Price & Volume Breakout Fibonacci Probability [TradeDots]📝 OVERVIEW
The "Price & Volume Breakout Fibonacci Probability" indicator is designed to detect the probability of the maximum run-up and drawdown of each breakout trade on an asset, assisting traders in optimizing their take profit and stop loss strategies.
🧮 CALCULATIONS
The algorithm detects price and volume breakouts to activate the Fibonacci levels displayed on the chart. It calculates these levels using the period pivot high and low, with the close price of the breakout bar as the reference price.
The indicator then forward-tests within an user-selected number of bars, detecting the maximum run-up and drawdown during that period. Consequently, it calculates the probability of the price hitting either side of the Fibonacci levels, showing the likelihood of reaching take profit and stop loss targets for each breakout trade.
📊 EXAMPLE
The above example shows two breakout trades, circled within the yellow rectangle zone.
The first trade has a maximum run-up above the +0.382 Fibonacci level zone and a maximum drawdown below the -0.618 Fibonacci level zone.
When the price reaches the maximum run-up, it only has a ~45% probability of moving further upward into the last two zones (25% + 19.44%). This indicates that setting a take profit at a higher level may have less than a 50% chance of success.
Conversely, when the price reaches its maximum drawdown, there is only an ~8% probability of moving further downward into the last drawdown zone. This could indicate a potential reversal.
⚙️ SETTINGS
Breakout Condition: Determines the type of breakout condition to track: "Price", "Volume", "Price & Volume".
Backtest Period: The maximum run-up and drawdown are detected within this bar period.
Price Breakout Period: Specifies the number of bars the price needs to break out from.
Volume Breakout Period: Specifies the number of bars the volume needs to break out from.
Trendline Confirmation: Confirms that the close price needs to be above the trendline.
📈 HOW TO USE
By understanding the probabilities of price movements to both the upside and downside, traders can set take profit and stop loss targets with greater accuracy.
For instance, placing a stop loss order below the zone with the highest probability minimizes the chances of being stopped out of a profitable trade. Conversely, setting a take profit target at the zone with the highest probability increases the win rate.
Additionally, if the price breaches multiple Fibonacci levels during the breakout period, it may indicate an abnormal state, signaling a potential reversal or pullback. This can help traders exit trades in a timely manner.
Traders can adjust their take profit and stop loss levels based on their individual risk tolerance.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Tradedots
Buffett Valuation Indicator [TradeDots]The Buffett Valuation Indicator (also known as the Buffett Index or Buffett Ratio) measures the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.
This indicator helps determine whether the valuation changes in US stocks are justified by the GDP level.
For example, the ratio is calculated based on the standard deviations from the historical trend line. If the value exceeds +2 standard deviations, it suggests that the stock market is overvalued relative to GDP, and vice versa.
This "Buffett Valuation Indicator" is an enhanced version of the original indicator. It applies a Bollinger Band over the Valuation/GDP ratio to identify overvaluation and undervaluation across different timeframes, making it efficient for use in smaller timeframes, e.g. daily or even hourly intervals.
HOW DOES IT WORK
The Buffett Valuation Indicator measures the ratio between US stock valuation and US GDP, evaluating whether stock valuations are overvalued or undervalued in GDP terms.
In this version, the total valuation of the US stock market is represented by considering the top 10 market capitalization stocks.
Users can customize this list to include other stocks for a more balanced valuation ratio. Alternatively, users may use S&P 500 ETFs, such as SPY or VOO, as inputs.
The ratio is plotted as a line chart in a separate panel below the main chart. A Bollinger Band with a default 100-period and multiples of 1 and 2 is used to identify overvaluation and undervaluation.
For instance, if the ratio line moves above the +2 standard deviation line, it indicates that stocks are overvalued, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
APPLICATION
When the indicator is applied to a chart, we observe the ratio line's movements relative to the standard deviation lines. The further the line deviates from the standard deviation lines, the more extreme the overvaluation or undervaluation.
We look for buying opportunities when the Buffett Index moves below the first and second standard deviation lines and sell opportunities when it moves above these lines. This indicator is used as a microeconomic confirmation tool, in combination with other indicators, to achieve higher win-rate setups.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Tic Tac Toe Game [TradeDots]Feeling bored with trading?
Time to inject some fun into your decision-making process with our Tic Tac Toe Indicator!
The Tic Tac Toe game transforms your chart into a competitive playground where trading pairs face off in a classic game of Tic Tac Toe.
HOW TO PLAY
Our Tic Tac Toe game invites you to pit one trading pair against another directly on your chart. Choose the competitors and watch as they battle it out in a traditional grid setup.
Navigate to settings and select your competitor pair.
Choose who kicks off the game.
After the close of each new bar, the algorithm will utilize the closing prices of both symbols. These numbers feed into a random number generator which alternates the turns for placing marks on the grid.
The game progresses until one pair aligns three consecutive symbols and wins, or the board fills up. After that, the game resets every three bars, offering continual engagement during active market hours.
MANUAL PLAYING MODE
Currently, due to PineScript's limitations, a fully interactive manual mode is not supported, as all previous data will be lost with each new user input, preventing the replication of existing game states.
However, users can input a sequence at the start, guiding the placement of symbols throughout the game.
Stay tuned for future updates!
