Bitcoin Puell Multiple (BPM)The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a key indicator for evaluating buying and selling opportunities based on the profitability of Bitcoin miners.
The Idea
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a ratio that measures the daily profitability of Bitcoin miners in relation to the historical annual average of this profitability. It is calculated by dividing the amount of newly issued Bitcoins (in USD) each day by the 365-day moving average of that same amount. This indicator provides valuable information on Bitcoin's market cycles, helping investors to identify periods when Bitcoin is potentially undervalued or overvalued.
How to Use
To use the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, investors watch for extreme levels of the indicator. A high Puell Multiple suggests that miners are making exceptionally high profits compared to the previous year, which could indicate an overvaluation of Bitcoin and a selling opportunity (red zones). Conversely, a low Puell Multiple indicates that miners' earnings are low relative to history, suggesting an undervaluation of Bitcoin and a potential buying opportunity (green zones). The trigger thresholds for these zones can be configured in the tool's parameters.
What makes this tool different from the other "Puell Multiple" scripts available is that it is up to date in terms of its data sources, with a more precise calculation, and allows you to view the entire history.
Zone trigger limits and their visualization, as well as colors, are all configurable via the tool parameters.
Here, for example, is a configuration with more sensitive trigger levels and a different color:
Puellmultiple
Trend Tracer IndexThis is the first iteration of an effort to make multiple well-known analytical tools collaborate to help give an objective consensus to the current market conditions.
This indicator ONLY works on a 1 Day Bitcoin Chart!
It contains the following indicators:
Puell Multiple (ours: )
Hash ribbons (by capriole_charles: )
Weekly moving average
Logaritmic growth curve (by quantadelic: )
Stock to flow model (ours: )
Each indicator can be viewed one at a time as either an overlay or oscillator version of itself. Make sure to read the tooltip (the little "i") on how to switch between them since you need to manually move it between the oscillator pane and the chart pane.
A global index was added which will take the average of all these indicators to show the final consensus.
You can assign weights to each indicator, this will affect the Global index. They can be viewed as a 0 to 1 or a 0 to 100 scale, it should work the same.
For example if you don't want the stock to flow index as part of your equation leave that at 0, maybe you want the weekly moving average at half it's weight you can put it at 0.5. This way the global index average will primarily be decided by the other 3 indicators, and slightly be affected by the weekly moving average.
There is a table that contains all the index values of each indicator for a quick overview.
Finally, alerts have been added for each indicator and the global index.
I will maintain this indicator with updates and perhaps even add more analytical tools based on any suggestions.
B1rd's Puell MultipleThis metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - bitcoin miners and their revenue.
It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective. Bitcoin miners are sometimes referred to as compulsory sellers due to their need to cover fixed costs of mining hardware in a market where price is extremely volatile. The revenue they generate can therefore influence price over time.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.
So far, buying below 0.5 and taking profit above 4.0 has been proven profitable over the years.
This version allows you to expiriment with different moving average types.
I might update this version in the future with more expirimental tools of measurements, I just need some idea's to work with. So feel free to comment on what you'd like to see added to this version.
[Maco] PUELL MULTIPLEReverse formulated what the closed source version is and releasing open source publicly to give back to the community.
If you have any questions feel free to join our Discord!
🔗Blockchain Fundamentals - PUELL MULTIPLE! by Cryptorhythms🔗Blockchain Fundamentals - PUELL MULTIPLE! by Cryptorhythms
Intro
The PUELL MULTIPLE! is a way to gauge market cycles from a mining profitability / compulsory sellers' perspective. It takes total miner revenue and adjusts by its yearly moving average. Calculation = mining revenue / 365-day simple moving average of mining revenue.
(The indicator is written that way in all caps at the request of its Creator David Puell)
Still over half a dozen blockchain based indicators to come (follow me and dont miss them!)
IS THE BOTTOM IN ?
The PUELL MULTIPLE! seems to suggest it is. With an insanely accurate call history this is a long term bitcoin maximalists dream indicator. You're welcome!
Extras
As usual we took care of you with some selectable options for the MA type and length so you can experiment.
Want more information?
For a better write up that I could do, check out this thread here: medium.com
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