Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Xauusd(w)
XAUUSD. Where to wait for the buyer's resumption?Hello traders and investors!
The price of gold is correcting. Let's take a look at where a reversal of the correction might occur for potential buy opportunities.
On the weekly chart, the last impulse started from the level of 2604.39. The key bar of the impulse (the one with the highest volume) is at its base. Currently, the price is within the range of this bar, but I don't see increased volumes on the daily timeframe. On the contrary, the volumes of the last three days are decreasing. Is there no buyer? We are waiting for the price to interact with the 2604.39 level, where a buyer might appear.
The next interesting range for a potential buyer resurgence is 50% of the last buyer's impulse on the monthly timeframe, which is at 2538.5.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
XAUUSD Declines: Resistance at 2,715 & USD Pressure!
XAUUSD is in a downtrend, with key support around 2,470 after failing to sustain recent gains.
The price is hovering near 2,606.855 and may drop further if it cannot break through resistance at 2,715. This downward momentum is reinforced by the strength of the USD and expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates high, diminishing gold’s short-term appeal.
Geopolitical tensions may temporarily boost demand for gold, but they are unlikely to offset the impact of U.S. monetary policy.
Investors should closely monitor inflation data and Fed updates, as these will be crucial in determining the next direction for XAUUSD.
Trade Plan- No. 1 (Technical + Fundamental)Several weeks ago I indicated that "Bear Market: 2024 United States presidential election, Nov 5, 2024"
What happened next?
Greed kills!
Gold-Trade Plan (No. (1))
Short-Term overview
Bias: Bearish
price: 2668 , 1 Ethereum = 1.18642 XAU (Nov 11, 2024)
Stop level: $ 2700
Target-1: $ 2595
Target-2: $ 2515
Fundamental:
Bearish!
Levels discussed on 11th November Livestream11th November
DXY: Consolidating along 105, look for break out above 105.15 to reach high of 105.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5955 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 25 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2830 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.0660 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Buy 153.80 SL 40 TP 80
USDCHF: Buy 0.8790 SL 25 TP 80
USDCAD: Do Nothing
Gold: Could range between 2660 and 2644
GOLD: Navigating the Effects of Inflation and Treasury YieldsGold prices have declined for the second consecutive day, influenced by a variety of factors. The ongoing optimism surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies continues to bolster the US Dollar (USD), which is exerting downward pressure on the precious metal. The price of gold (XAU/USD) is building on the significant losses incurred last week and remains under selling pressure as trading commences on Monday, influenced by the prevailing bullish sentiment towards the USD.
The promise of expansive economic policies from President-elect Trump has kept the USD near a four-month high reached last week, which is a significant factor dampening demand for gold. Additionally, Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all US imports is anticipated to ignite inflationary pressures, limiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to implement aggressive rate cuts. This environment is supportive of rising US Treasury bond yields, further incentivizing investors to move away from the non-yielding gold.
From a technical standpoint, we are eyeing potential scalp opportunities near the first demand zone around 2,600. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail investors are taking long positions, whereas institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are positioned inversely. The strengthening dollar and our analysis point to a likely bearish trend ahead. Additionally, we have previously opened a short position in Silver (details available on our TradingView profile) as we anticipated this type of scenario unfolding for precious metals.
In summary, the combination of robust USD performance and inflationary expectations looks set to keep gold under pressure in the near term.
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Gold's Bearish Trend Persists: More Declines Ahead?As the week kicks off, gold continues its downward adjustment, slipping by over 130 pips and currently hovering around the $2,670 mark. In the short term, this precious metal appears likely to extend its losses.
Sentiment among both analysts and retail investors has turned cautious after an extended period of optimism. The technical outlook suggests gold remains firmly in a downtrend, with last week’s sell-off fueled by a resurgent USD and rising bond yields.
Gold may face further declines in the near future. While the long-term uptrend for this metal is still intact, a significant correction seems inevitable. Even with potential rate cuts in the U.S., strong demand for gold is not guaranteed. Thus, I believe the downward trend may continue.
