Xauusd:Waiting to choose the direction
Due to the strong performance of U.S. economic data, U.S. Treasury bonds continued to rise strongly, while the dollar index rebounded slightly after falling for a few days.Next will be the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for October released today. Wall Street expects personal consumption expenditures inflation to decline slightly, and investors hope that U.S. inflation will continue to cool steadily.PCE inflation is expected to be 0.2%, while the annualized inflation rate in October was 3.56%, compared with 3.7% in September. It is expected that the inflation rate will continue to decrease compared to October and will continue to boost the dollar.
In the upcoming 2024, the United States is likely to complete the transition from interest rate hike to interest rate cut cycle. Judging from current market expectations, there is a high probability that interest rate cuts will occur in May and June. According to CME Fed Watch data, the current market believes that the Fed will start the interest rate cut cycle in May next year. The probability is about 60%, and it is expected that interest rates will fall by about 100 basis points by the end of 2024.
The recent crazy gold rally fell from 2051 to 2035 yesterday, but the decline was really a bit too small, and the overall upward trend has not been broken.
From the indicator point of view, the daily chart is still in the overbought zone, and the MACD speed line of the 4-hour chart has formed a decline. These are signals of gradual amplification of short-term pressure.At the same time, the position of 2051 is also the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the rising band from the starting point of 1810 to 2009.
The upper track of the 1H upstream channel was broken through yesterday and then pulled back, and today it continues to be blocked under pressure.Strategically, we still have to observe the adjustment intensity here. If gold has not been able to fall below 2030, it means that the chance of rising again is very high.
Considering that the U.S. PCE for October is about to be announced today, the expectation given by the data market is that it will be beneficial to gold. If the data is beneficial to gold without a big rise, it will be safer to sell later.
So we still try to start selling above 2045, the stop loss is set at 2052, and the support below focuses on 2027-2037. If there is a signal to stop falling, we can also buy.
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