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AUDUSD.1.MINI trade ideas

AUDUSDThe head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Michele Bullock, who has been serving as Governor since September 18, 2023. She is the first female Governor of the RBA and plays a crucial role in setting monetary policy for Australia. As Governor, Michele Bullock chairs both the Reserve Bank Board and the Payments System Board, overseeing key decisions on interest rates and financial stability. Her tenure has seen significant economic challenges, including managing inflation pressures while supporting economic growth. The Upcoming AUD/USD Fundamental Data Prints and Their Impact on Trade Directional Bias. Several key economic indicators are set to influence the AUD/USD currency pair in the coming period. These include: 1. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decisions Impact: The RBA is expected to cut interest rates, which could weaken the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar if not already priced into markets. Bias: A rate cut might initially lead to a sell bias for AUD/USD, but if it aligns with market expectations, its impact could be muted. 2. Australian Economic Indicators Inflation Data (CPI): Higher inflation figures can lead to expectations of less aggressive rate cuts by the RBA. Impact: Stronger inflation data might support a buy bias for AUD/USD. Employment Figures: Positive employment data can indicate economic resilience. Impact: This could support a buy bias for AUD/USD. 3. U.S. Economic Indicators Building Permits and Housing Starts: Stronger-than-expected figures can boost USD strength. Impact: This might apply downward pressure on AUD/USD, leading to a sell bias. 4. Global Trade Tensions The ongoing situation with tariffs under Donald Trump's administration may indirectly affect Australia through its trade relations with China. Current Market Sentiment The recent rally in AUD/USD has been supported by a weaker USD and positive technical signals However, overbought conditions suggest potential corrections or reversals if key resistance levels are not breached convincingly Potential Trade Scenarios: Buy Bias:If Australian economic indicators show resilience (e.g., strong CPI or employment data), and global trade tensions ease further reducing risks for Australia’s economy. Technical breaches above key resistance levels like on monthly timeframe , the RSI divergent giving me a break of supply roof ,if we close the month on break of structure and its confirmed as a break of structure scenario ,it might return on retest as demand floor and reject to test the long term descending trendline connecting 2012 to 2024 Sell Bias: If U.S. economic indicators surprise positively (e.g., strong housing starts), supporting USD strength against other currencies including AUD. A confirmed break below demand floor would likely reinforce this scenario.
by Shavyfxhub
AUD/USD - 1H Smart Money Concept Analysis📊 AUD/USD - 1H Smart Money Concept Analysis 🔹 Market Structure: ✅ Break of Structure (BOS): Strong bullish momentum with multiple BOS confirming an uptrend. ✅ Change of Character (ChoCH): Previous bearish attempts failed, indicating a bullish shift. 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ Demand Zones: • 0.63670 - 0.63736 (Potential support & retracement area) • 0.63222 - 0.63301 (Major demand zone if deeper pullback occurs) ✅ Fair Value Gaps (FVG): • Price may revisit 0.63682 (FVG + Fibonacci 0.50 level) before continuation. ✅ Fibonacci Levels: • 0.382: 0.63777 • 0.50: 0.63682 (Key Level) • 0.618: 0.63587 • 0.705 - 0.786: 0.63517 - 0.63452 ✅ Supply Zone: • 0.64422 - 0.64563 (Potential target if bullish continuation holds) 📌 Trade Idea: 🔹 Bullish bias unless price closes below 0.63222. 🔹 Ideal buy entries: 0.63682 (50% Fib retracement + FVG). 🔹 Targets: 0.64422 - 0.64563 supply zone. #FXFOREVER #AUDUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #BOS #FVG #PriceAction
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
AUD/USD Potential Reversal and Uptrend ContinuationObservation: The AUD/USD pair is depicted on a 15-minute chart, showing a recent upward trend followed by a consolidation phase. The price is currently at a critical Fibonacci retracement level around 0.63996, which could act as a potential support. Analysis: The chart features a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicating an intact uptrend. The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing low to swing high show that the price is hovering around the 0.786 retracement level at approximately 0.63959. This level often acts as a strong support in trending markets. Trading Strategy: Entry Point: Consider a long position if the price respects the 0.786 Fibonacci level and shows bullish reversal signals such as a pin bar or bullish engulfing candle. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the recent swing low at around 0.63817 to protect against unexpected reversals. Profit Targets: Aim for initial profits at the recent swing high around 0.64030. Further targets could be set at Fibonacci extension levels of 1.618 (0.64251) and 2.618 (0.64062) if the upward momentum continues. Risk Management: Adjust position size to maintain a risk profile of no more than 2% of the trading capital. Monitor the trade closely for signs of weakening momentum or reversal patterns near target levels. This strategy capitalizes on the trend continuation pattern and uses Fibonacci levels for strategic entry and exit points.
Long
by HUGO_DT150
AUD: a hawkish cut from the RBA?We continue to expect the RBA to start its rate cutting cycle with a hawkish 25bp rate cut on Tuesday. Australian trimmed mean inflation surprised the central bank 20bp to the downside coming out at 3.2% YoY in Q4. On a 6M annualised basis, trimmed mean inflation is running close to the centre of the central bank’s 2-3% target band. Household consumption appears to be picking up following income tax cuts and the introduction of the government’s cost-of-living measures, but recent retail sales have been given a boost by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and consumption likely remains soft. While Australia’s labour market remains tight with an unemployment rate of 4%, the RBA will likely lower its estimate of NAIRU from 4.25% to around 4% given that wage inflation is coming off despite the stubbornly low unemployment rate. The central bank should also lower its inflation and growth forecasts to justify its rate cut. While the RBA may want to hold off for another quarterly inflation print to be more confident, inflation is coming sustainably back within its 2-3% target band, waiting until after the Q1 inflation data on 30 April would mean the central bank would be very likely be cutting rates during a Federal election. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will manage households’ expectations, however, in her press conference and parliamentary committee hearing later this week. She will point to a likely shallow rate cutting cycle for several reasons. First, rental inflation while coming lower as immigration slows is coming off high levels. Construction of rental properties is occurring at a snail’s pace. Second, fiscal policy will continue working against monetary policy during an election year, the ALP and opposition Liberal-National Party coalition (LNP) have already pledged over AUD10bn in additional spending; and the official election campaign has not even started. Third, trade frictions and tariffs generated by the administration of President Donald Trump will add to international inflation pressures in Australia. The US economy also remains robust and there is a growing risk of the FOMC not cutting rates any further. A strong US economy is good news for the Australian economy and will also limit RBA rate cuts. At 4.35%, the RBA’s cash rate is not far above the RBA’s central estimate of neutral of around 3.50%. With the market about 85% priced for a 25bp cut by the RBA this week, the kneejerk reaction in the AUD will be lower, but then the focus will be on Bullock’s rhetoric. We continue to look for just 75-100 bp worth of rate cuts by the RBA in 2025 and this is in line with current market pricing. Australian wages and labour market data out later in the week hold further volatility for the AUD.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
Massive week for Aussie and Kiwi markets The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged. However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call. If the RBA cuts rates on Tuesday, it could support the government's message that cost-of-living pressures are easing and could lead to an early election announcement. If rates remain unchanged, the prime minister may delay the election until mid-April or May, hoping for a cut at the RBA’s next meeting on April 1. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates this week, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 50bps cut and a 32% chance of a 25bps reduction. A Reuters poll of 33 economists found 32 expecting a 50bps cut. However, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley anticipates smaller 25bps cuts in April and May instead.
by BlackBull_Markets
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Long
by reventioaxie