United Kingdom Real Private GDP per CapitaThis is the first in a set of indicators I will be publishing.
Quite simply, my aim is to demystify GDP.
Lots of what is discussed in economic circles revolves around nominal GDP and evaluations of GDP that are skewed by government spending, inflation and often, sheer population.
In the same way that a country with lots of people might have a big GDP (even if the people are very poor and unproductive!), then the same can be said of government spending. After all, a country can have a very large GDP simply by juicing the economy up with government spending.
Yet, population and government spending by themselves are not indicators of productivity, innovation, or economic wealth.
Similarly, GDP is often juiced up by inflation and of course, a country with big inflation might have big GDP, but inflation can hardly be said to make anyone or any country wealthy.
So, my indicator for REAL PRIVATE GDP PER CAPITA aims to show GDP in a more honest light by adjustiing it for inflation, government spending, and population.
I hope it proves illuminating.
Economy
Market Health MonitorThe Market Health Monitor is a comprehensive tool designed to assess and visualize the economic health of a market, providing traders with vital insights into both current and future market conditions. This script integrates a range of critical economic indicators, including unemployment rates, inflation, Federal Reserve funds rates, consumer confidence, and housing market indices, to form a robust understanding of the overall economic landscape.
Drawing on a variety of data sources, the Market Health Monitor employs moving averages over periods of 3, 12, 36, and 120 months, corresponding to quarterly, annual, three-year, and ten-year economic cycles. This selection of timeframes is specifically chosen to capture the nuances of economic movements across different phases, providing a balanced view that is sensitive to both immediate changes and long-term trends.
Key Features:
Economic Indicators Integration: The script synthesizes crucial economic data such as unemployment rates, inflation levels, and housing market trends, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market health.
Adaptability to Market Conditions: The inclusion of both short-term and long-term moving averages allows the Market Health Monitor to adapt to varying market conditions, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Oscillator Thresholds for Recession and Growth: The script sets specific thresholds that, when crossed, indicate either potential economic downturns (recessions) or periods of growth (expansions), allowing traders to anticipate and react to changing market conditions proactively.
Color-Coded Visualization: The Market Health Monitor employs a color-coding system for ease of interpretation:
-- A red background signals unhealthy economic conditions, cautioning traders about potential risks.
-- A bright red background indicates a confirmed recession, as declared by the NBER, signaling a critical time for traders to reassess risk exposure.
-- A green background suggests a healthy market with expected economic expansion, pointing towards growth-oriented opportunities.
Comprehensive Market Analysis: By combining various economic indicators, the script offers a holistic view of the market, enabling traders to make well-informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of the economic environment.
Key Criteria and Parameters:
Economic Indicators:
Labor Market: The unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health.
High or rising unemployment indicates reduced consumer spending and economic stress.
Inflation: Key for understanding monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.
Persistent high inflation can lead to economic instability, while deflation can signal weak
demand.
Monetary Policy: Reflected by the Federal Reserve funds rate.
Changes in the rate can influence economic activity, borrowing costs, and investor
sentiment.
Consumer Confidence: A predictor of consumer spending and economic activity.
Reflects the public’s perception of the economy
Housing Market: The housing market often leads the economy into recession and recovery.
Weakness here can signal broader economic problems.
Market Data:
Stock Market Indices: Reflect overall investor sentiment and economic
expectations. No gains in a stock market could potentially indicate that economy is
slowing down.
Credit Conditions: Indicated by the tightness of bank lending, signaling risk
perception.
Commodity Insight:
Crude Oil Prices: A proxy for global economic activity.
Indicator Timeframe:
A default monthly timeframe is chosen to align with the release frequency of many economic indicators, offering a balanced view between timely data and avoiding too much noise from short-term fluctuations. Surely, it can be chosen by trader / analyst.
The Market Health Monitor is more than just a trading tool—it's a comprehensive economic guide. It's designed for traders who value an in-depth understanding of the economic climate. By offering insights into both current conditions and future trends, it encourages traders to navigate the markets with confidence, whether through turbulent times or in periods of growth. This tool doesn't just help you follow the market—it helps you understand it.
Treasury Yields Heatmap [By MUQWISHI]▋ INTRODUCTION :
The “Treasury Yields Heatmap” generates a dynamic heat map table, showing treasury yield bond values corresponding with dates. In the last column, it presents the status of the yield curve, discerning whether it’s in a normal, flat, or inverted configuration, which determined by using Pearson's linear regression coefficient. This tool is built to offer traders essential insights for effectively tracking bond values and monitoring yield curve status, featuring the flexibility to input a starting period, timeframe, and select from a range of major countries' bond data.
