Looking for petro to zombie about in here in the short term ... . Implied volatility rank isn't as high as I'd like it, but background vol is one of the higher ones out there for exchange traded funds. Metrics: Max Profit: $242/contract Max Loss: $158/contract Break Evens: 37.58/42.42 Notes: Will look to manage at north of 25% max profit.
This track is on repeat. We are seeing oil stock prices breaking out of consolidation. The time is nigh.
SPX and R2K are stretched, and oil has ripped. Buying DRIP tomorrow
Looks like XOP is on its way to close above 2 major resistances. RSI and MACD all looks good. Likely next level is around $43 - $44.
With November OPEC talks designed ostensibly to hammer out proposed output cuts being the binary event for oil in the near-term, I'm looking to either (a) add to bullish positions in petro if those talks fail to result in meaningful cuts (I'm skeptical); or (b) hang on to my current bullish petro plays for the ride higher if those talks actually result in...
Mostly hand-sitting here, but figured I'd take advantage of the increased volatility in the petro sector by selling a bit of premium in XOP, since its IV has popped here. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: 2.46 ($256)/contract Max Loss: 2.54 ($254)/contract Break Evens: 37.46/32.54 Notes: I'll look to take this off at 25% max profit ... .
Breakout (blue line) successfully retested. If you trust the chart this is a strong buy.
While broad market implied volatility has basically been absent (we had one VIX pop to ~20 on 9/12, after which it has receded dramatically), it has remained in the same place as it has for the past several weeks -- in gold, mining, and oil and gas, with a smattering of high IV in individual biotech issues. Here are the top high IV stock and ETF options as of...
Over the years, I have been strategically acquiring stock in SPY and selling calls against to reduce my cost basis in that stock. However, given the fact that SPY looks a bit "stretched" here, I thought I would look to be a little smarter about acquiring and look to "divide and conquer" the market by acquiring in individual sectors instead of the market as a...
In June 2009, XOP gave back 2/3 of gains after interim peak. If history repeats, we may see XOP to drop to $28 level in coming weeks (0.618 Fib), and after that will be a good buying opportunity.
Ugh. In spite of abysmal non-farm payrolls, the week ended with the VIX still in sub-15 territory, meaning that less than 45 DTE premium selling in the broader indices is "off the table" for another week in the absence of something earth-shaking occurring in the markets here. This could come in the form of the most recent "Brexit" referendum poll, which shows...
If you're into oil, my guess is that you're hot to short the stuffing out of this instrument in the vicinity of this $50 level. Me, I'm waiting for a couple of different things to happen. Here's why: First, oil's been an somewhat of a tear (albeit, sputtering in places) off of the April low of 35.22. Shorting here would be against the trend, which has been...
Watch the lines. This chart tells us when to switch from bubble assets to contrarian assets.
Watch the lines. This chart tells us when to switch from bubble assets to contrarian assets.
Here's what I'm looking at for next week: VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will...