Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
ZB1!
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance.
This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas.
NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing.
LONGS:
HEATING OIL (HO)
GASOLINE (RBOB)
MEXICAN PESO (6M)
SOYBEANS (ZS)
COTTON (CT)
SUGAR (SB)
SHORTS:
EURO CURRENY (6E)
JAPANESE YEN (6J)
SWISS FRANC (6S)
GOLD (GC)
30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB)
Good Luck & Good Trading.
The Monday Sample Pack - SPX500 USOIL BONDS WEAT GOLD BTCA Monday update with all the usual suspects. Liking SP500 for a large bounce, Weat is tasty, OIL to 104 looks good, BONDS sucking wind, GOLD, nice reversal, BTC expecting upside but maybe one more down (along with markets). In general I expect the week to be positive.
Also, GEO is taking off. Good luck!
The post - Powell autopsy SPX500, BTC, USOIL, WEAT, Bonds, USD OK, the last video for the week after the markets got murdered today. Unfortunately I was being optimistic and got caught in a loss - it happens. Other trades are looking good - OIL, BONDS, WEAT especially. BTC looks like it's ready to drop, Gold may too. Both being pressured by the US Dollar. The Dollar rally will continue to make headlines. OK have a great weekend all and see you next week!
Futures Levels | Are Rates Ready To Breakout? (ZN, ZB, ZF)Rates look poised for another attempt at a breakout. Can TINA remain our favorite gal if the 10Y gets above 1.5?
Crude looks good, while the Gold blemish continues.
Fed speak after the FOMC with Yellen & Powell testimony this week. The debt ceiling and an infrastructure bill are on tap for Congress. BTC & ETH are holding up, off the lows from last week.
NQ Short Levels & Short 30Y Bond (ZB1!)A great feature of TradingView is the ability to walk-forward price to see the outcome of our analysis. In this video, I revisit a short idea in the Nasdaq 100 Futures Contract and look at potential support levels now that a minor pullback is underway.
I also highlight a new short position in the 30Y Bond (ZB1!). I misspoke when pulling up the interest rate chart and said 10Y rate when I was looking at the 30Y. The trade is in the 30Y Bond. Rates dropped significantly today following the CPI release.