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
Gold Analysis November 11Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices held firm around the $2,672-$2,670 range as they entered the European session on Monday, looking vulnerable to extending their recent pullback from an all-time high hit on October 31. The US dollar (USD) remained slightly below a four-month peak hit last Thursday amid optimism over Donald Trump’s expected expansionary policies, becoming the main factor weighing on the commodity for the second straight day.
In the meantime, investors appear to believe that Trump’s policies could boost economic growth and boost inflation, while limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease aggressively. This has helped keep US Treasury yields high and contributed to outflows from non-yielding gold. However, a lighter risk appetite could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD as traders await US consumer inflation data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech later this week.
Technical Analysis
The key breakout zone of 2663-2665 acts as immediate support in the European session on Monday. When this zone is broken, we will not buy half and wait for a retest to sell the breakout to the 2643 zone. When the price bounces strongly from the 2670 zone, the trend is that we will wait to buy when there are Dow breakout points. Our targets are around the 2706 and 2726 zones for SELL plans.
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
Monday XAUUSD Breakout Alert!Attention traders! XAUUSD is on fire, setting new highs with precision! Check this out:
XAUUSD Insight: Locked in a fierce contest between 2683 and 2688. Is a breakout near?
Downside Watch: Stay cautious for potential drops if it dips below this range! Targets: 2676, 2669.
Upside Watch: Look for buying signals if it rises above! Targets: 2693, 2697.
Bearish trend, the lower target is around 2600Gold daily line fell below a new low again. After a short rebound was blocked, it began to fall. After a short correction, it was ready to break the low again to open the falling wave, and at the same time pulled the indicator to turn downward. The short-term market is expected to repair the rise, and the trading strategy is to maintain the rebound short position.
Gold 4-hour moving average continues to cross the downward short position arrangement. The decline of gold is far from over. After gold fell below the last low of 2643, gold now 2643 has become a resistance to suppress gold's rise. Gold continues to be sold below 2643 in the Asian session. Gold rebounds near 2640 and can be sold.
First support: 2603, second support: 2592, third support: 2578
First resistance: 2633, second resistance: 2642, third resistance: 2658
Trading strategy:
BUY:2602-2604
SELL:2640-2642
XAUUSD (Gold) - Major Breakdown Expected, Targeting 2600Gold (XAU/USD) is currently showing signs of exhaustion after a prolonged bullish rally that has taken the price above $2,700. Based on technical indicators and key levels, we are approaching a critical juncture where a major breakdown could be imminent.
Key Levels and Targets:
Bounce back test: $2,474
This level represents a possible short-term rebound zone before the downtrend resumes. It aligns with previous minor support, acting as a key resistance for now.
Critical Break-Down Level: $2,720
The price has been hovering around $2,720, which is a crucial support level. A daily or weekly close below this level would likely confirm a stronger downward move.
Ultimate Target: $2,600
Once the break of $2,720 is confirmed, the next major target stands at $2,600. This level represents a deeper retracement in line with the completion of a larger cycle of profit-taking in the broader market.
Technical Indicators:
RSI Divergence: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bearish divergence, signaling a potential reversal from overbought conditions.
Bearish Flag Pattern: There is a bearish flag forming, which typically precedes a strong breakdown. The current price action fits within this pattern, further supporting a potential downside move.
Scenario Planning:
Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break below $2,720 is expected to trigger a quick move down to $2,600. At this point, it would confirm a reversal in the current rally, potentially signaling the end of the ongoing bull trend.
Bullish Scenario (Less Likely): If prices manage to hold above $2,720 and break above the resistance at $2,748, the bull trend could resume, possibly testing the previous highs.
#XAUUSD 1DAYXAUUSD Daily Analysis
The XAUUSD (Gold) pair is currently trading near a key support level on the daily chart and has recently formed a bullish engulfing pattern at this area. This combination suggests strong buying interest, as the support area and bullish engulfing candle indicate a potential reversal to the upside.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Support Area with Bullish Engulfing
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Buy near the support area and bullish engulfing candle
Traders may consider entering a buy position near this support level, targeting higher resistance zones above. Additional confirmation from indicators like RSI indicating oversold conditions or MACD showing upward momentum could further validate this setup, supporting a bullish outlook for XAUUSD.
