E9 PLRRThe E9 PLRR (Power Law Residual Ratio) is a custom-built indicator designed to evaluate the overvaluation or undervaluation of an asset, specifically by utilizing logarithmic price data and a power law-based model. It leverages a dynamic regression technique to assess the deviation of the current price from its expected value, giving insights into how much the price deviates from its long-term trend.
This indicator is primarily used to detect market extremes and cycles, often used in the analysis of long-term price movements in assets like Bitcoin, where cyclical behavior and significant price deviations are common.
This chart is back from 2019 and shows (From left to right) 2018 Bear market bottom at $3.5k (Dark Blue) , following a peak at 12k (dark red) before the Covid crash back down to EUROTLX:4K (Dark blue)
Key Components
Logarithmic Price Data:
The indicator works with logarithmic price data (ohlc4), which represents the average of open, high, low, and close prices. The logarithmic transformation is crucial in financial modeling, especially when analyzing long-term price data, as it normalizes exponential price growth patterns.
Dynamic Exponent 𝑘:
The model calculates a dynamic exponent k using regression, which defines the power law relationship between time and price. This exponent is essential in determining the expected power law price return and how far the current price deviates from that expected trend.
Power Law Price Return:
The power law price return is computed using the dynamic exponent
k over a defined period, such as 365 days (1 year). It represents the theoretical price return based on a power law relationship, which is used to compare against the actual logarithmic price data.
Risk-Free Rate:
The indicator incorporates an adjustable risk-free rate, allowing users to model the opportunity cost of holding an asset compared to risk-free alternatives. By default, the risk-free rate is set to 0%, but this can be modified depending on the user's requirements.
Volatility Adjustment:
A key feature of the PLRR is its ability to adjust for price volatility. The indicator smooths out short-term price fluctuations using a moving average, helping to detect longer-term cycles and trends.
PLRR Calculation:
The core of the indicator is the calculation of the Power Law Residual Ratio (PLRR). This is derived by subtracting the expected power law price return and risk-free rate from the logarithmic price return, then multiplying the result by a user-defined multiplier.
Color Gradient:
The PLRR values are represented visually using a color gradient. This gradient helps the user quickly identify whether the asset is in an undervalued, fair value, or overvalued state:
Dark Blue to Light Blue: Indicates undervaluation, with increasing blue tones representing a higher degree of undervaluation.
Green to Yellow: Represents fair value, where the price is aligned with the expected power law return.
Orange to Dark Red: Indicates overvaluation, with increasing red tones representing a higher degree of overvaluation.
Zero Line:
A zero line is plotted on the indicator chart, serving as a reference point. Values above the zero line suggest potential overvaluation, while values below indicate potential undervaluation.
Dots Visualization:
The PLRR is plotted using dots, with each dot color-coded based on the PLRR value. This dot-based visualization makes it easier to spot significant changes or reversals in market sentiment without overwhelming the user with continuous lines.
Bar Coloring:
The chart’s bars are colored in accordance with the PLRR value at each point in time, making it visually clear when an asset is potentially overvalued or undervalued.
Indicator Functionality
Cycle Identification : The E9 PLRR is especially useful for identifying cyclical market behavior. In assets like Bitcoin, which are known for their boom-bust cycles, the PLRR can help pinpoint when the market is likely entering a peak (overvaluation) or a trough (undervaluation).
Overvaluation and Undervaluation Detection: By comparing the current price to its expected power law return, the PLRR helps traders assess whether an asset is trading above or below its fair value. This is critical for long-term investors seeking to enter the market at undervalued levels and exit during periods of overvaluation.
Trend Following: The indicator helps users identify the broader trend by smoothing out short-term volatility. This makes it useful for both momentum traders looking to ride trends and contrarian traders seeking to capitalize on market extremes.
Customization
The E9 PLRR allows users to fine-tune several parameters based on their preferences or specific market conditions:
Lookback Period:
The user can adjust the lookback period (default: 100) to modify how the moving average and regression are calculated.
Risk-Free Rate:
Adjusting the risk-free rate allows for more realistic modeling of the opportunity cost of holding the asset.
