NASDAQ 100 in Focus: Navigating the Next Big Move
Good morning, everyone, and happy weekend!
Today, we’re conducting a comprehensive top-down analysis of the US100 to prepare you for the upcoming trading week. Let’s break down the key observations and actionable insights across the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes.
Weekly Chart Analysis
• Trend Structure: The US100 remains in a strong uptrend, evident from the upward-sloping EMAs and the green price channel established since October 30, 2023. While a tighter channel has been broken, the broader channel remains intact, signaling sustained bullish momentum.
• Volume Profile: The weekly POC and HVN are clustered near 14,500, significantly below current prices. This indicates strong historical interest at lower levels, serving as key support if prices retrace.
• Bollinger Bands: Price resides in the upper band, signifying strength. The retracement initiated on December 16 bounced off the 20 SMA with weak rejections, further reinforcing bullish momentum.
• Fibonacci Levels: The current retracement has respected the 0.382 level, a hallmark of shallow corrections in strong uptrends. The last higher high, formed on December 16, rejected between the 1.0 and 1.618 extension zones.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price remains well above the cloud, which is notably thick, suggesting strong underlying support at the 19,000 level.
• Order Blocks: Significant weekly order blocks lie at 14,300, 17,001, and 18,500. The 18,500 block may provide robust support in case of a pullback.
Daily Chart Analysis
• Trend and Structure: After a breakout from an ascending wedge on December 18, bias temporarily turned bearish. However, recent price action suggests a shift back to bullish sentiment. A strong bounce off the 20,700 daily order block aligns with the 100 EMA, followed by a clean close above the 50 and 20 EMAs. This reaffirms bullish momentum.
• Volume Profile: High volume is concentrated near 21,000, which aligns with the recent consolidation zone. The breakout above this level transforms it into strong support for future pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has entered the upper band cleanly, signaling renewed strength. The 20 SMA serves as dynamic support.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price rejected off the top of the cloud during the latest upswing, confirming bullish momentum.
• EMA Analysis: While the 13 EMA remains below the 48 SMA, a breakout above the latter will solidify bullish bias. This could lead to a retest of the previous trendline near 21,854 before a potential pullback.
• Order Blocks: Daily order blocks at 20,800 and 20,600 will serve as key support zones. A larger block at 20,000–19,800 provides deeper support if volatility increases.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
• Structure: The recent break of a descending parallel channel indicates a bullish reversal. While the lower high structure persists, the strong bounce off the 20,800 level signals underlying strength.
• Volume Profile: The POC at 21,100 coincides with an hourly order block, acting as a significant liquidity zone.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has extended into the upper band, suggesting strength but hinting at a potential consolidation or pullback.
• Ichimoku Cloud: A clean break above the lower cloud reinforces bullish momentum, with support expected at the cloud top if prices retrace.
• Momentum Indicators: The 4-hour RSI at 65 and a strengthening ADX (24.64) confirm bullish momentum, while MACD shows increasing positive momentum.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
• Momentum and Trendline Breaks: RSI at 54.78 and a break of a descending trendline suggest the end of recent bearish consolidation. However, MACD remains below zero, indicating that bullish momentum is still developing.
• Short-Term Targets: The next key resistance is at 21,700, aligned with the 100% Fibonacci extension. A move to this level may precede a pullback to gather liquidity at support zones around 21,100 or 20,800.
Key Observations and Outlook
1. Bias: Bullish, supported by higher timeframes and momentum indicators.
2. Support Levels: 20,800, 20,600, and 20,000.
3. Resistance Levels: 21,700 and 23,435 (weekly channel high).
4. Potential Strategy: Await pullbacks to support levels (e.g., 21,100 or 20,800) for long entries, confirming momentum with indicators like RSI, MACD, and Ichimoku.
Proprietary Indicators
My custom-developed tools, including weekly and daily buy/sell region indicators, have signaled the first green buy region since December 16. This adds confidence to our bullish outlook. For further insights and entries, follow along as I share actionable updates.
Let me know your thoughts, and feel free to drop any questions below. Stay disciplined and trade wisely!
