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ASX SPI 200 Index Futures (Jun 2025)ASX SPI 200 Index Futures (Jun 2025)ASX SPI 200 Index Futures (Jun 2025)

ASX SPI 200 Index Futures (Jun 2025)

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APM2025 trade ideas

Momentum Turns Against the ASXThe rally of the past two week on the ASX took a turn for the worse on Wednesday, on the warning (and official announcement) of Trump's 25% tariff on non-US cars. This has seen the ASX get caught in the negative sentiment on Wall Street. The daily chart shows that momentum has turned lower around a resistance cluster, including the December low, 38.2% Fibonacci ration and 20-day EMA. The daily RSI (2) reached a highly overbought level on Wednesday and now sits below 50, and the RSIK (14) has remained beneath 50 to show negative momentum overall. A bearish divergence also formed on the 4-hour RSI ahead of the selloff. The bias is for a move down to at least the 7930 area, a break beneath which brings the lows around 7850 into focus. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX 200: Oversold Signals Flash, But Bulls Need ConfirmationASX 200 SPI futures are so oversold on the daily timeframe that you can’t help but notice, especially when looking back over recent years. The only time an RSI reading this low didn’t spark some form of bounce was during the height of the pandemic panic in early 2020. But being oversold alone isn’t enough to trade against the prevailing strong bearish trend, putting extra emphasis on Wednesday’s price action. To get bullish and position for a countertrend squeeze, we need a price signal for confirmation. I’m watching 7796—the price dipped below this level in low-volume trade during the night session before reversing back above. It’s only a minor level, but beneath it there’s not much for bulls to hang their hat on until 7600, where buyers stepped in last year. Depending on the price action around the open at 9:45 am AEDT, if bulls defend 7796 again, the risk of a squeeze increases, similar to what we saw on Tuesday. Longs could be considered above the level with a stop beneath the session low for protection. 7900 is one potential target, with 7996 and former uptrend support around 30 points higher alternative options for those seeking greater risk-reward. A clean break and close below 7796 would invalidate the squeeze setup. Unless accompanied by fundamentally bearish news, flipping short after recent declines would be risky. Potentially working in bulls’ favour, iron ore futures in Singapore had a solid session overnight, lifting nearly 1% to $101.70 per tonne. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) stablising around 8200The ASX 200 futures market has fallen close to 5% from its all-time high, with 5 of the 7 candles since the top being bearish. However, the daily RSI (2) reached oversold on Friday, a bullish pinbar formed on Monday and a small bullish divergence is now forming on the daily and 1-hour chart. The pinbar low also found support at a weekly VPOC (volume point of control) and weekly S1 pivot. Given the selloff came in a relatively straight line, I cannot help but suspect at least a minor bounce is due. The near-term bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week’s low, and bulls could seek dips towards 8200 / 8191 VPOC area. 8300 and the weekly pivot point at 8345 could make viable upside targets for bulls.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
Sellers in Control as 50DMA Rejection Reinforces Bearish BiasAustralian ASX 200 SPI futures were firmly rejected at the 50-day moving average earlier Friday, reinforcing the message that sellers remain in control following the bearish break of uptrend support flagged earlier this week. With RSI (14) and MACD both firmly bearish, the near-term bias remains to sell rallies and downside breaks. If the price squeezes back toward the 50DMA, it could present a short setup, allowing for positions to be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection. Ideally, another test and failure at the 50DMA would bolster the merits of the trade. Potential targets include 8251, 8135, or the key 200DMA. Alternatively, a clean downside break of 8251 could open the door for shorts beneath that level, again with a stop above. Targets would be the same as the latter two mentioned above. Beyond technicals, there’s been little discussion about how the sharp rally in Chinese equities is impacting markets outside of China. For years, investors wary of direct exposure to China gained access indirectly through other Asian markets, including the ASX. With China now looking far more investable, this shift—beyond earnings season—may help explain the abrupt weakness in Australian equities. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by FOREXcom
