ReutersReuters

Wall St turns lower, gold rebounds amid trade fog; earnings, data loom

Refinitiv3 min read
Key points:
  • Scant clarity as yet on US trade talks
  • Mega-cap earnings, US jobs and GDP data on tap
  • Global recession risk high due to Trump's tariffs, economists say
  • Canadians vote in election dominated by concerns about Trump

U.S. stocks turned lower on Monday, while their European counterparts gained, and gold advanced as investors monitored progress in tariff talks at the top of an eventful week of corporate earnings and economic data.

Tech sector S5INFT weakness, particularly in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of artificial intelligence-related megacaps, weighed heavily on the S&P and Nasdaq as the session progressed, while safe-haven gold rebounded.

"We had a nice rally last week," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "But in the absence of a major positive catalyst I think it's going to be harder for equities to climb much higher from here."

Mayfield called Monday's market gyration "just a little bit of drift, with a lack of catalysts and with a lot concentrated in the back half of the week."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday many top U.S. trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals, adding that China's recent moves to exempt certain U.S. goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies.

"We were at a point where, unless we get a major resolution on the trade front, or big upside from some of the economic data or earnings this week, I think we're in this trading range that I feel we're going to be trapped in for a while," Mayfield said.

Despite hopes for progress, economists polled by Reuters see a high risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs. Three months ago, they projected the world economy growing at a healthy clip.

First-quarter earnings season heats up this week, with Meta Platforms META, Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL and Amazon.com AMZN among the high-profile results on the docket.

While no U.S. economic data were released on Monday, the week is back-end loaded with closely watched indicators such as Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index, an advance take on U.S. GDP and the April employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI fell 34.65 points, or 0.09%, to 40,078.85, the S&P 500 SPX dropped 21.61 points, or 0.39%, to 5,503.37 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC slid 115.55 points, or 0.66%, to 17,267.39.

European shares rose as investors remained optimistic that U.S.-China trade tensions would wane.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe EURONEXT:IACWI rose 0.58 points, or 0.07%, to 825.29.

The pan-European STOXX 600 SXXP index rose 0.53%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index E3X rose 10.13 points, or 0.49%.

Emerging market stocks CBOE:EFS rose 6.01 points, or 0.55%, to 1,103.11. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed higher by 0.59%, to 574.00, while Japan's Nikkei NI225 rose 134.25 points, or 0.38%, to 35,839.99.

U.S. Treasury yields eased ahead of critical earnings and economic data this week.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield US10Y fell 4.4 basis points to 4.222%, from 4.266% late on Friday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR) yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.6981% from 4.738%.

The 2-year note (US2YT=RR) yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 6.9 basis points to 3.693%, from 3.762% late on Friday.

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies as investors awaited further trade talks progress and girded themselves for an eventful week.

The dollar index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.69% to 99.05, with the euro EURUSD up 0.4% at $1.1409.

Against the Japanese yen USDJPY, the dollar weakened 1.03% to 142.19.

Sterling GBPUSD strengthened 0.8% to $1.3421. The Mexican peso USDMXN weakened 0.3% versus the dollar at 19.591.

The Canadian dollar USDCAD strengthened 0.07% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar.

Canadians are going to the polls on Monday after an election campaign in which U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and musings about annexing Canada became the central issue.

Crude oil softened as investors weighed a potential supply increase from OPEC+ amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

U.S. crude CL1! fell 1.54% to settle at $62.05 per barrel, while Brent BRN1! settled at $65.86 per barrel, down 1.51% on the day.

Gold prices advanced in opposition to the easing greenback as bargain-hunting kicked in.

Spot gold GOLD rose 0.92% to $3,348.51 an ounce. U.S. gold futures (GCc1) rose 0.06% to $3,284.50 an ounce.

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