US Recession IndicatorThe US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics meet certain criteria, the chart's background becomes shaded, signifying a strong likelihood that the economy is in a recession. Furthermore, a built-in alert system keeps users updated without constant monitoring.
The first metric is the Smoothed Recession Probabilities developed by Marcelle Chauvet. It is based on a dynamic-factor markov-switching model that assesses four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. It offers a mathematical analysis of how recessions deviate from expansions. In essence, this index mirrors the probability of the prevailing true economic situation being a recession, grounded on the current GDP data.
The second metric is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. It operates on the principle that changes in the unemployment rate can be used to identify the onset of a recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point from the preceding year, it flags a potential recession.
For this combined indicator, the thresholds are intentionally set lower than when each metric is used individually. Both metrics must simultaneously suggest a potential recession in order to send a signal. This stems from the realisation that neither metric is infallible and has, on occasion, sent false signals in the past. By requiring both to align, the likelihood of a false positive is reduced. However, it's crucial to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, leaving the door open for potential false alerts which may not be confirmed by the NBER.
Unemployment
Global Unemployment RateThe Global Unemployment rate estimates what is the rate of unemployment of the whole world, taking same data from multiple countries and normalizing them.
It includes the Eurozone + 19 countries from all the continents, which are some of the richest countries as well as some of the most populous.
It sadly does not include India as its unemployment data on trading view as of today (Feb 2023) is only since year 2019, which is too short
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison.
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (by Alex L.)Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (idea by Claudia Sahm) based on US national unemployment rate.
I added an enhanced feature (optional) that uses slight variation in Sahm's idea and is usable to detect oversold stocks/crypto.
Enjoy!