ASX 200 SPI Futures Test Key Support as RBA Decision LoomsWith disappointing earnings from major names like Westpac and BHP in recent days, and with more than three rate cuts priced for this year, ASX 200 SPI futures look vulnerable to downside heading into today’s RBA policy decision. They’re now testing major uptrend support—a level that has attracted buyers in recent months. While it’s holding for now, the technical picture is far less convincing for bulls than on previous occasions. Friday’s false break above the former record highs formed a shooting star daily candle, a clear reversal signal. While the price bounced off the uptrend again on Monday, unlike past instances, this one didn’t last with the price quickly gravitating back towards it. RSI (14) has diverged from price, flashing a bearish signal, while MACD is curling up and looks close to confirming with a crossover from above. Everything comes across as heavy. A break of the uptrend would put the 50DMA in focus as an initial target for bears, with further downside levels at 8280, 8135, and the key 200DMA. A stop above the uptrend would help manage reversal risk. If support holds, an alternative approach would be to set longs ahead of it with a stop beneath for protection. Potential upside targets include 8546 and 8581. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by FOREXcom
ASX 200 SPI: Buying Dips Until the Price Action Says OtherwiseAustralian ASX 200 SPI futures remain a buy-on-dips play until the price action suggests otherwise, bouncing again off channel support on Tuesday, repeating the pattern seen numerous times over the past two months. Even though momentum indicators don’t look great, with MACD rolling over while RSI (14) remains in a modest downtrend, it’s hard to turn outright bearish unless the price breaks and closes beneath channel support. Risk-reward doesn’t favour entering longs around these levels—unless you’re aiming for a run beyond the record highs—but moves towards the trendline would generate a decent bullish setup. Longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. 8494—the February 7 high—looms as one potential target. The record highs at 8546 is another. If the price were to break and close beneath channel support, the bullish bias would be invalidated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record highThe ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain why. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX24:AP1!
by CityIndex
3
ASX futures tease bearish with a potential swing highSanta's rally put in a poor performance this year. ASX futures sold off into Christmas before the 200-day SMA and 8000 handle came before the market eked out a weak comeback into the new year. Yet price action on the daily chart suggests we could be approaching a swing high. It appears we're in a third wave higher from 8000, yet momentum lacks the legs of the initial bounce to suggest an ABC correction could be nearing an end. The 50-day SMA has so far capped today's rally and could leave a bearish pinbar should it close the day around current levels. A multi-week bearish divergence has formed on the RSI (14) and the daily RSI (2) is approaching overbought. The bias is to fade into moves towards the 50-day SMA and target the November low. But if appetite for risk truly sours, we could see prices break beneath the 200-day SMA and 8000 level and head for the lower trendline of the rising channel. MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX 200: Is the Santa Rally Finally on the Runway?Did we just see the start of the ‘Santa Rally’ on Australia’s ASX 200? If the daily candle on SPI futures finishes around these levels, the price signal will likely embolden those who have been pining for its arrival. As things stand, we’re looking at a key reversal with the body and range greater than the candle of 24 hours earlier, pointing to the potential for an extended run higher. RSI (14) has broken its downtrend – hinting at a shift in price momentum – although MACD is yet to confirm the signal. While the timing of the futures contract roll emphasises the need for risk management, with just a handful of trading days left until Christmas, this has often been a strong seasonal period Australian stocks. If the price closes above 8310, one setup to consider would be to initiate longs above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting the downtrend established from the record highs. A break of that level may open the door for a larger thrust, possibly towards 8420 or 8480. The price needs to overcome 8353 for the setup to succeed, meaning traders should be on alert for signs of hesitancy from this known reversal level. If the price were to close beneath 8310, the bullish setup would be invalidated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
ASX dragged lower by the DowThe Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely. The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour trend has favoured bearish swing traders, who could seek to fade into moves towards the 20-50 hour EMAs.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX 200 futures look set to bounceThe Nasdaq reached a record high and the S&P 500 is close to reaching its own record high. So while the Dow was lower for a fourth day, 2 out of 3 indices rising could help support the ASX today. It's been over a week since the ASX began retracing from its record high, and with prices now trying to form a base above the monthly pivot point and historical weekly VPOC (volume point of control), I'm now looking for longs. The ASX has opened lower but remains within the overnight range. Assuming prices hold above the spike low, the bias is for a move higher to last week's VAL (value area low) or VPOC.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
