panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric OscillatorThis is the Bitcoin Risk Metric. Inspired by many power law analysts, this script assigns a risk value to the price of Bitcoin. The model uses regression of 'fair value' data to assign risk values and residual analysis to account for diminishing returns as time goes on. This indicator is for long-term investors looking to maximise their returns by highlighting periods of under and overvaluation for Bitcoin.
This is a companion script for panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric . Use this indicator in tandem to achieve the view shown in the chart above.
Please note, this indicator will only work on BTCUSD charts but will work on any timeframe.
DISCLAIMER: The product on offer presents a novel way to view the price history of Bitcoin. It should not be relied upon solely to inform financial decisions. What you do with the information is entirely up to you. Please thoroughly consider your decisions and consult many different sources to make sure you're making the most well-informed decision.
### How to Interpret
The risk scale goes from 0 to 100,
Blue - 0 being low risk, and
Red - 100 being high risk.
Low risk values represent periods of historical undervaluation, while high values represent overvaluation. These periods are marked by a colourscale from blue to red.
### Use Cases and Best Practice
A dynamic DCA strategy would work best with this indicator, whereby an amount of capital is deployed/retired on a regular basis. This amount deployed grows or shrinks depending on the proximity of the risk level to the extremes (0 and 100).
Let's say you have a maximum of $500 to deploy per month.
When risk is between 0 and 10, you could deploy the full $500.
When risk is between 10 and 20, you could deploy $400.
When risk is between 20 and 30, you could deploy $300.
When risk is between 30 and 40, you could deploy $200.
When risk is between 40 and 50, you could deploy $100.
Conversely, when risk is above 50, you could:
Sell 1/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 50 and 60.
Sell 2/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 60 and 70.
Sell 3/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 70 and 80.
Sell 4/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 80 and 90.
Sell 5/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 90 and 100.
This framework allows the user to accumulate during periods of undervaluation and derisk during periods of overvaluation, capturing returns in the process.
In contrast, simply setting limit orders at 0 and 100 would yield the absolute maximum returns, however there is no guarantee price will reach these levels (see 2018 where the bear market bottomed out at 20 risk, or 2021 where price topped out at 97 risk).
### Caveats
"All models are wrong, some are useful"
No model is perfect. No model can predict exactly what price will do as there are too many factors at play that determine the outcome. We use models as a guide to make better-informed decisions, as opposed to shooting in the dark. This model is not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a tool to help inform decisions should you consider investing. This model serves to highlight price extremities, which could present opportune times to invest.
### Conclusion
This indicator aims to highlight periods of extreme values for Bitcoin, which may provide an edge in the market for long-term investors.
Thank you for your interest in this indicator. If you have any questions, recommendations or feedback, please leave a comment or drop me a message on TV or twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible with this project, so please seek clarification if you are unsure about anything.
Metric
panpanXBT BTC Risk MetricThis is the Bitcoin Risk Metric. Inspired by many power law analysts, this script assigns a risk value to the price of Bitcoin. The model uses regression of 'fair value' data to assign risk values and residual analysis to account for diminishing returns as time goes on. This indicator is for long-term investors looking to maximise their returns by highlighting periods of under and overvaluation for Bitcoin.
This is a companion script for panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric Oscillator . Use this indicator in tandem to achieve the view shown in the chart above.
Please note, this indicator will only work on BTCUSD charts but will work on any timeframe.
DISCLAIMER: The product on offer presents a novel way to view the price history of Bitcoin. It should not be relied upon solely to inform financial decisions. What you do with the information is entirely up to you. Please thoroughly consider your decisions and consult many different sources to make sure you're making the most well-informed decision.
### How to Interpret
The risk scale goes from 0 to 100,
Blue - 0 being low risk, and
Red - 100 being high risk.
Low risk values represent periods of historical undervaluation, while high values represent overvaluation. These periods are marked by a colourscale from blue to red.
### Use Cases and Best Practice
A dynamic DCA strategy would work best with this indicator, whereby an amount of capital is deployed/retired on a regular basis. This amount deployed grows or shrinks depending on the proximity of the risk level to the extremes (0 and 100).
Let's say you have a maximum of $500 to deploy per month.
When risk is between 0 and 10, you could deploy the full $500.
When risk is between 10 and 20, you could deploy $400.
When risk is between 20 and 30, you could deploy $300.
When risk is between 30 and 40, you could deploy $200.
When risk is between 40 and 50, you could deploy $100.
Conversely, when risk is above 50, you could:
Sell 1/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 50 and 60.
