XAUUSD:12/11 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2710, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2638, support below 2580
Gold operation suggestions:
Today's upper short-term resistance is around 2626, and strong resistance is around 2638~2640. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue the main short and follow the trend to look down. The lower target is still concerned about the new bottom. Before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position, any pullback is a short-selling opportunity. Keep the main tone of following the trend unchanged. Short-term support focuses on the integer mark of 2600 points
SELL:2610near SL:2613
SELL:2638near SL:2641
SELL:2626near SL:2730
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Xauusd(w)
Gold’s Pullback May Signal New Buying OpportunityGold began the week on a weak note, with its price dropping by around 200 pips from peak to trough.
However, as I mentioned in my Friday analysis, a potential bottom may be forming, giving bulls hope for a recovery.
Currently, Gold is trading precisely within a former resistance zone that now acts as support.
As long as this level holds, there is a favorable outlook for a reversal.
For now, I remain optimistic about a rebound, with potential for the price to climb back above 2700.
Levels discussed during livestream 12th November12th November
DXY: Could consolidate/retrace slightly, but for continuation higher to 106.10, beyond that, could retest resistance of 106.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5950 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.65 SL 25 TP 100
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2785 SL 30 TP 100
EURUSD: Sell 1.0590 SL 40 TP 140
USDJPY: Buy 154.90 SL 35 TP 110
USDCHF: Buy 0.8845 SL 30 TP 75
USDCAD: Buy 1.40 SL 40 TP 140
Gold: Breaking 2600, below 2585 could trade down to 2570 and 2550
XAUUSD trading plan with focus on the 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) is on the 2nd straight red day following Friday's rejection, which is in contrast to Thursday's promising rebound and green 1D candle it showed on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, the trend remains bullish within the 5-month Channel Up and our 2800 Target remains intact. As you can see, especially if we observe the 1D RSI fractals, it is a similar (a-e) sequence to the February 14 - May 01 2024 uptrend. Right now it appears that this is phase (e) on the 1D MA50 with the RSI in the lower levels of neutrality (almost bearish).
If on the other hand Gold closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (which will be the first time since July 02, more than 4 months), we will take the small loss on the buy and short instead, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with a current Target at 2560 (but can change to adapt on the 1D MA100).
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XAUUSD: Bottom of the Channel Up, RSI almost oversold. Buy.Gold turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.369, MACD = 1.240, ADX = 48.026) as is closed yesterday below the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 4 months (July 2nd). The downtrend is the bearish wave of the May 20th Channel Up and is so far the strongest of the pattern. Technically Gold is a buy for as long as the 1D MA100 holds. Also the 1D RSI is the closest it's been to the 30.000 oversold level since October 6th 2023. Naturally that makes it a strong buy opportunity. Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,705).
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Wednesday Gold 100% Analysis Alert!Attention traders! XAUUSD is on fire, setting new highs with precision! Check this out:
XAUUSD Insight: Locked in a fierce contest between 2691 and 2600. Is a breakout near?
Downside Watch: Stay cautious for potential drops if it dips below this range! Targets: 2688, 2685.
Upside Watch: Look for buying signals if it rises above! Targets: 2605, 2611.
XAUUSDHere is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for.
Since our last analysis on XAUUSD , gold has dropped from the break of 2678 all the way down to the targeted 2600 (KDZ) Key Demand Zone . We have dug deeper, 2590 to be exact. This is our new KL (Key Level) . We are expecting one of the two outcomes.
Scenario 1: BUYS
We are trading above 2590 with failing to break it, and we are starting to see some sellers exhaustion. Gold starts to turn and breaks above 2624 and continues breaking above other key levels.
Scenario 2: SELLS
We broke 2590 and are targeting our next KL (Key Level) 2650 . Breaking this key level would result in even deeper pullbacks down to 2530 .
The direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. Be patient and stay tuned for possible scalps on this pair.
Expect a signal regarding this soon. If you want to join our channel for free, message us.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD came to our KDZ (Key Demand Zone) 2600.
- XAUUSD has dropped to lower areas (2590).
- Trading above 2590 and breaking above would result in buys.
- Breaks below 2590 would result in Scenario 2 unfolding.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Gold trading strategy november 12Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices fell to $2,600, or a fresh one-month low, heading into Tuesday’s European session on continued buying of the US dollar (USD). Investors remained hopeful that US President-elect Donald Trump’s expected expansionary policies could boost economic growth and boost inflation, limiting the scope for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. This sent US Treasury yields higher, further supporting the greenback and dragging the non-yielding yellow metal lower for a third straight day.