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▋ OVERVIEW:
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▋ YIELD CURVE:
It is determined through Pearson's linear regression coefficient and considered…
R ≥ 0.7 → Normal
0.7 > R ≥ 0.35 → Slight Normal
0.35 > R > -0.35 → Flat
-0.35 ≥ R > -0.7 → Slight Inverted
-0.7 ≥ R → Inverted
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▋ INDICATOR SETTINGS:
#Section One: Table Setting
#Section Two: Technical Setting
(1) Country: Select country’s treasury yields data
(2) Timeframe: Time interval.
(3) Fetch By:
(3A) Date: Retrieve data by beginning of date.
(3B) Period: Retrieve data by specifying the number of time series back.
Enjoy. Please let me know if you have any questions.
Thank you.
BTC / DXY, BTC / US10Y
The combination of the DXY and US02Y can be used to gauge market sentiment and assess the state of the global economy.
When the DXY is rising, it indicates that the U.S. dollar is strengthening relative to other currencies, which can lead to increased risk aversion among investors as the U.S. dollar is often seen as a safe-haven currency.
When the US02Y is rising, it suggests that market expectations for future inflation and interest rate increases are increasing, which can lead to a decrease in the value of riskier assets such as stocks.
In general, the combination of the DXY and US02Y can provide important information on the direction of global market trends and the state of the economy, and as such, they are important indicators to consider when making investment decisions.
GDP BreakdownProvides an easy way for viewing the sub sections that make up a country's total GDP. Not all countries provide data for each subsector (Agriculture, Construction, Manufacturing, Mining, Public Administration, Services, Utilities). Only countries that provide complete data are able to be selected in the settings. If I've missed any please let me know in the comment section so they can be added. This is much easier than having to individually selecting each ticker for each country when looking to compare how diversified an economy is.
Yield Curve (1-10yr)Yield curve of the 1-10 year US Treasury Bonds, with over 60 years of history.
The Yield Curve is the interest rate on the 10 year bond minus the 1 year bond.
When it inverts (crosses under 0) a recession usually follows 6-12 months later.
It's a great leading indicator to identify risk in the macroeconomic environment.
Yield curves can be constructed on varying durations. Using a 1-year as the short-term bond provides a slightly faster response than the 2-year bond; and the 1-year has more historical data on TradingView.
10-Year Bond Yields (Interest Rate Differential)With this little script, I have attempted to incorporate fundamental data (in this case, 10-year bond yields) into technical analysis . When pairing two currencies, the one with a higher bond interest rate usually appreciates when the interest rate differential widens, or, to use a simple example: in a currency pair A vs. B, with A showing a higher bond yield than B, a widening interest rate gap is likely to help A and create a buying opportunity (shown as a blue square at the bottom of the chart), while the opposite is true when the gap tightens (sell signal, red square).
While long-term investors know about and make use of the importance of bond yield fluctuations, most short-term traders tend to dismiss the idea of using fundamental data, mostly for lack of quantifiability and limited impact in an intraday environment. After extensive backtesting on daily and intraday charts (6-12 hours), however, I realized this indicator still managed to produce useful results (less useful than on monthly and yearly charts, to be fair, but still useful enough), especially when paired with simple price-driven indicators, such as Heikin Ashi or linear regression .
My personal (and thus subjective) thoughts: worth a try. Buy and sell signals frequently contradicted both more popular indicators and my gut feeling and managed to take out losing trades that I had considered trades with a high winning probability. In other words, when the market lures traders into seemingly promising trading decisions, this indicator might give you an early warning, especially when you manage to adjust period and continuity parameters to your trading strategy.
Currency pairs used in this script are all possible combinations of the eight majors. Each security has been assigned a name ("inst01" to "inst08" in the code) and a broker; if you make changes to the code, be sure not to mess with currency and broker names as this would render the entire script useless. Good luck trading, and feel free to suggest improvements!
US RecessionsThere are a couple of other Pine Scripts on TradingView that others have kindly contributed but they are presently out-dated because they shade recessions based on manual entries of time. Thanks to the availability of pulling data from QUANDL, we can pull official data from FRED on data like US Recessions.
The FRED series data is taken from is here- fred.stlouisfed.org
"Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series."
This series tracks back to 1854, but good luck finding much of any data on TradingView that goes that far back :)
Total Inflation ModelMeasure of the total economy wide inflation of the US Dollar.
Total Inflation = growth rate of money supply / economic output
Yield Curve Inversion MonitorIdentifies when the US Treasury Yield Curve inverts (2 and 10 year bond rates).
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
Xiaolai(Sean)Chen_Credit Creation DegreeM2/M1 money stock value is the reflection of the degree of credit created which was mentioned by Ray Dalio in his 30 min video "How the Market and Economic Machines Work"
Credit degree will finally decrease in the Long-Term Debt circle.
