Zw
Week 13/Su - ZW1! - WeekendMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with wheat futures
Long Term Prospects for WHEATUSDThe WHEATUSD, symbol ZW, is in a rally within a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema and the 200 ema, but below the 800 week ema. The the long term emas are mostly flat, signaling accumulation / distribution. The price action appears to be finishing up the e-wave of a b-wave which should resolve in a c-wave down into late Spring. There is a definite Seasonal aspect to this market with strong rallies that occur around June time frame.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 and 800 emas. The 50 ema is in a strong uptrend along with the long term emas.. Price is topping out in the c-wave of a a-b-c rally and looks like it is putting in a M-Top. Price can be considered to be in an uptrend as long as it is above 549’2.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price trading back above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, and above the 800 ema. Price is now technically correcting, having pulled back to the 30 ema, which is a warning. This market is out of E-waves. Probably trade up in the back end of the coming week to finish out an M-Top formation, before starting a greater down-trend.
This is my WHEATUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
ZW SHORT on 497 Stop on 534Not more than %1 risk on capital, idea is not so brilliant but wort to try.
Guys I am sorry I do not enter detail on how I chosee my positions but I can not give detail. I can just say it is systematic and based on COT and Technical analysis together with aware of my emotions (let's say three leg table).
There are many different type of COT analysis I know but what I use is a little bit different because I do not follow money mnagaers or leveraged funds I follow farmers...
Wheat: Bottom of the pullback spottedI think there's a significant probability that the bottom of the recent correction in Wheat is in. I'm holding longs and now added my final entry a tad lower than this. I expect a rally back over the recent highs very soon. The crops this year suffered due to a significant drought in the regions where wheat is produced in the US. I think it is likely that this situation continues, and we get a strong rally from here onwards. Shout out to Tim West, who correctly diagnosed this situation with prescience in the KHL chatroom.
Promising trade here, potentially similar in scale to the rally that took place in 1988.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
WHEAT in breakout modeI see a weekly break out of a wedge pattern and above Ichimoku clouds for the wheat and expect the 2nd half of 2017 to be very bullish...like a spring being pressured to the max and now being released....Price has started making higher highs and higher lows on a weekly basis.
Comparison of Volatility Indices (Daily)This chart shows the most current values of Volatility Indices for the mostly used Future Underlyings: ES, B6, E6, ZL, ZN, ZC, ZW, Russell etc.
ZL Soybean Short PUT on SoyBean due to seasonal aspects and extreme long positioning of commercial traders, highly raised volatility in the last days
Short PUT on ZW
Volatility has risen in the last days
Commercial Traders are going extremely long since a few weeks
no distribution in the last weeks
Super Bullish on Wheat Master Technical analysis - Lulu Capital
#Fat Wheat Pattern
#Thin Wheat Pattern
#Granary Pattern
#Target 600+
WHEAT close to a YUGE breakoutWheat is testing important long-term cloud and trend line resistance. A breakout above 470-480$ area could signal a very big move ahead. Minimum target will be close to 600$. Must be patient and wait for breakout.
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.
Wheat bullish at lower wedge area or on a breakout above itWith oscillators diverging I will be expecting Wheat to reach 380 or lower again to look for long positions expecting finally a breakout out of the long-term wedge pattern. On the other hand if the low is already in, I will be waiting for a break out above the wedge and above the weekly Ichimoku cloud to go long. The upside is expected to be explosive. For now I remain patient with no position.