It was also the fourth negative move in the past five days for safe-haven gold, which appeared unaffected by concerns that Trump’s protectionist stance could spark a trade war. It will now be interesting to see whether the shorts retain control or choose to reduce their bets ahead of speeches from a host of influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, on Thursday. In addition, US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday will be looked at for clues on the Fed's rate cut path and provide fresh impetus to XAU/USD.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices broke the last support zone of 2606 and headed towards the 2582-2580 zone. Waiting for gold to close below the 2606 area on m30 and SELL signals to be established towards the 268x zone. Waiting for the early US session if the front port zone around 2592 is broken, then hold the sell signal to 258x. If it fails to break 2592, close SELL BUY at the beginning of the short scalp session back to zone 06 and continue SELL to trade within the range.
XAUUSD: 2600 support level is in focus, will it hold?Hello all dear XAUUSD traders!
Gold price today is trading at $2,620/ounce, down sharply by $64 from the previous day's opening price of $2,684/ounce.
Gold fell mainly due to the US dollar holding its position at a 4-month high around 105.5 points. In the same view, Daniel Ghali (analyst at TD Securities) agrees that the possibility of high tariffs applied during Donald Trump's presidency and the demand to hold USD are putting pressure on gold prices, as it is also related to the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may delay cutting interest rates.
Technically, the price is reversing and intends to test the liquidity zones at the bottom...
Emphasis on dynamic support at 2600. A consolidation before a breakdown is forming. If the price breaks this support level, selling pressure may increase. I do not rule out another attempt to retest resistance, say 2680-2685 before continuing lower following the classic structure as mentioned on the chart. Overall, both fundamentally and technically, the market feels in favor of the bears...
XAUUSD, 15-MINUTES TIMEFRAME CHARTXAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
General outlook
XAUUSD has been under selling pressure within the last day . The pair moved up to the level of 2,590.00.
Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a buy order at 2,592.
Set your stop loss at 2,585. below the previous low ($7.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,625. ($32.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
Gold price continues the trend of discountsToday, gold prices persist in their downward trend, trading around the 2623 USD mark.
Gold remains under significant pressure, largely due to the U.S. dollar’s strength and a surge in investor risk appetite. This shift is driven by market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious approach under the new administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
From a trend perspective, on the 1D chart, gold appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. If completed, this pattern suggests a potential drop to the target area around 2500 USD.
That's my personal analysis and perspective. Now, what’s your take on the future of gold prices?
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete.
OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election.
News point
The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election.
On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats.
In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices.
Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations.
Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon.
Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border.
About monetary policy
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory.
Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside.
The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead.
On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548.
During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,640USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is also slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,589.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and also slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,555.36
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 2,641.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
XAUUSDHere is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential short opportunity.
We broke our Key Level mentioned in our channel 2678 . Breaking below it, resulted in a price drop and a clear direction setup. We are now targeting our next KL (Key Level) at 2650 and if broken, we could very easily revisit 2600s (2604.700) to be exact. Overall we will be looking for sells at this point, even though we are extremely bullish on XAUUSD. 2600s is a key demand zone and we could continue back up from there.
Expect a signal regarding this soon, join our channel. Message us.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD broke 2678 and dug deeper in the price.
- Break of 2650 (our next KL) would result in more sells.
- Possible revisits of the key demand zone at 2600s.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Gold Set to Form “W” Bottom Based on the current price action, there is potential for a “W” bottom to form. If this pattern plays out, today’s high should surpass yesterday’s 2626. However, if the price falls below 2690, the key support levels to watch will be between 2578-2573. I personally believe the probability of this scenario is low.
Therefore, the strategy is to buy, but it’s essential to control position size and allow for some flexibility in case of unexpected adverse movements. Remain agile, seize the rebound opportunity, and manage risk effectively.
The $2680 Question: Will Gold Correct or Continue to Fall?The current chart setup for Gold is decidedly bearish: we’re seeing a breakdown through key support and a local low. This is clear and hard to miss. Retail traders are diving in, buying the dip, and they’re not in a rush to close their long positions, hoping to ride it out. This sentiment is actually quite good for the bearish trend.
That said, when we zoom out and look at the bigger picture, a potential correction to around $2680 is on the radar. It might not happen, of course; I’m not a fortune teller. But it’s definitely a possibility worth considering.
Here’s the reasoning behind this potential correction scenario:
We have a solid liquidity level where buyers could be lurking, and there were compelling visual cues to establish positions there (uptrend + buying after a pullback + following a strong bullish candle). Plus, the open data backs this up (see attached screen)
So, if we do see that correction materialize, I’ll be looking to open some shorts at that level.
GOLD TO THE MOON AGAINGold has shown retracement from his daily fair value gap, resulting in choppy market at H4 time frame, and showing a Change of Characters/ Market structure shift at M15 timeframe, which indicates that gold is now looking to give long possitions.
wait for the price to break above 2602, to find good long opportunities