Barclays cuts 2025 Brent crude forecasts on trade tensions, OPEC+ shifts
Barclays lowered its 2025 Brent crude forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel and set its 2026 estimate at $62/b, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" due to escalating trade tensions and shifts in OPEC+'s production strategy, it said in a note on Monday.
Although oil market fundamentals have evolved "significantly better than expected" in early 2025, the bank now forecasts a surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) for this year and 1.5 mb/d for 2026.
"Despite fairly strong spot fundamentals, we think oil prices are likely to be on a rocky road for the months ahead," Barclays said.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | ||
2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
Barclays | $70 | $62 | $66 | $58 | April 28, 2025 |
HSBC | $68.5 | $65 | $65.4 | 62 | April 15, 2025 |
Goldman Sachs | $66 | $58 | $63 | $55 | April 14, 2025 |
BofA | $65 | $70 | $61 | $66 | April 14, 2025 |
JP Morgan | $66 | $58 | $62 | $54 | April 14, 2025 |
Citi | $67 | $65 | $63 | $62 | January 22, 2025 |
Deutsche Bank | $72 | $72 | $68 | $68 | January 15, 2025 |
Morgan Stanley | - | $70 | - | - | January 13, 2025 |
Macquarie | $71 | $64 | $66 | $60 | December 05, 2024 |
BMI | $78 | - | $79 | - | November 07, 2024 |
NAB | $78 | - | - | - | October 06, 2024 |
HSBC | $70 | - | $67 | - | September 30, 2024 |
UBS | $75 | - | $71 | - | September 16, 2024 |
DNB | $77 | - | - | August 20, 2024 | |
* indicates end-of-period forecast
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see (OILPOLL)
