the week was hedging up, reaching the highest weekly level at $2.930. Around this level, the price of gold was traded for the last three days of the week.
The RSI started its relaxation, ending the week at the level of 58. A clear reversal toward the oversold side has not been started. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are still moving as two parallel lines, without an indication that the cross might come soon, as well as a potential trend reversal.
As per current charts, there is an indication of a probability for a short term reversal in the coming period. However, it is unclear whether this reversal will occur in the week ahead. Considering current general market uncertainty, the price of gold might continue to oscillate around current levels for one more week. When the reversal starts, charts are pointing to the level of $2.850. There is no clear indication that the price might go below this level. On a longer time frame, there is still an indication for the $3K, however, there is probability that this level might be reached after a short reversal toward the downside.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 10 - March 14]OANDA:XAUUSD have recovered strongly this week, rising from $2,858/oz to $2,930/oz before adjusting to $2,910/oz. The main reason is political tension when US President Donald Trump stopped military aid to Ukraine and threatened to sanction Russia if it did not negotiate a ceasefire. This increased instability, supporting gold prices. However, if Russia and Ukraine move towards peace negotiations, gold prices may face downward pressure in the short term, although the possibility is still low.
Furthermore, Mr. Trump’s move forced the European Union (EU) to launch a spending package of nearly 1 trillion euros to strengthen the defense of EU member states. This means that the EU’s budget deficit will become larger, leading to higher inflation and lower growth, thereby increasing the role of gold as a safe haven.
The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure for February came in at 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 159,000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, but the labor market remains untroubled. As a result, the Fed may maintain its current interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also stressed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates as the labor market remains strong and inflation risks remain high.
Rising inflation while the Fed maintains stable interest rates has caused real interest rates to fall, supporting gold prices. In addition, economic instability due to US tariff policies and the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have also increased the demand for safe haven gold. However, since most of the risks have been reflected in prices, gold may not increase sharply next week and there is a risk of correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure.
🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK:
Inflation will be in focus next week as markets digest a number of key data on US prices and consumer spending. The most notable is the February CPI report on Wednesday, followed by the PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. Other key events include the US JOLTS jobs report on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday morning, and the US weekly jobless claims report on Thursday.
📌Technically, gold prices will fluctuate in a relatively narrow daily range next week with support at $2,890/oz and resistance at $2,930/oz. If gold prices rise above $2,930/oz next week, they could rise to $2,950/oz, followed by strong resistance at $3,000/oz. However, if gold prices are pushed below $2,890/oz next week, they could fall to the $2,835-$2,860/oz range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD
Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2980
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2809 - 2811⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2805
Seize the opportunity to go long on goldFrom the trend point of view. Comparing the long and short positions, the long position is still slightly stronger. At present, the gold price fluctuates in a narrow range around 2905. There is no major news to boost or suppress the gold price in the short term. From the trend point of view, it is obvious that the rebound of gold is not enough to support the rebound and continuation of the breakthrough of gold. Therefore, after consuming a certain amount of short-selling power, the bulls will regain control of the situation, and there will be very good trading opportunities for long gold. Now we are long gold around 2905-2910. The target is 2915-2920 area, wish us good luck! Brothers, are you following me to go long on gold?
RSI is oversold, suggesting a bottom-picking signalAlthough the unexpected cold non-farm data last Friday failed to push gold prices above the key resistance of $2,930, the logic of gold's rise has not been shaken - the five core supporting factors of global central banks' increased holdings, continued inflows of ETFs, surge in demand for physical gold, deepening of the U.S. debt crisis and excessive money supply are constantly consolidating the long-term bull market foundation of gold. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD maintains a golden cross and the energy column expands. The weekly big positive line has established a medium-term upward trend. 2,990 is only the first target, and 3,000 or even higher may become the new normal.
The short-term market is in a volatile adjustment, but this is a necessary accumulation stage for a healthy rise. The current gold price is repeatedly pulling back in the range of 2,918-2,890, which is essentially a process of digesting previous profit-taking and waiting for new catalytic events. If it can effectively stand firm at the key support of $2,890, it is expected to restart the upward trend and challenge the historical high. It is worth noting that against the backdrop of the continued rise in expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the spillover of geopolitical conflict risks and high global inflation, the dual attributes of gold's "anti-inflation + safe-haven" will continue to attract capital inflows. The general trend is still mainly to go long after falling back to lows.
Gold strategy suggestion: continue to go long after falling back to around 2900-2910.
XAUUSD GOLD Market Analysis & ForecastCurrent Market Condition
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a range between $2930 and $2891. At present, the price stands at $2909.50, indicating that the market is indecisive and awaiting a breakout.
On the Daily (D1) timeframe, XAU/USD has broken the previous uptrend, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The current price action suggests that the market is undergoing a retracement phase, and a deeper correction may be expected.
