Amazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line). Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.
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Not much arbitrage play for Financiers with this yield, which one of the many reasons I am short Banks. Ichimoku not showing any signs of relent.
Looking at the 10yr treasury as a gauge for the overall rate environment and the revised GDP data, I'm predicting the US will see rates rise for roughly the next year before coming to a peak around 3.75% on the 10yr before beginning a new wave lower, just in time for the coming recession in the summer of 2019. Expect to see 30 year fixed US Mortgage rates above...
Corporate high yield spread is approaching a breakout. Idea - long ITE, short JNK or similar
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Looking at forward indicators against the SPY including Copper price, SOX semi-conductor ETF, ADR and Yield curve.
Yield curve inversions preceded recessions and stock market declines (by 3-22 months). fred.stlouisfed.org
If yield curve inverts in 2019, there are four likely outcomes.
IF YOU CAN'T SEE LOWER CHART, PLEASE RIGHT CLICK ON LOWER PRICE AXIS AND SELECT "RESET PRICE SCALE" Dividend Yield to Gold ratio for S&P500 green rectangle: BUY gold red circle: SELL gold
Volume capitulation on Month CAM S3 backtest. $USO $XLF $TLT $IEF $SPY $QQQ $IWM
The Bond Auction went well as expected that could help the Bond Yield which could underpin the Dollar. Bond Auction for the 10Y later today and expecting a Demand>Supply situation as well. EURUSD -0.13% have been ranging between 1.17xx handle and 1.16xx (Accumulation) and I am picking a downward direction if the pair attempts to expand its range for September....
Yield spread of NZD/USD dropped to new lows.
FVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though...
The dividend yield (DY) is simply the amount of money a company pays a shareholder in dividends divided by the share price. It's therefore a measure of value for a stock. A DY < 1 would mean that the shares cost more to by than the shareholder receives in dividends, therefore extremely overvalued. In a bear market, the DY increases very fast. During a bull...
Regarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest...
The SPX volatility so far this year shows some uncertainty over 'fair value'. Based on 2018 earnings estimates from Factset of 160 earnings/share for the SPX, if we divide 160 by the current SPX price the chart reflects what's known as the 'earnings yield'. Shown inversely it is known as the forward P/E ratio. So far this year the SPX earnings yield has...