Normal Distribution Asymmetry & Volatility ZonesNormal Distribution Asymmetry & Volatility Zones Indicator provides insights into the skewness of a price distribution and identifies potential volatility zones in the market. The indicator calculates the skewness coefficient, indicating the asymmetry of the price distribution, and combines it with a measure of volatility to define buy and sell zones.
The key features of this indicator include :
Skewness Calculation : It calculates the skewness coefficient, a statistical measure that reveals whether the price distribution is skewed to the left (negative skewness) or right (positive skewness).
Volatility Zones : Based on the skewness and a user-defined volatility threshold, the indicator identifies buy and sell zones where potential price movements may occur. Buy zones are marked when skewness is negative and prices are below a volatility threshold. Sell zones are marked when skewness is positive and prices are above the threshold.
Signal Source Selection : Traders can select the source of price data for analysis, allowing flexibility in their trading strategy.
Customizable Parameters : Users can adjust the length of the distribution, the volatility threshold, and other parameters to tailor the indicator to their specific trading preferences and market conditions.
Visual Signals : Buy and sell zones are visually displayed on the chart, making it easy to identify potential trade opportunities.
Background Color : The indicator changes the background color of the chart to highlight significant zones, providing a clear visual cue for traders.
By combining skewness analysis and volatility thresholds, this indicator offers traders a unique perspective on potential market movements, helping them make informed trading decisions. Please note that trading involves risks, and this indicator should be used in conjunction with other analysis and risk management techniques.
Skewness
Rolling QuartilesThis script will continuously draw a boxplot to represent quartiles associated with data points in the current rolling window.
Description :
A quartile is a statistical term that refers to the division of a dataset based on percentiles.
Q1 : Quartile 1 - 25th percentile
Q2 : Quartile 2 - 50th percentile, as known as the median
Q3 : Quartile 3 - 75th percentile
Other points to note:
Q0: the minimum
Q4: the maximum
Other properties :
- Q1 to Q3: a range is known as the interquartile range ( IQR ). It describes where 50% of data approximately lie.
- Line segments connecting IQR to min and max (Q0→Q1, and Q3→Q4) are known as whiskers . Data lying outside the whiskers are considered as outliers. However, such extreme values will not be found in a rolling window because whenever new datapoints are introduced to the dataset, the oldest values will get dropped out, leaving Q0 and Q4 to always point to the observable min and max values.
Applications :
This script has a feature that allows moving percentiles (moving values of Q1, Q2, and Q3) to be shown. This can be applied for trading in ways such as:
- Q2: as alternative to a SMA that uses the same lookback period. We know that the Mean (SMA) is highly sensitive to extreme values. On the other hand, Median (Q2) is less affected by skewness. Putting it together, if the SMA is significantly lower than Q2, then price is regarded as negatively skewed; prices of a few candles are likely exceptionally lower. Vice versa when price is positively skewed.
- Q1 and Q3: as lower and upper bands. As mentioned above, the IQR covers approximately 50% of data within the rolling window. If price is normally distributed, then Q1 and Q3 bands will overlap a bollinger band configured with +/- 0.67x standard deviations (modifying default: 2) above and below the mean.
- The boxplot, combined with TradingView's builtin bar replay feature, makes a great tool for studies purposes. This helps visualization of price at a chosen instance of time. Speaking of which, it can also be used in conjunction with a fixed volume profile to compare and contrast the effects (in terms of price range) with and without consideration of weights by volume.
Parameters :
- Lookback: The size of the rolling window.
- Offset: Location of boxplot, right hand side relative to recent bar.
- Source data: Data points for observation, default is closing price
- Other options such as color, and whether to show/hide various lines.
Expected Range and SkewThis is an open source and updated version of my previous "Confidence Interval" script. This script provides you with the expected range over a given time period in the future and the skew of that range. For example, if you wanted to know the expected 1 standard deviation range of MSFT over the next 20 days, this will tell you that. Additionally, this script will also tell you the skew of the expected range.
How to use this script:
1) Enter the length, this will determine the number of data points used in the calculation of the expected range.
2) Enter the amount of time you want projected forward in minutes, hours, and days.
3) Input standard deviation of the expected range.
4) Pick the type of data you want shown from the dropdown menu. Your choices are either the expected range or the skew of the expected range.
5) Enter the x and y coordinates of the label (optional). This is useful so it doesn't impede your view of the plot.
Here are a few notes about this script:
First, the expected range line gives you the width of said range (upper bound - lower bound), and the label will tell you specifically what the upper and lower bounds of the expected range are.
Second, this script will work on any of the default timeframes, but you need to be careful with how far out you try to project the expected range depending on the timeframe you're using. For example, if you're using the 1min timeframe, it probably won't do you any good trying to project the expected range over the next 20 days; or if you're using the daily timeframe it doesn't make sense to try to project the expected range for the next 5 hours. You can tell if the time horizon you're trying to project doesn't work well with the chart timeframe you're using if the current price is outside of either the upper or lower bounds provided in the label. If the current price is within the upper and lower bounds provided in the label, then the time horizon that you're projecting over is reasonable for the chart timeframe you're using.
Third, this script does not countdown automatically, so the time provided in the label will stay the same. For example, in the picture above, the expected range of Dow Futures over the next 23 days from January 12th, 2021 is calculated. But when tomorrow comes it won't count down to 22 days, instead it will show the range over the next 23 days from January 13th, 2021. So if you want the time horizon to change as time goes on you will have to update this yourself manually.
Lastly, if you try to set an alert on this script, you will get a warning about it possibly repainting. This is because of the label, not the plot itself. The label constantly updates itself, which triggers the warning. I tested setting alerts on this script both with and without the inclusion of the label, and without the label the repainting warning did not occur. So remember, if you set an alert on this script you will get a warning about it possibly repainting, but this is because of the label constantly updating, not the plot itself.
Risk RangeThis indicator creates risk ranges using implied volatility (VIX) or historical volatility, skewness ( Cboe SKEW or estimate ) and kurtosis.
Volatility / Kurtosis / Skewness / CorrelationCalculations for Historical Volatility, Kurtosis, Skewness and Historical Correlation between two assets.
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Rolling Skew (Returns) - Beasley SavageSkewness is a term in statistics used to describe asymmetry from the normal distribution in a set of statistical data. Skewness can come in the form of negative skewness or positive skewness, depending on whether data points are skewed to the left and negative, or to the right and positive of the data average. A dataset that shows this characteristic differs from a normal bell curve.