Bearish Scenario: Downside Breakout Expected
The $2930 resistance level has been tested multiple times, with strong rejection, confirming the presence of strong sellers in the market.
If XAU/USD fails to regain strength above $2930, it is likely to break the key support level at $2891 and continue its downward move.
Once $2891 is broken, further downside targets are:
Target 01: $2859
Target 02: $2834
These levels align with historical support zones and Fibonacci retracement levels, further supporting the bearish outlook.
Bullish Scenario: Breakout Above $2930
If XAU/USD gains bullish momentum and breaks above the $2930 level, buyers will take control, and the price may rally further.
The immediate upside targets in this scenario are:
Target 01: $2956
Target 02: $2980
Additionally, market sentiment remains highly bullish in the long term, with expectations that gold could test its all-time high of $3000.
Market Sentiment & Conclusion
The current sentiment in XAU/USD suggests a higher probability of downside movement, as long as the price remains below $2930. However, a breakout above this level will shift the momentum in favor of buyers, targeting new highs. Traders should monitor key levels closely and watch for confirmation before entering trades.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🔻 Support: $2891, $2859, $2834
🔺 Resistance: $2930, $2956, $2980, $3000
GOLD falls slightly as Dollar recovers, news, main trendsOANDA:XAUUSD has just dropped to around $2,912/ounce, down nearly $10 from the intraday high of $2,918/ounce reached earlier in the session.
The recovery of the US Dollar can be seen as the current pressure causing gold prices to slightly decline from the intraday high.
Overview of data and event news
The Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with economists polled by Reuters who expected a gain of 160,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with expectations of 4%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said early Friday that the Fed would take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, adding that the economy “remains in good shape.”
While gold is a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
The market is now expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates starting in June, with a total of 76 basis points of interest rate cuts over the rest of the year.
Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide additional guidance for market trends in general and the gold market in particular.
On the daily chart, gold is generally still in the accumulation phase with the positioning conditions tilted towards the upside.
The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the nearest support is the EMA21 and the technical level of 2,900 USD. At the raw price point of 2,900 USD, it also created significant price increases in the last 2 days of the weekend.
The relative strength index is facing some resistance from the 61 level noted in the previous issue, where once the RSI breaks this level it will continue to head towards the oversold zone which is a signal that will facilitate the possibility of gold price increasing in terms of momentum.
In the coming time, as long as gold remains above 2,900 USD, it will still tend to be bullish in the short term, and the target continues to be the all-time high or higher.
The notable technical price points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868 USD
Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2956 - 2954⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2960
→Take Profit 1 2948
↨
→Take Profit 2 2942
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2873
→Take Profit 1 2885
↨
→Take Profit 2 2891
GOLD INTRADAY Key Trading Level at 2,900Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key Trading Level: 2,900
Resistance Level 1: 2,927 (intraday swing high and trendline resistance)
Resistance Level 2: 2,940
Resistance Level 3: 2,955
Support Level 1: 2,870
Support Level 2: 2,830
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GOLD → The calm before the NFP torm! What’s next?OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading within the 2926 - 2894 range, signaling a pause after its recent strong uptrend. If a false support breakdown occurs, the market could quickly revert, especially amid signs of a recovering USD.
However, a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve policy shift toward easing continue to support gold demand. Despite the temporary suspension of Trump’s tariff measures, the precious metal remains in focus as a safe-haven asset.
Traders are now closely watching the NFP report, which could dictate the dollar’s future trajectory and influence Fed policy decisions. In the short term, attention will be on Initial Jobless Claims data, which may provide early signals about the U.S. labor market.
Technical Outlook
-Gold remains within the 2926 - 2894 range, potentially testing liquidity near the 2894 support zone.
-An unfilled fair value gap (FVG) below 2894 could lead to a brief dip before a rebound.
-Given the bullish long-term trend in gold and the ongoing dollar weakness, the probability of a price recovery remains high.
In this scenario, gold may fake out a breakdown, grab liquidity near support, and then resume its broader uptrend.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
GOLD Analysis: Bearish Below 2922, Market Awaits CPI & PPI📊 GOLD Analysis & Market Focus – March 7, 2025
Market sentiment remains volatile amid trade tensions as U.S. President Trump warns of tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber. Gold is holding around $2,900, with the potential to retest its $2,956 all-time high from February.
Traders are closely watching the U.S. CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) for interest rate signals, as the Fed is expected to cut rates by June, which could support gold.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold remains bearish while inside the channel and trading below the 2922 pivot.
Bearish scenario: A continuation toward 2895 and 2880 is expected.