Multiplier:
The multiplier (default: 5.688) amplifies the sensitivity of the PLRR, allowing users to adjust how aggressively the indicator responds to price movements.
This indicator was inspired by the works of Ashwin & PlanG and their work around powerLaw. Thank you. I hall be working on the calculation of this indicator moving forward to make improvements and optomisations.
Bitcointrend
BTC hash rate oscillatorOVERVIEW:
This script looks to identify entry point opportunities when moving averages over Bitcoin's hash rate are indicative of Miner capitulation. The script implements an oscillator based on Charles Capriole's "Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms" concept. It analyses the short-term and long-term moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate and then identifies potential entry opportunities from this.
KEY FEATURES:
Signal Generation: The script identifies entry points when the short-term moving average crosses under the long-term moving average and the rate of change falls below a specified threshold. These conditions suggest potential trading opportunities.
Historical Signals: Optionally the script displays historical signals, indicating past instances where hash rate conditions suggested favourable entry points. Users can also assess the script's historical performance.
USAGE:
The generated opportunities can be used as potential entry points for BTC. The script provides visual cues on the chart (blue labels above the miner capitulation zones) for identification of signals. Customisable moving average lengths and threshold values are supported, which allow adaptation to various strategies.
CONSIDERATIONS:
Validation: It's recommended that careful backtesting over historical data be done before acting on any identified opportunities.
User Discretion: Trading decisions should not rely solely on this script. Users should exercise their judgment and consider market conditions.
Note: This script identifies opportunities based on historical data and should be used with caution, as past performance is not indicative of future results.
CryptoSignalScanner - Pi Cycle - Golden Ratio MultiplierDESCRIPTION:
All credits are going to Philip Swift who has written an article on Medium about the PI Cycle Top and The Golden Ratio Multiplier .
Based on the article this indicator has been created to display and indicate the Bitcoin PI Cycle Top which has historically been effective in picking out the market cycle highs within 3 days. It also displays the Golden Ratio Multiplier which explores Bitcoin's adoption curve and market cycles.
• The PI Cycle Top is based on the 350DMA (Daily Moving Average) multiplied by 2 and the 111DMA (Daily Moving Average)
• The Golden Ratio Multiplier is based on the 350DMA (Daily Moving Average) the The Golden Ratio which is defines as 350DMA * 1.61803398875 and the Fibonacci Sequence which is defined as 350DMA * 2, 350DMA * 3, 350DMA * 5, 350DMA * 8, 350DMA * 13 and 350DMA * 21
HOW TO USE:
• The PI Cycle Top is picking the market cycle tops within 3 days.
When the 350DMA x2 crosses below the 111DMA Bitcoin price peaks in its market cycle. This indicates that the market is overbought and it is time to take profit.
• The Golden Ratio Multiplier pics the top on every market cycle in Bitcoin’s history and forecasts when Bitcoin will top in the coming market cycle.
In 2011 the top was at 350DMA * 21
In 2013 the top was at 350DMA * 13
In 2014 the top was at 350DMA * 8
In 2018 the top was at 350DMA * 5
If we look at the results above the forecast for next top should be at 350DMA * 3
FEATURES:
• You can change the Long Moving Average which is by default 350
• You can change the Short Moving Average which is by default 111
• You can show/hide the Pi Cycle Top labels
• You can show/hide the Pi Cycle Bottom labels
• You can show/hide the Pi Cycle Moving Averages
• You can show/hide the Golden Ratio
• You can show/hide the Fibonacci Sequence
• You can set an alert when the Pi Cycle Top is reached
REMARKS:
• This advice is NOT financial advice.
• We do not provide personal investment advice and we are not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
• All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.
• We will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
• We only provide this information to help you make a better decision.
• While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
HOW TO GET ACCESS TO THE SCRIPT:
• Access to this script is free of charge
• You can drop me a message to get access to the script
Good Luck,
SEOCO
GoldmanTrenderMessage @voke2249 for access
Used in combination with other indicators to identify entry opportunities
