ETF 3-Day Reversion StrategyIntroduction: This strategy is a modification of the “3-day Mean Reversion Strategy” from the book "High Probability ETF Trading" by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. In the book, the authors discuss a high-probability ETF mean reversion strategy for a 1-day time-frame with these simple rules:
The price must be above the 200 day SMA and below the 5 day SMA.
The low of today must be lower than the low of yesterday (must be true for 3 consecutive days)
The high of today must be lower than the high of yesterday (must be true for 3 consecutive days)
If the 3 rules above are true, then buy on the close of the current day.
Exit when the closing price crosses above the 5 day SMA.
In practice and in backtesting, I’ve found that the strategy consistently works better when using an EMA for the trend-line instead of an SMA. So, this script uses an EMA for the trend-line. I’ve also made the length of the exit EMA adjustable.
How it works:
The Strategy will buy when the buy conditions above are true. The strategy will sell when the closing price crosses over the Exit Moving Average
Plots:
Green line = Exit Moving Average (Default 5 Day EMA)
Blue line = 5 Day EMA (Used as Entry Criteria)
Disclaimer: Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
Mean
[cache_that_pass] 1m 15m Function - Weighted Standard DeviationTradingview Community,
As I progress through my journey, I have come to the realization that it is time to give back. This script isn't a life changer, but it has the building blocks for a motivated individual to optimize the parameters and have a production script ready to go.
Credit for the indicator is due to @rumpypumpydumpy
I adapted this indicator to a strategy for crypto markets. 15 minute time frame has worked best for me.
It is a standard deviation script that has 3 important user configured parameters. These 3 things are what the end user should tweak for optimum returns. They are....
1) Lookback Length - I have had luck with it set to 20, but any value from 1-1000 it will accept.
2) stopPer - Stop Loss percentage of each trade
3) takePer - Take Profit percentage of each trade
2 and 3 above are where you will see significant changes in returns by altering them and trying different percentages. An experienced pinescript programmer can take this and build on it even more. If you do, I ask that you please share the script with the community in an open-source fashion.
It also already accounts for the commission percentage of 0.075% that Binance.US uses for people who pay fees with BNB.
How it works...
It calculates a weighted standard deviation of the price for the lookback period set (so 20 candles is default). It recalculates each time a new candle is printed. It trades when price lows crossunder the bottom of that deviation channel, and sells when price highs crossover the top of that deviation channel. It works best in mid to long term sideways channels / Wyckoff accumulation periods.
Jaws Mean Reversion [Strategy]This very simple strategy is an implementation of PJ Sutherlands' Jaws Mean reversion algorithm. It simply buys when a small moving average period (e.g. 2) is below
a longer moving average period (e.g. 5) by a certain percentage and closes when the small period average crosses over the longer moving average.
If you are going to use this, you may wish to apply this to a range of investment assets using a screener for setups, as the amount signals are low. Alternatively, you may wish to tweak the settings to provide more signals.
Context can be found here:
LINK
Mean Reversion w/ Bollinger BandsThis is a more advanced version of my original mean reversion script.
It employs the famous Bollinger Bands.
This robot will buy when price falls below the lower Bollinger Band, and sell when price moves above the upper Bollinger Band.
I've only tested it on the S&P 500, though you could try it out on other assets to see the backtest performance.
During the recent COVID-19 bear market drop, it produced several buy signals on the S&P which I followed, and made some nice gains so far.
I still think this would make a better investing strategy (buy undervalued / sell over-valued), rather than a trading strategy.
I use this robot for my long term portfolio.
YJ Mean ReversionMean reversion strategy, based upon the price deviation (%) from a chosen moving average (bars). Do note that the "gains" are always relative to your starting capital, so if you set a smaller starting capital (e.g. $10000) your gains will look bigger. Also when the strategy tester has finished calculating, check the "Open P/L", as there could still be open trades.
Some Tips:
- Was designed firstly to work on an index like the S&P 500 , which over time tends to go up in value.
- Avoid trading too frequently (e.g. Daily, Weekly), to avoid getting eaten by fees.
- If you change the underlying asset, or time frame, tweaking the moving average may be necessary.
- Can work with a starting capital of just $1000, optimise the settings as necessary.
- Accepts floating point values for the amount of units to purchase (e.g. Bitcoin ).
- If price of units exceeds available capital, script will cancel the buy.
- Adjusted the input parameters to be more intuitive.
MCI and VCI - Modified CCI FormulasFor private peeps only
- Takes a modified version of the CCI formula into 2 parts
VCI - Volume Channel Index (Yellow Histogram)
- Measures accurate accumulation and distribution levels and times
MCI - Modified Channel Index
- Measures (when compared to VCI) levels where clearly buys are interested vs not interested.
Example:
If VCI > MCI
- Shows buyer's are more than interested in buying, you've either hit a bottom or heavy resistance
if MCI > VCI
- Show's buyer's aren't interested and will most likely result in a dump/lower price
Great for monitoring accumulation and distribution, these auto buy and sells look for the transition points over 0, works on EVERY commodity/stock/FOREX/Crypto
Results are from trading 1 BTC x25 leveraging. Not all trades will get in if put in at limit, but it does survive with profits after the massive 0.075 fee (results shown are after fees)
Moving Average Mean Reversion StrategyA basic mean-reversion strategy. Shorts when the close is 10% above the MA, and goes long when it's 10% below the MA.
