Supply Weighted Moving Average: OnchinUse this Onchain Channel in Weekly Timeframe - on BTCUSD BUTSTAMP Chart:
This Moving average channel is weighted based on BTC's new Supply:
I believe the slope of the Bitcoin trend line is correlated to the new supply and the issue of Halving.
The chart below shows this:
In fact, after each Halving, the supply is halved. Halving the supply increases the demand-for-supply ratio and increases the price. But the uptrend slope also halves after each halving.
Therefore, the slope of the bitcoin trend is correlated with the new supply rate. This is the logic of this new metric.
Accordingly, the moving average is weighted based on the new supply. This new channel can identify where bitcoin is too cheap or too expensive in the historical chart. It has also marked support/resistance Supply Weighted Moving Average.
Onchaintechnischeanalys
BTC New Supply: OnchainThis Onchain Metric shows the sum of newly issued coins.
This metric is very useful for finding new bull run cycles in the market. The new bull run is accompanied by a significant drop in the new supply.
BTC Supply weighted channel: OnchainUse this oscillator in the weekly time frame and then draw the above linear channel
The premise of this idea is that the trend slope of the bitcoin price correlates with the bitcoin supply chart, which shows the total amount of bitcoin ever created/issued.
Therefore, Bitcoin price is weighted based on Bitcoin supply.
As a result, the above channel has been created, which is a linear channel, and it seems that it can be an oscillator to determine the bitcoin trend, as well as the tops and bottoms of the market.
Bitcoin seems to respect the bottom and top lines of this channel as well as its midline
BTC Leading SOPR: OnchainUse This indicator in Weekly Timeframe:
This Onchain Metric is based on SOPR Moving Average.
This metric is very efficient for finding the tops and bottoms of the market as well as the ascending or descending biases in the market.
You can use it alongside RSI to filter out incorrect rsi signals
overhigh areas signal a top, overlow areas signal a low, zero line cross-up indicates an uptrend bias and its cross-down indicates a downtrend bias in the market
BTC SOPR Momentum: OnchainThis Onchin metric is based on SOPR data
Use this metric on daily and weekly timeframes:
SOPR:
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. Renato Shirakashi created this metric. When SOPR > 1, it means that the owners of the spent outputs are in profit at the time of the transaction; otherwise, they are at a loss. You can find "SOPR" in tradingview indicators
BTC SOPR Momentum: Onchain
This metric is based on SOPR Momentum. I made some changes to it so that its momentum can be checked.
Interpretation:
If the indicator is above the gray level of resistance/support, bitcoin has an uptrend and Bullish bias
If the indicator is below the resistance/ support level, bitcoin has a downtrend and Bearish Bias
Crossup the gray level is a long signal
Cross-down the gray level is a shorts signal
Entering and exit of the indicator to the overhigh area means creating a top
Entering and leaving the indicator to the overflow area means creating a bottom
V/T Ratio: Onchain BTC MetricThis is a New Onchain metric that is designed for bitcoin by myself Mjshahsavar (Ghoddusifar), and it is published for the first time in this trading view in this post.
I think this metric has a very high capability to determine the ATH and bottom of the market. This metric can solve a problem that channels are unable to solve. this could be the equivalent of what is known in the stock market as P/E
Calculations:
V/T RATIO = MA (7) of Log ((THE TOTAL VOLUME OF BITCOIN TRANSFERRED ONCHAIN IN USD)/(THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS))
INTERPRETATION:
What is the long-term price channel of Bitcoin? Have you ever thought that maybe drawing a price channel is not right and maybe we should look for something else?
Channel drawing for the price is a subjective and interpretive subject. Look at the charts below, they are all correct in terms of drawing, but no one can say which one will happen. There is no certainty because drawing them is objective.
But who can say which one will definitely work?
We need something more objective. I think V/T Ratio does that.
Just draw the channel. There is only one channel for it. And it has worked historically well to this day.
Compare the drawn channel with the price chart. It works right. When the metric reaches the top line of the channel, it indicates the new ATH and the end of the cycle.
When it reaches the bottom line of the channel, it indicates that the price has reached the bottom.