ASX 200 futures could tease bears at these highsThe ASX 200 futures market has struggled to retest 8500, after a brief and uninspiring spell above it. Overnight gains on Tuesday were seen on low volumes, and Wall Street indices have provided a weak lead today. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily and 1-hour chart. While prices have rebounded from the weekly pivot point, price action looks corrective. Hence the bias for it being a corrective channel that could break to the downside. If we see prices rise at the open, I am on guard for it being a 'last hurrah", which could make it a suitable market to fade into with a stop above the record high. The weekly pivot (8390), weekly VPOC (8348) and weekly S1 around 8300 make viable downside targets for bears. MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Australian ASX 200 SPI futures look good if you're a bearThe picture for Australian ASX 200 SPI futures look good if you're a bear. We've seen a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday with follow-through selling today, accompanied by an uptick in volumes. Momentum indicators are providing bearish signals, too. But it is month-end and the price does find itself sitting on the 50DMA, a level that has been respected consistently apart from a period between June and July this year. Even though price and momentum signals suggest selling rallies may work better than buying dips in near-term, unless we see a close beneath the 50DMA, going short beforehand comes across as a low probability play given prior interactions with the level. If the price closes and holds beneath the 50DMA, you could sell with a stop either above it or 8200 for protection. On the downside, 8080 is the first level of note, but to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective, 7860 comes across as a more appropriate target. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by FOREXcom
1
ASX 200 flirts with bearish reversal breakoutElection jitters are in the air, and it is weighing on Wall Street sentiment - and dragging the ASX 200 with it, which also faces pressure from a spate of weak China figures in recent weeks. A potential head and shoulders top has formed on the daily chart, and prices are close to testing a support zone which could double up as a neckline. For now, the ASX appears hesitant to break the 8130/50 support zone which brings could prompt a minor bounce over the near term. A break beneath 8130 confirms the bearish reversal, which projects an approximate downside target near 7900 and the 200-day EMA. Also note the 8100 and 8000 levels which could provide support along the way MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX to new highs, or fakeout in the making?The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area). A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record high. Bears could seek a move towards the 20-hour or 50-hour EMA, or bulls could wait for such a level to be respected as support before rejoining the bullish trend. *Take note that AU employment data is released in just over 1hr* MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Make or break day for Australia’s ASX 200For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close. But whether the rebound can extend is questionable; we saw a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday and RSI (14) has diverged from price, signalling another test of the uptrend may prove more fruitful for bears than raids of the past. MACD also looks heavy, suggesting it may soon confirm the signal from RSI. If we see a bearish break, traders could sell with a stop above the trendline targeting an initial pullback to 8137. Below that, the 50DMA and 7918 are the next levels of note. Alternatively, if we see another retest and bounce from the uptrend, consider reversing the setup, buying the bounce with a stop below the level for protection. The obvious target would be the record high of 8334 set in late September. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom
ASX 200 futures enter the “death zone” for bulls ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing. I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, but I am interested in what happens near-term as it may dictate what happens longer-term. We’ll either get another topping pattern, or a bullish raid will finally stick. So, I’m waiting. I’m especially interested in how the price fares around 8080, if it gets there. The market has only been able to push through it once and never closed there. Given the track record and current valuations, I’m more inclined to sell rallies but I want the price signal to do so. If we see another failed attempt around 8080, you could sell with a stop either above the level or the high set in August, depending on your eventual target. On the downside, the 50-day moving average looms as one, with 7871, 7794 and 7721 the next after that. If the price were to break and close above 8121 before extending the move, the bearish bias would be negated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom
1
ASX futures snap 9-day streak, further downside loomsYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback. A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX to open lowerYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback. A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by Matt_Simpson
1