Sell 2/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 60 and 70.
Sell 3/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 70 and 80.
Sell 4/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 80 and 90.
Sell 5/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 90 and 100.
This framework allows the user to accumulate during periods of undervaluation and derisk during periods of overvaluation, capturing returns in the process.
In contrast, simply setting limit orders at 0 and 100 would yield the absolute maximum returns, however there is no guarantee price will reach these levels (see 2018 where the bear market bottomed out at 20 risk, or 2021 where price topped out at 97 risk).
### Caveats
"All models are wrong, some are useful"
No model is perfect. No model can predict exactly what price will do as there are too many factors at play that determine the outcome. We use models as a guide to make better-informed decisions, as opposed to shooting in the dark. This model is not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a tool to help inform decisions should you consider investing. This model serves to highlight price extremities, which could present opportune times to invest.
### Conclusion
This indicator aims to highlight periods of extreme values for Bitcoin, which may provide an edge in the market for long-term investors.
Thank you for your interest in this indicator. If you have any questions, recommendations or feedback, please leave a comment or drop me a message on TV or twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible with this project, so please seek clarification if you are unsure about anything.
Channel CorridorOVERVIEW
The Channel Corridor indicator is designed to operate on a log chart of asset prices (e.g., BTCUSD), specifically on a weekly timeframe.
The intent of the indicator is to provide a visual representation of market dynamics, focusing on a dynamically adjusted corridor around a Simple Moving Average (SMA) of an asset's price. The corridor adapts to changing market conditions. The indicator includes channels within the corridor for additional reference points.
PURPOSE
Trend Identification: The channel corridor can aid in visualising the overall trend, as it dynamically adjusts the corridor based on an SMA and user-defined parameters.
Volatility Assessment: The width of the channel corridor can may act as a gauge of market volatility.
Reversal Points: The channel corridor may signal potential trend reversals or corrections when an asset price approaches the upper or lower bounds of the corridor.
Long-Term Trend Analysis: The channel corridor may aid in longer-term trend analysis.
CONSIDERATIONS
Validation: It's recommended that careful back-testing over historical data be done before acting on any identified opportunities.
User Discretion: Trading decisions should not rely solely on this script. Users should exercise judgment and consider market conditions.
CREDIT
Ideation: Thanks @Sw1ngTr4der for the idea and corridor seed code
Market MonitorThe script can be used to send a JSON message to the webhook once per time. For example, to store market conditions in an external database. The latter is make sense for smaller timeframes due to TradingView limitations on the number of available bars. The interval between messages can be set in the settings. To set up transmitted market metrics, you will probably need to modify the script code to add metrics that are important to you.
Risk Metrics: Crypto VersionRisk Metrics for Crypto.
Market can be set to BTCUSD, BTCEUR, BTCCHF, BTCGBP, BTC1!, BTC2!, SPX, and DTB3
Beta
Correlation
Standard Deviation
Variance
R-squared
Quansium Allocation RatioThis tool finds the most optimal allocation size for each trading setup. It has 3 modes.
Basic (it meets the minimum profitability requirements):
% Profitable: the probability of winning and is calculated by dividing the number of winning trades by the total number of trades.
Profit Ratio: a measure of the ability to generate profit instead of loss and is calculated by taking the average profit from all winning trades divided by the average losses on all losing trades.
Medium (it takes into account the maximum loss to stabilize the overall risk among the partitions):
Max Drawdown: the "worst-case scenario" for a trading period. It measures the greatest distance, or loss, from a previous equity peak.
Advanced (loss is not the only risk taken, the reward to risk ratio must also be accounted for):
Monthly Profit: the amount of average return a system provides on a monthly basis.
Monthly Loss: the highest loss given during the period of a month. It can be substituted by the Max Drawdown.
Notes :
The "check boxes" inputs are there as cosmetic separators.
"Basic" mode comes with preset values. To activate other modes, you must use a value higher than "0".
This shows the amount of percentage you should allocate for the setup you inserted the metrics for.
It is recommended to get values for each mode and find out on past data which works best for you.
Trader Set - Volume MetricThe last tool in my methodology set, another one of those tools that has unique unpublished formulas, this one purely for following volume and reading smart money's hand, YES it's possible. This indicator has few Alerts built in that you can use, will update the rest of the scripts for additional alerts. You can easily set the alert to play a sound that is not disturbing in long run and check mark open ending and have easy time being alerted when some crossings are happening.
Please, don't ask for access, only my students from my classes will have access to this indicator. The English version of the website and learning material is under development and the moment they get ready I will announce it under each related script.