A Market Cycle:
According to this metric, the bitcoin cycle has 5 stages:
1- Bottom Price: which V/T Ratio touches the bottom line of the channel: In this case, we expect the price to reach the bottom.
2- Semi-high price: that the metric reaches the middle line of the channel: In this case, Bitcoin creates a local top in the MID-Term and Long-Term timeframes
3- Semi-low price: which has a metric return to the lower part of the channel (but the price can still increase)
4- ATH: that Bitcoin reaches its highest historical price
5- It starts after the ATH until the metric reaches the bottom part of the channel again.
NVT Ratio: OnchainNVT Ratio
Defined as the ratio of market capitalization divided by transacted volume (in USD).
Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT Ratio) is defined as the ratio of market capitalization divided by transacted volume in the specified window.
History
NVT first made an appearance as a tweet on Woo Bull account in Feb 2017. In that tweet he promised an explanatory article which came much later in Oct 2017, first debuting on Forbes.
In Feb 2018, Dimitry Kalichkin published his work to improve NVT for use as a more responsive indicator, hence Kalichkin NVT Signal. In the same month, Woo Bull applied some trader techniques to NVT Signal and published an article summarising how to use it within a trading environment.
Interpretation:
NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) is similar to the PE Ratio used in equity markets.
this indicator measures whether the blockchain network is overvalued or not.
When Bitcoin`s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble.
High: Overvalued Network worth - Bearish
Marketcap is too much valued compared to the low ability to transact coins in terms of volume
Low : Undervalued Network worth - Bullish
Marketcap is undervalued compared to the high ability to transact coins in terms of volume
BTC Active1Y holders: OnchainUse this Indicator in The Weekly timeframe
This indicator is based on "Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago".
This is so important indicator that shows " The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year."
It can show the situation of the holders who have been holding their coins for more than a year. When this indicator starts to decline, it means that the price has risen so much that the holders are selling their coins. When this indicator starts to increase, it means that the number of coins held has been increasing for more than a year. This is because the price is too low for investors.
This indicator can be used to indicate accumulation and distribution areas. When the indicator enters the overlow area (red) it means that the distribution is happening
When the indicator enters the overhigh range (blue), it means that accumulation is taking place by the holders
BTC HASHRATE DROP: OnchainWhy is the drop of hashrate important?
Drop of hashrate usually occurs because some miners in the mining network stop for working. There are several possible reasons for this. Such as new anti-mining regulations in some countries or a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin, which makes mining no longer affordable for some miners. So they turn off their devices
This reduces the supply of bitcoin in the market and according to the law of supply and demand can eventually lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin.
This oscillator is designed to detect hashrate drop. for this, we use the data of glassnode . Maroon color indicates decrease in hashrate and Red color indicates excessive hash rate drop. As can be seen on the chart, usually after this drop, we see an increase in the price of bitcoin
BTC NVM Ratio - Onchain AnalysisIt is an onchain oscillator and is designed to operate at weekly timeframes and is only for Bitcoin.
Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM Ratio) is defined as the ratio of the log of market capitalization divided by the log of the square of daily active addresses in the specified window.
This oscillator evaluates bitcoin price according to the Metcalfe Ratio to shows whether the current value of Bitcoin is higher or lower than the real price
I made this comparison using a moving average of 100. The areas that are red in the weekly timeframe indicate that bitcoin is Overvalued. and The areas that are blue in the weekly timeframe indicate that bitcoin is undervalued.
BTC Composite Man V.1Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths).
After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. The rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation.
But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory.
Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand stock price movements. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.)
he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he sells his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is.
Having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends
Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man)
Some buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers).
To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts:
1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange.
Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers)
2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange.
Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers)
3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy ( Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market)
The Composite Man indicator is created by dividing the Receiving Addresses of bitcoin by the Sending Addresses. After dividing these addresses, the moving average of Alma was calculated for them and compared with the moving average of 100 days.
Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded:
- If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side.
- If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side.
Accordingly, if the swing line is above the 100-day moving average line, it indicates that stronger addresses are being sold and retailers are buying, and vice versa.
