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AUD/USD Mini

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AUDUSD.1.MINI trade ideas

AUD/USD: Bullish Forecast Ahead!As we delve into the AUD/USD pair, my analysis leads me to a confident 'Buy' signal at an entry price of 0.61948. The objective here is to target a Take Profit of 0.62166333, while maintaining a Stop Loss at 0.61722333. What drives this bullish perspective? For starters, the fundamentals behind the Australian dollar remain robust, bolstered by favorable export conditions and a resilient economy. Investors have shown increasing confidence, partially fueled by optimistic data releases and key economic indicators suggesting growth. Moreover, the overall sentiment in the market seems to favor risk-on approaches, pushing AUD higher. On the technical front, the alignment of support levels around the 0.61948 mark indicates a solid foundation where buyers are likely to step in. Notably, the historical performance of the AUD/USD complex demonstrates a win rate of 64.74% for long trades, alongside a profit factor of 1.67. Such metrics, backed by the EASY Trading AI strategy, present a favorable risk-reward scenario. In conclusion, AUD/USD appears primed for upward movement. Should conditions hold, traders could effectively leverage this bullish trend. Remember, always manage risks wisely and consider market volatility while trading.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
Is AUD/USD’s 2-Year Low a Crisis or an Opportunity? 25.01.10Hello, this is Greedy All-Day. Today’s analysis focuses on AUD/USD. Daily Chart Overview Looking at the daily chart, AUD/USD has reached the orange box zone, a critical level where the next direction will likely be decided. Scenario 1: If the support holds, a rebound is expected. Scenario 2: If the support fails, a decline toward the green box zone, or potentially lower, could occur. The strong rebound from the green box in the past was supported by U.S. COVID-related policies. Without such external factors now, a failure of the orange box support could lead to unpredictable further declines, with recovery timelines also uncertain. Weekly Chart Insights On the weekly chart, the orange box level is notable for how rarely it has been tested, historically appearing approximately once every 10 years. In 2022, AUD/USD rebounded from this level. Now, just 2 years later, the price has returned, deviating from the typical cycle. This could signal a potential shift in trend. Key Observations: Historically, 0.617 has served as a strong support, keeping the price above this level. However, there’s now a possibility of entering the blue box zone, just below 0.617. If the price breaks below 0.617, it could take years for a recovery. For example, during the last breakdown into the blue box zone, it took approximately 5 years for AUD/USD to reclaim 0.617. A similar prolonged recovery may occur this time. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? Immediate Recovery: If the price consolidates near the current level, a breakout above the resistance trendline could occur around January 30, signaling a potential short-term uptrend. Complete Recovery: To fully recover, AUD/USD must break and sustain above 0.635. Resistance at 0.635 is expected due to: Past support tests near the blue box zone. The red box breakdown, which triggered a strong bearish candle on December 18, 2024, now serving as resistance. Without breaking these two levels, a sustained recovery is unlikely. What If 0.617 Breaks? If AUD/USD breaks below 0.617, the next major support levels are: 0.6074 0.6006 0.5800 0.5500 Key Recommendation: The only level worth considering for a reversal trade is 0.5500, due to its history of strong rebounds. Attempting reversal trades at other levels poses significant risk. Conclusion The current support at 0.617 is critical: A break below this level could open the door to uncharted lows. It would mark the first time in 4 years that 0.617 is breached. Historically, 0.617 has been tested once every 10 years, but this cycle has shortened to just 2 years, potentially signaling a downward shift in the long-term trend. If the trend breaks downward, avoid counter-trend trades. While lower prices may seem extreme, they remain technically possible given the current trajectory. For a significant recovery, external policy changes will likely play a crucial role. Traders should remain cautious and strategic in navigating this uncertain environment. 🚀
by Greedy_allday
AUD/USD Testing Key Support Amid Persistent DowntrendChart Analysis: The AUD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, reaching critical support levels, while bearish momentum remains dominant. 1️⃣ Key Support Levels: Immediate support at 0.6190, marking the current level of defense for buyers. Further support at 0.6169, the next line of demand if the pair breaks lower. 2️⃣ Downtrend Line: The pair remains constrained by a steep descending trendline, highlighting the sustained bearish pressure. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-week SMA (blue): Trending downward at 0.6574, aligning with the bearish outlook. 200-week SMA (red): Sloping lower near 0.6870, confirming the broader bearish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 30, indicating oversold conditions, but further downside cannot be ruled out. MACD: Deeply negative and declining, reflecting strong bearish momentum. What to Watch: A break below 0.6190 could open the door for further declines toward 0.6169 or lower levels. Any sustained break above the descending trendline would indicate easing bearish pressure and may attract buyers. Monitor RSI for potential bullish divergence as the pair approaches oversold levels. AUD/USD remains under intense bearish pressure, with key support levels being tested. Traders should watch for any breakout or breakdown signals to determine the pair’s next directional move. -MW
by FOREXcom
AUDUSD Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for AUDUSD is below: The market is trading on 0.6199 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 0.6226 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range. According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise. Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million). Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited. Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar • Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies: Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994. • Sustained Strength of the US Dollar: Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak. • Reasons Behind Dollar Strength: 1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets. 2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap. 3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar. • Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength: 1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation. 2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward. • Impacts of Dollar Strength: 1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs. 2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength. Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
Long
by Ali_PSND
AUD/USD Trading Plan Long/Short Swing TradeThe pair has reached a 2 years low (0.6200). There are two scenario's that I will be following. Scenario 1 Long To trigger a long entry there are a few thing I wish to see before I enter go long. 1. Break of the down slopping trend line around 0.6300 level 2. Creation of new HH and HL (New up-slopping trendline) 3. Break of the resistance level at 0.6350 4. re-test of the level or a fundamental catalyst to give the power for a strong break out 5. Cross of the EMA100 For this entry I will target the 0.6550 level and SL bellow the last HL Scenario 2 Short (Following the current down trend) the only additional confirmation I will need for a short entry is the break and re-test of 0.6200 level, also a look on the volume indicators. The level I will target is 0.6000 super old support level(4.5 years) For my Day trade position I will be using the same levels as reference, using more of chart/candle patterns on 1 and 4h hours time frames for 30-40 pips targets. I hope you enjoyed or find useful this information, feedback is always welcome. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
by Don_Bob
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD Analysis - LONG 👆 In this Chart AUDUSD D1 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions. ❤️This Chart is for AUDUSD market analysis. ❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy. This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts. The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in AUDUSD, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management. 🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢 ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Long
by Nii_Billions