XGY0
FXI OppertunityChina had a monstrous collapse in 2015, after that rally it is now showing some short term weakness. The problems they face are currency, slowing growth, and house prices.
I believe that house price may effect stock prices but it shouldn't be something that effects the whole market because the problem is evident, when we know about the problem we protect against it making the problem minor and we can see that being addressed.
The slow growth is concerning but anything over 3% is still faster than we will get here and they still have plenty of room for interest rate cuts and stimulus. Much of their debt is held in their own currency so that is manageable.
The biggest concern is there currency situation, however once again everyone knows about it therefore it is being addressed thus not an issue.
Technically there is a large invHS for a long set up. This is a position for a couple years to trade around.
To be clear I'm an optimism and I take this as a longToday, I'm showing you guys shanghai composite index chart which is measured by DXY. I'm not calling the end of world or something pessimism. As we can see, the index is lack of the 7th. swing before touching down ideal inflection zone. Last week China CPI data fallen to 1.8%. Now the CPI tends to be falling lower which is too low for achieving GDP target. We got clearly warning from Deputy governor of the people's bank of China Mr. Yigang. We got USDCNY weekly closed high enough to break out for it's final target around 7.2 (head- shoulder PO 6.0-6.6-7.2). It's going to be ugly for global indexes when it breaks out. I'm feeling something familiar in the market before last year's striking. A squeezing is incoming again. Take care.
Elliott wave analysis on Shanghai Class A Index (2016-04-24)Shanghai class A index is coming to a resistance level at around 3166~3280. It also meets a resistance from the bearish trend line.
From EW analysis the previous ABC correction might be part of the DIAGONAL TRIANGLES. It will be a good opportunity to go long after the wave E is finished which might go back to 2650~2750. After finishing the wave E, it might bounce up to 3738 and higher.
Good luck for everyone!
Notes: If it breaks the bearish trend line, the diagonal triangle will be invalid. It will be safe to join the long which might continue going up to 3738 and higher.
Shanghai Class A index: Bulls losing steamThe Shanghai Class A index is showing some bearish signals at the moment.
Even then, there's still a chance to resume the daily uptrend if price marches back up above the recent 12 bar price level at 3140.86.
Ideally, we'd see a loss of bearish momentum in the next 3 bars, and then a breakout to the upside firmly closing above 3232.329 ideally, as the first precedent for higher lows.
On the other hand, to confirm bearish momentum, we'd need to see 2966.49 within the next 3 bars.
If long chinese equities, you'd consider closing partially, selling calls, moving stops in profit, to protect your profits (if any).
Sentiment has been extremely negative for equities this week, reaching a peak on Friday, so I assume a contrarian stance and expect higher highs soon, before any real correction starts.
invst.ly - A50 chart (looks more bullish, a close above 9657.5 might anticipate a strong 12.91% rally to 10880 in 2 weeks.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Short term set upThose who follow me know my opinion for 2016 is not exactly bullish,
but for the purposes of having fun trading, here is a short term set up.
IF CHINA FINISHES UP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROWS ECON REPORTS ARE GOOD.
China, as of writing appears to be up over night.
We finished today with a long legged doji.
People will get greedy and buy on lows.
Happy trading, cheers.
Shanghai composite Class A Index: Uptrend signal failedThe 7 week uptrend present in the index has failed. Now we expect price to drop back to 3339.463 in the coming 7 weeks or earlier. Minimum target would be 3542.160. If it were to drop below 3339.463, it might reach my 8 week downtrend signal's target below, but for now it's early to say.
Price sits right under the 52 week moving average and has clearly found resistance and lost momentum.
Good luck.
Kind regards,
Ivan Labrie.
Recount WAVE 5 (Bearish Market) - Compare WAVE 3 & 5's MACD, WAVE 5 lost momentum compares to WAVE 3, double top formation
- Both Wave 3 of WAVE 5 & Wave 3 of WAVE 3 has RSI extreme reading, support Wave 3 count makes sense
- RSI trendline broke and now RSI is below 50 on weekly chart, which is really bearish
- Comparing time circle of WAVE 3 & 5, it shows WAVE 5 is shorter than WAVE 5 on time period
- Forecast its target on WAVE 4's low which is 1935, according to EW guideline
Shanghai Class B Index Triangle Thrust Still Has Some Room to GoShanghai Class B Shares have thrusted out of a triangle which ended in June 2014.
The index still has just a bit further to rise before reaching the minimum expected upward thrust level, which nearly coincides with the upper trendline drawn through the peaks of 2001 and 2007. Targeting at least 567-586 before the correction ensues.
This action is of probable relevance to the entire Chinese stock market, namely the ongoing parabolic rally in the Shanghai A Shares.
Shanghai Class A Index : Short At 4276 : Extreme Greed Broke out from the triangle and has taken a support over previous high on monthly basis ( month not over ) ....The rise has always been an 76 - 79 degree liftoff -- and the fall has also been steep as well ....Will this setup work on closing April basis ...Any red candle on monthly basis in May would signal a correction to lower channel support...