Multi Timeframe Trend Screener [TradeDots]The "Multi Timeframe Trend Screener" is a trading indicator designed to assist traders in identifying the market trends of multiple assets within a single panel. This tool is invaluable for detecting shifts in trends, enabling traders to easily adjust their strategies under different market conditions.
HOW DOES IT WORK
Upon initialization, the indicator requires users to input two key pieces of information:
The assets to be monitored.
The timeframes to be analyzed.
The tool is capable of simultaneously tracking up to four assets across five distinct timeframes.
By specifying the type and length of the moving average, the indicator uses this data as a baseline to determine the current market trend.
A price movement below the moving average triggers a downward trend symbol (📉), indicating bearish conditions.
Conversely, a movement above the moving average displays an upward trend symbol (📈), signaling bullish conditions.
The aggregation of moving averages across various timeframes provides a comprehensive view of the overall market sentiment.
APPLICATION
In scenarios where the market consistently demonstrates an upward trend, each timeframe will display a bullish symbol. Shifts in market sentiment typically start in the shorter timeframes and can progressively affect longer ones if the trend continues.
This cascading effect allows the indicator to show all timeframes transitioning to a bearish orientation when the trend reverses.
The indicator also facilitates comparison between different assets. For assets with high correlation, a trend shift in one can often predict similar movements in correlated assets, thus allowing traders to swiftly adapt their strategies to align with new market conditions.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Sector Rotation Hedging With Volatility Index [TradeDots]The "Sector Rotation Hedging Strategy With Volatility Index" is a comprehensive trading indicator developed to optimally leverage the S&P500 volatility index. It is designed to switch between distinct ETF sectors, strategically hedging to moderate risk exposure during harsh market volatility.
HOW DOES IT WORK
The core of this indicator is grounded on the S&P500 volatility index (VIX) close price and its 60-day moving average. This serves to determine whether the prevailing market volatility is above or below the quarterly average.
In periods of elevated market volatility, risk exposure escalates significantly. Traders retaining stocks in sectors with disproportionately high volatility face increased vulnerability to negative returns. To tackle this, our indicator employs a two-pronged approach utilizing two sequential candlestick close prices to confirm if volatility surpasses the average value.
Upon confirming above-average volatility, a hedging table is deployed to spotlight ETFs with low volatility, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), to derisk the overall portfolio.
Conversely, in low-volatility conditions, sectors yielding higher returns like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) are preferred. The hedging table is utilized to earmark high-return sector ETFs.
Thus, during highly volatile market periods, the strategy recommends enhancing portfolio allocation to low-volatility ETFs. During low-volatility windows, the portfolio is calibrated towards high-volatility ETFs for heightened returns.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
In real trading, additional considerations encompassing trading commissions, management fees, and ancillary rotation costs should be factored in. False signals may arise, potentially leading to losses from these fees.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility [TradeDots]The "Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility" is a trading indicator that estimates future price ranges based on the volatility of price movements within a user-defined rolling window.
HOW DOES IT WORK
This indicator utilizes 3 types of user-provided data to conduct its calculations: the length of the rolling window, the number of bars projecting into the future, and a maximum of three sets of standard deviations.
Firstly, the rolling window. The algorithm amasses close prices from the number of bars determined by the value in the rolling window, aggregating them into an array. It then calculates their standard deviations in order to forecast the prospective minimum and maximum price values.
Subsequently, a loop is initiated running into the number of bars into the future, as dictated by the second parameter, to calculate the maximum price change in both the positive and negative direction.
The third parameter introduces a series of standard deviation values into the forecasting model, enabling users to dictate the volatility or confidence level of the results. A larger standard deviation correlates with a wider predicted range, thereby enhancing the probability factor.
APPLICATION
The purpose of the indicator is to provide traders with an understanding of the potential future movement of the price, demarcating maximum and minimum expected outcomes. For instance, if an asset demonstrates a substantial spike beyond the forecasted range, there's a significantly high probability of that price being rejected and reversed.
However, this indicator should not be the sole basis for your trading decisions. The range merely reflects the volatility within the rolling window and may overlook significant historical price movements. As with any trading strategies, synergize this with other indicators for a more comprehensive and reliable analysis.
Note: In instances where the number of predicted bars is exceedingly high, the lines may become scattered, presumably due to inherent limitations on the TradingView platform. Consequently, when applying three SD in your indicator, it is advised to limit the predicted bars to fewer than 80.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Bullish Candlestick Patterns With Filters [TradeDots]The "Bullish Candlestick Patterns With Filters" is a trading indicator that identifies 6 core bullish candlestick patterns. This is further enhanced by applying channel indicator as filters, designed to further increase the accuracy of the recognized patterns.
6 CANDLESTICK PATTERNS
Hammer
Inverted Hammer
Bullish Engulfing
The Piercing Line
The Morning Star
The 3 White Soldiers
SIGNAL FILTERING
The indicator incorporates with 2 primary methodologies aimed at filtering out lower accuracy signals.
Firstly, it comes with a "Lowest period" parameter that examines whether the trough of the bullish candlestick configuration signifies the lowest point within a specified retrospective bar length. The longer the period, the higher the probability that the price will rebound.
Secondly, the channel indicators, the Keltner Channels or Bollinger Bands. This indicator examines whether the lowest point of the bullish candlestick pattern breaches the lower band, indicating an oversold signal. Users have the flexibility to modify the length and band multiplier, enabling them to custom-tune signal sensitivity.
Without Filtering:
With Filtering
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