Bullish scenario: A 1H candle close above 2922 would signal upside movement, targeting 2934 and 2954.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🔸 Resistance: 2922 | 2934 | 2954
🔹 Pivot Level: 2906
🔻 Support: 2895 | 2880 | 2859
Gold looks ready for a sell off toward 2860Currently, the price of gold is at the Point of Control (POC) level, which suggests that we may see some weakness in the market. Based on my analysis, I expect a pullback towards the 2860 level. This is supported by a Wyckoff distribution pattern that indicates sellers are gaining strength, especially since we've observed a lower high around the 2906 level.
Stay tuned for more updates!
Up Coming Week Gold Long Trime Prediction and Analysis Here is my new week Gold Targets
Resistance Area 2989/2986
Support Zoon 2885/2880 And I'm Expecting That Gold Nothing More can move in Down So My Target is 2950/2970 Gold Can Go And Come Down at 2900 so Let's Wait For Gold Market open And let's see what Gold Will do
Gold strategy layout and operation suggestions for next weekAt present, the international gold price is in a range of fluctuations, and the game between long and short forces in the market has intensified. Technically, the gold price has formed a key suppression at the 2930 line. This position is the starting point of the previous decline. After several unsuccessful attacks, this resistance level has put obvious pressure on the short-term gold price. If it can break through effectively, it may launch an attack on the 2955 mark; on the contrary, if it encounters resistance and falls back, the lower support level will move to the 2900-2895 US dollar area.
Technical indicators release bearish signals:
From the daily chart, the gold price has ended the previous two days of continuous positive rebound and turned into a weak oscillation pattern. The price fluctuation has narrowed to near the middle track of Bollinger, indicating that the market direction is temporarily unclear. However, multiple indicators at the 4-hour level show consistent bearish signals: the KDJ indicator is blunted at a low level to form a clear downward momentum, and the MACD fast and slow lines turn downward and are accompanied by the release of bearish energy, suggesting that the gold price may continue the correction trend. In addition, MA5 and MA10 in the moving average system form a dead cross, further strengthening the short-term bearish expectations.
Gold operation suggestions for next week: short near rebound 2925-2930, stop loss 2938, target 2905
Gold Intraday Expectations Long/BuyGold trading at 2904.xx when we were publishing the analysis.
Gold has challenged PDL 2894 moved below to 2892.xx and bounced sharply to 2905 by now. As per our readings we have 2 important levels today to watch, one is 2992 that is under the consideration that it may break down if gold remains below 2916 and fall towards 2877/2871 can open that can be considered a good buying range/level. On the upside we expect gold can challenge PDH at 2929.
Our analysis suggests fall around 2877/2871 is possible that can be bearish target and from where bounce to 2916/2929 is possible that our Main Goal/Target for now.
Trade as per your plan and if you like our idea do share your feedback.
Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news this week:
Impact of non-farm data:
The US non-farm payrolls in February increased by 151,000, lower than the expected 160,000, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, and the annual rate of hourly wages increased by 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.1%. After the data was released, the market fluctuated violently, and the US dollar index fell first and then rebounded, and finally plunged about 40 points, reaching a low of 103.4554. Spot gold rose by $9 to 2920 in 1 minute, and then gave up the gains, falling to a low of 2904 and then rising again, reaching a high of 2930.
Federal Reserve policy expectations:
The current interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, and the market expects a 75 basis point rate cut this year. The bet on a rate cut in May has not completely subsided due to weak data. Powell's economic outlook speech will become a weather vane. If he downplays the risk of recession and emphasizes waiting and watching, the US dollar may stabilize near 103; if he is dovish and confirms easing, DXY may fall to 101.90, and gold is expected to challenge 2950.
Gold technical analysis
Short-term trend:
On Monday and Tuesday this week, the big sun continued to rise, and on Wednesday and Thursday, it was at a high level. The closing line was a long lower shadow K bottoming out and rising, always above the short-term moving average, and it was still strong in the short term. On Friday morning, the price first fell sharply to induce a short-selling situation. The European session continued to rise, or bottomed out and rose, waiting for the closing break of 2890-2930.
Key support and resistance:
The middle track supports the gains and losses of the 2900 line. If it is held, it will maintain a strong consolidation, and if it cannot be held, it will be adjusted downward. The key support below is 2906, 2884-85, and the resistance is 2920-30. Only by effectively breaking through and standing above 2930 can the upside be further opened.
Operation suggestions:
Before breaking through and standing on 2930, do not rush to chase the rise at a high position. Be patient and wait for a wave of squatting to stabilize and bullish, or wait for the strong attack to stabilize above 2930, and step back to confirm the stable bullish. After standing on 2930, the upper targets are 2942, 2956, and a new historical high.
Comprehensive suggestions
Short-term operation ideas: mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by short on rebounds.
Short-term focus on the upper side: 2930-2935 first-line resistance.
Short-term focus on the lower side: 2895-2890 first-line support.
Summary
The analysis of gold market trends next week shows that despite the large market fluctuations, the overall trend is still strong. Investors should pay close attention to key support and resistance levels and operate flexibly to cope with market changes.
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts