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[[flash crash]]gm, i’m reaching out today to give you a fair warning based on a concerning cross-market chart structure. the dxy is showing strong signs of strength and looks like it’s gearing up for an upside squeeze, potentially setting the stage for a breakout to levels we haven’t seen in decades. the implications of this move could trigger a flash crash in both the stock and crypto markets world-wide, reminiscent to that of the covid crash. this time, however, i believe the catalyst will be the combination of elevated rates, inflation, and the looming debt ceiling crisis. don’t fear the crash,,, it will present a rare buying opportunity for those who are in tune with this wilder market. a strategic player, one who profits from the collapse of this fragile economy, will thrive in these conditions. --- if my forecast is correct, we’ll see the TVC:DXY explode up to 127,,, while CRYPTOCAP:BTC would lose roughly half of its current value. 🌙
TVC:DXY
by notoriousbids
2
Increase in U.S. Unemployment ClaimsThe recent data on initial unemployment claims in the United States introduces a note of caution amid an economic outlook that, until recently, appeared robust. Contrary to the narrative of U.S. economic exceptionalism that dominated the first half of January, initial unemployment claims have risen for the second consecutive week, with continuing claims reaching their highest level since November 2021. This increase raises questions about the relative strength of the labor market presented by the December NFP report and its potential impact on the country’s economic trajectory. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial claims increased by 6,000, reaching 223,000 for the week ending January 18, slightly exceeding market expectations of 220,000. Beyond the weekly figure, the standout data point is the rise in continuing claims, which climbed to 1,899,000, marking the highest level in over two years. This increase suggests that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new job opportunities, an indicator warranting close monitoring. This rise in continuing claims is a figure that deserves attention. Prolonged periods of unemployment could negatively affect consumer spending and confidence. While this data tempers the optimism generated by the strong December NFP report, it’s crucial to place it within a global context. The U.S. economy, compared to other developed economies, still shows a relatively strong performance. However, this uptick in unemployment claims dampens the narrative of economic exceptionalism. In the realm of monetary policy, these data points are unlikely to significantly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its upcoming meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Similarly, market expectations for 2025 rate cuts remain centered on the second half of the year, with a forecast of a single 25 basis point cut. The U.S. dollar experienced slight additional downward pressure following the release of this data, adding to the pressures from signs of easing inflation and the absence of targeted tariff measures at the start of the Trump 2.0 administration. The DXY index registered a slight decline of 0.05%. Market attention will now turn to next week’s FOMC meeting and, in particular, to Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks. Additionally, uncertainty persists over the potential implementation of punitive tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, a measure that could have significant implications for trade and the economy. While it is premature to suggest a trend reversal, this data serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining constant vigilance over labor market developments and their broader economic impact. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
USDIndex is under pressureThe US dollar index broke out of a 462-day-old wedge pattern in November 2024, targeting 111.93. After triggering the pattern, it retested the breakout and resumed its upward movement. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above 105.08. However, in the short term, traders are watching the 107.22 level, which aligns with the December 20th low. As long as the price holds above this level, the short-term uptrend remains intact, and the index could approach 109 by the end of next week. However, a break below 107.22 could push the price down to 106.35, or even 106. What’s your view on the dollar index? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:USDINDEXLong
by ThinkMarkets
DXY Faces Selling Pressure Despite Ongoing Bullish TrendDXY Faces Selling Pressure Despite Ongoing Bullish Trend The DXY Index continues to experience slight selling pressure, even though the bullish trend remains intact. The US Dollar (USD) saw a modest rebound following reports that President Trump is considering a 10% tariff on China as a response to fentanyl shipments, effective February 1. Trump stated, "We're discussing a 10% tariff on China due to their fentanyl exports to Mexico and Canada." Tariff threats and their eventual implementation are likely to impact market sentiment, giving the USD a potential boost. However, any delays in tariff announcements will provide temporary relief for risk assets and might prompt unwinding of long USD positions. Technical Analysis: In our previous analysis, we observed that the DXY Index broke out of its channel and hit one of the targets. Given the uncertainty surrounding tariff decisions, DXY is hesitant to take a definitive direction before February 1. Post that date, clarity on the USD's outlook may emerge, potentially leading to a new bearish correction. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by KlejdiCuni
3
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.90 1st Support: 107.12 1st Resistance: 108.93 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal Jan23 Price is delivering to a Premium on the Daily, and a discount on the previous daily range its trading in. That said the previous session range is a Premium. Mondays candle took a 3 weeks of sell stop liquidity in one day creating equal lows to be taken yesterday clearing out liquidity from late Dec. Yesterday's candle also then created a wall of equal lows. Price on the HFT did in fact reach the .70 level and bounced off to seek lower prices. Ideally I would like to see Price seek higher prices and rebalance the 15M FVG and take out the clean equal highs for todays price action.
TVC:DXYLong
by LeanLena
DXY Long term Bullish biasWhy the Dollar Index is Likely to Rise in the Near Term: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised for potential gains in the near term, driven by a combination of factors: Strong U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic reports show resilient U.S. growth, with solid GDP numbers and strong labor market data supporting the dollar’s upward trajectory. Fed's Hawkish Stance: The Federal Reserve remains committed to combating inflation, keeping interest rates elevated and signaling further tightening if necessary. Higher rates generally make the dollar more attractive to investors. Global Risk-Off Sentiment: Increasing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty often push investors toward the U.S. dollar as a safe haven asset. This trend tends to drive up demand for USD during times of global instability. Euro Weakness: As the Eurozone faces its own economic challenges, including inflation concerns and weaker growth prospects, the Euro may remain under pressure, providing additional support to the dollar. Given these factors, the dollar appears well-positioned to strengthen in the short term, likely driving the DXY higher.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by ChampionsFx
Why Tariffs & Why Now?Trump's tariffs aim to reshape international trade. They target imports from China, Mexico, and Canada starting February 1. The president sees tariffs as both a policy tool and a growing revenue stream. By imposing fees on foreign goods, he hopes to protect U.S. industries and encourage fair trade practices. U.S. manufacturers face an uneven playing field when compared to foreign counterparts like those in Mexico and China, due to differences in regulations and quality controls. For instance, China doesn’t have strict regulations like OSHA, which ensures worker safety and environmental standards in the U.S. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers often don't face the same level of quality control scrutiny that domestic manufacturing companies do. These disparities make it difficult to directly compare commodities, as U.S. manufacturers shoulder higher costs to comply with regulations, while foreign manufacturers benefit from fewer restrictions. As a result, domestic manufacturers and distributors struggle to compete on price, which is one of the reasons tariffs are viewed as protecting national strategic interest. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a CNBC interview today from Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place said, “I would put in perspective: If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it.” Citation: www.cnn.com Tariffs are not new to Trump’s strategy. The trade war with China in 2018 established a framework for using tariffs to gain leverage. This latest round builds on that approach, with broader goals for economic influence. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The reasoning ties to China’s fentanyl production and export practices. This decision follows conversations with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump urged stricter measures against fentanyl production and shipping, linking it to broader trade concerns. American businesses already face up to 25% tariffs on many Chinese imports. These new fees would add further strain to supply chains, raising prices for consumers. However, it will promote domestic manufacturing and bulster this important sector of the economy. Mexico and Canada are also in Trump’s sights. He plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from these neighboring countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed concerns saying that Canada supplies vital materials like oil, steel, and lumber. He went on to claim that the U.S. Tariffs could disrupt this trade and raise costs for American industries. Both nations aim to avoid direct trade conflict while protecting their economies from potential damage. Trump’s tariffs serve multiple purposes. They are designed to pressure trade partners, reduce deficits, and address what he views as unfair practices. Tariffs also play a role in domestic revenue generation. They are a tax on imported goods, and higher tariffs mean more money for government programs. Economists warn of potential downsides, including higher consumer prices. Some argue that the inflationary effects could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Let's explore that further now. What does the data say concerning Tariffs? The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Compiled through surveys of supply chain executives, it tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As a barometer of economic activity, the PMI provides valuable insight into broader economic trends and business conditions. Since the second half of 2022, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Factors such as high interest rates, which increase borrowing costs for businesses, and weaker global demand have weighed heavily on production. Tariffs, while aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing, could potentially exacerbate these challenges by raising input costs, further pressuring profit margins. Critics argue that higher tariffs could contribute to inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and support broader economic growth. A strong dollar has also added to manufacturers' woes, echoing the environment during Trump's 2017 inauguration. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, reducing competitiveness for domestic manufacturers. In 2017, the dollar weakened after initial strength leading into the Trump inaguration, providing a temporary boost to manufacturing by making exports more affordable and imports pricier. A similar trend today could aid the sector, but its timing and magnitude remain uncertain, leaving manufacturers navigating a complex and challenging economic environment. A strong dollar is closely tied to domestic interest rates, as higher rates make U.S. financial assets more attractive to global investors. With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, or Fed Funds Rate, at elevated levels, there is a strong incentive for multinational corporations and foreign investors to acquire dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries. These assets offer a combination of safety and competitive yields, drawing capital inflows that drive up demand for the dollar. For instance, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.295%, significantly higher than China’s 2-year yield of 1.26%. This wide yield differential makes U.S. Treasuries a far more appealing investment, strengthening the dollar in the process. The Fed’s success in controlling inflation has further bolstered the dollar's appeal. As inflation trends downward toward the 2% target, the relative stability of the U.S. economy enhances confidence in dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: high interest rates attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. While this helps curb inflation, it poses challenges for domestic manufacturing by eroding competitiveness. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy while considering its ripple effects on trade and the broader economy. One bright spot for domestic manufacturing is that it appears to have hit rock bottom after years of sharp declines. Similar to the transportation sector, which shows signs of recovery as reflected in the recent ATA tonnage index, manufacturing seems to be stabilizing. The worst may be over, and the sector is finally showing signs of life. New orders for manufacturing have moved back into growth mode, offering hope for a sustained rebound. This shift signals that demand is returning, which could provide a foundation for manufacturers to rebuild and capitalize on future opportunities.
TVC:DXY
by ZenMode
TRUMP Trade - US Dollar short - ? Hello everyone! There is a high probability that the dollar rally has come to an end. It appears that the impulse, which could have formed wave ((C)) within a flat correction, has possibly completed. This flat correction, in turn, may be wave b of a presumed zigzag. If this is the case, there is a high likelihood of the dollar declining to the level of 95.50, with a strong resistance level at 98.80. We are observing a bearish divergence between the price and indicators, which suggests a possible trend reversal or at least a correction. Fundamentally, there don’t seem to be any clear reasons for the dollar to weaken, but… price comes first.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by AUREA_RATIO
11
US Dollar Bearish Trend: Key Insights Analyzed**Is the US Dollar Heading for a Bearish Turn? Key Insights to Watch** The US dollar has been a hot topic lately, and for good reason. With Donald Trump back in office and the motto being *AMERICA FIRST*, the currency’s trajectory is under scrutiny. As many of you know, the Trump administration has historically favored a weaker US dollar and lower interest rates. The rationale? A weaker dollar can boost exports, while lower rates are seen as a way to stimulate economic growth. This approach was a hallmark of Trump’s first term, and it looks like we might see a repeat. Another key factor to consider is Trump’s focus on increasing crude oil and natural gas production. Higher energy output could lead to lower energy prices, which would further support economic growth. However, this could also weigh on the dollar, as lower energy prices often correlate with a weaker currency. Looking back to 2016–2017, when Trump first took office, the US dollar initially surged but then reversed sharply in January 2017, marking the start of a prolonged bearish trend. Fast forward to today, and we’re seeing similar patterns emerge. The wedge formation on the Dollar Index suggests limited upside potential, and a break below key support levels—specifically 108 and 107.58—could confirm that a bearish trend is underway. If those levels fail to hold, the next area to watch would be the 107 to 106 demand zones. This scenario aligns with what we’ve been discussing over the past few weeks. If the Dollar Index breaks below these critical levels, it could signal the completion of the wedge pattern and the beginning of a new bearish phase for the US dollar. What does this mean for traders and investors? Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index and watch for those key support levels. A break below them could present significant opportunities, but it’s also a reminder to stay cautious and informed. What are your thoughts on the US dollar’s trajectory? Do you think history will repeat itself, or are there other factors at play? Let’s discuss in the comments! #USD #Forex #Trading #Economy #Trump #DollarIndex #Investing #Markets
TVC:DXYShort
by forex_forge
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CAPITALCOM:DXY
by David_Perk
17
DXY in 4H timeframehello dear traders U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the potential for a correction over the next month: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: If the Federal Reserve signals a slowdown or pause in its rate hikes, it could put downward pressure on the DXY. Upcoming speeches or FOMC minutes will be key indicators to watch. U.S. Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected economic data, such as lower GDP growth, higher unemployment rates, or declining inflation, could suggest a less aggressive Fed policy, leading to a potential correction in the dollar. Global Economic Trends and Risk Sentiment: Increased risk appetite in global markets could drive investors toward riskier assets (like equities or emerging market currencies), reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical and International Developments: Any easing of geopolitical tensions or positive trade agreements between major economies could diminish the dollar’s safe-haven appeal and contribute to a potential correction. Correlated Markets like Gold and Oil: Rising prices in gold or oil often correlate with a weaker dollar. If these assets strengthen, it could be a sign of dollar weakness. In summary, weaker U.S. data or dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a more favorable global economic environment, could increase the likelihood of a DXY correction over the next month.
TVC:DXYShort
by mehdi_kb