Gold Prices Plummet Today (November 12)Global gold prices have dropped significantly, mainly due to the strong rise of the US dollar and an increasing willingness among investors to take on risk. The primary reason is that the market is expecting a cautious policy stance from the Federal Reserve under the leadership of President-elect Donald Trump, which has boosted investor confidence in economic stability and reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Looking at the technical chart, the EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines have not shown any signs of reversal, indicating that the downward trend in gold prices is still intact. Currently, the nearest resistance is at 2,706, while solid support is at 2,609. If gold continues to face selling pressure at the resistance zone, the likelihood of a deeper decline towards the support level at 2,609 is quite high. There is even a chance that gold could break through this support level if it revisits the resistance at 2,661.
Will gold prices continue to fall, or will there be a reversal in the future? What do you think?
XAUUSD - Where to next for gold?Most of you who know me know i have been posting this particular chart for months now and 2775 was always the target of current htf range (wicks above expected).
2775 was reached and price backed away from it for the weekly close.
If we look back at previous ranges this could entail a full range retrace back to 2615... first i will be looking for price reaction approx mid range around the 2700 area.
GOLD SELLING ZONE WITH CPI AHEAD 4HRHELLO TRADERS
As I can see Gold on shorter TF it could drop till these levels bestselling zone drawn based on technical re-test after breakout to downside on channel and tested fib Golden ratio 0.50 Friends chart is easy and simple to read technically we can see a stronger DXY pulling toward 106.00 levels geopolitical issue are going on but technically its was overbought and Weekley RSI above on 70 zone incoming strong CPI Data can make some volatile moves in markets this week Russian president Putin Continue talk with Trump on Ukraine War Friends it's just a trade idea only based on technical analysis share Ur thoughts with us and Stay Tuned for more updates
XAUUSD / TRADING DEMAND ZONE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Time Frame and Initial Target , The analysis is based on a 4-hour (4H) chart, which is commonly used for short- to medium-term trading insights, A previous target was reached with a +550 pip profit due to a decline to the demand zone, implying successful movement in line with expectations.
Current Price Movement , Prices are trying to reach $2,605 in the demand zone , As long as prices remain above this level, there is potential for an increase, likely moving toward a supply zone between $2,687 and $2,708.
Possible Downside , If prices break below and stabilize under $2,605, this could signal a further decline to the next demand zone between $2,565 and $2,551.
Overall Market Pressure , The trend shows upward pressure, but breaking the demand zone between $2,565 and $2,551 could confirm a downtrend, indicating a bearish shift if support does not hold.
Gold Bearish Trend Analysis
Here’s an analysis for US30 Empire on why we believe Gold will continue to go down:
Gold Bearish Trend Analysis
We believe Gold is likely to continue its downward trajectory for several reasons, as outlined below:
Stronger US Dollar: Gold typically moves inversely to the strength of the US dollar. Recently, the US dollar has gained momentum due to positive economic data, including stronger-than-expected employment numbers and steady GDP growth. As the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, leading to reduced demand and a price decline.
Rising Interest Rates: While inflation has shown signs of slowing, central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, have kept interest rates relatively high. Rising rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, as investors seek better returns in interest-bearing assets such as bonds. This continued environment of high rates pressures gold prices downward.
Diminishing Safe-Haven Demand: During times of heightened market uncertainty, gold often acts as a safe-haven asset. However, as global economic conditions stabilize and investors show increasing confidence in risk assets like equities, the demand for gold as a hedge against risk declines. This shift in sentiment puts downward pressure on gold prices.
Technical Indicators: From a technical standpoint, gold has recently broken below key support levels, confirming a bearish trend. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is also showing signs of being overbought, indicating that a pullback is due. Additionally, moving averages are indicating downward momentum, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Reduced Inflation Fears: While inflation was a major driver for gold in the past, the recent easing of inflationary pressures reduces the need for gold as an inflation hedge. As inflation expectations moderate, gold loses its primary appeal, contributing to downward price movement.