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Yieldcurveinversion

Interest rates are moving againWhat is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum price fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
Is a crash still possible at all?In this screencast I show two charts where crashes could happen. I focus on Wall Street which - affects markets globally including forex markets. On the weekly time frame US Oil is beginning to struggle at a 61.8% Fib retracement. Wall Street is possibly struggling at an important structure level. A whole lot depends on China. But dig deeper. See the CSI300 losing steam with some RSI divergence. So while one bunch of hopefuls are punching north based on news of the China deal coming to fruition, there are distant influences that could come to bear on Wall Street from the Chinese markets. Then enter the 'inverted yield curve'. fred.stlouisfed.org This is the most reliable indicator of recessions (not necessarily market crashes). I am reliably informed that the inverted yield curve has heralded every economic down turn since the second world war. But life is not so simple. Some say that the yield curve needs to remain inverted for 3 months if it is to be meaningful. Well, I don't know. In any event the Wall Street cycle is overdue its 'economic winter' just based on its own cyclical pattern (which is between 5 to 7 years). We're past year 10 at this point in time. Stock markets head south before recessions are realised.
Short
by Captain_Walker
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