AUDUSD Discretional Analysis: It's Going Down, BroI don't know man, I have a feeling it's gonna go down. If I'm right I'll make some money and if I'm wrong I'll lose some money.
Just my opinion, not financial advice.
AUDUSD.P trade ideas
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
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Key Points
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.10%, citing uncertainties in leading economic indicators, including the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. Markets expect the RBA to cut rates in May.
- The Washington Post reported that White House staff have drafted a proposal to impose a 20% tariff on most U.S. imports.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the European Union has the power to negotiate with the U.S. and to retaliate if necessary.
- The March ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector has entered a contraction phase. Meanwhile, the February JOLTS Job Openings report showed 7.57 million job openings, missing market expectations, suggesting a gradual slowdown in the labor market. These two indicators hint at the formation of stagflation in the U.S. economy.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 2: U.S. March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
+ April 4: U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
With the market frozen ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, AUDUSD remains largely range-bound. Technically, a short-term rise to 0.63500 is likely, followed by a decline toward 0.60000. However, given potential variables, a breakout above 0.63500 is possible, which could extend gains toward 0.66000.
Potential bullish rise?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6261
1st Support: 0.6229
1st Resistance: 0.6322
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AUD/USD - Sell SetupThis pair has been showing us some choppy price action for a little while now with some small price movements but we are finally starting to see some movements
Higher Time frames show us a break of support as well as a breakout trade from this Liquidity Trend in the Long Term
The Short Term movement Im looking for will be price respecting this Supply zone and sweeping Buy Side Liquidity before taking out our protected Low. I will then refer to my entry model before entering
We currently have sellers momentum, also are below the 200 EMA
Good luck to the Traders that follow
Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Mon 31st March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 0.62668
Profit level 0.61308 (2.17%)
Stop level 0.63038 (0.59%)
RR 3.68
Reason: WMA (100) and EMA (50)
Observed for sellside directional bias
along with the price failing to make a
higher high.
Target 0.382 (PD Array)
4Hr TF overview
AUD_USD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅AUD_USD is trading in an
Downtrend and the pair
Made a bearish breakout
Then made a retest and
Is going down now again
So we are bearish biased
And a bearish continuation
Is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDUSD Triangle Break Looms on Tariff RiskAUDUSD is trading inside a triangle pattern that's been forming for 83 days. A break below 0.6215 could trigger a 188-pip drop, with a 3.82 risk-reward setup. While the RBA held rates at 4.1%, upcoming US tariffs on Liberation Day may pressure the Aussie. Fundamentals and technicals align for a potential bearish move.
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AUDUSD 4h Descending ChannelAUD/USD Analysis - April 1, 2025 (1H Timeframe)
Trend Overview
The pair is currently in a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows—indicating a downtrend.
Price has reached a strong demand zone (purple box) around 0.6240 - 0.6260, which has previously acted as support.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone (0.6240 - 0.6260)
If price holds and forms bullish price action (e.g., higher low, engulfing candle), we could see a reversal to the upside toward 0.6280 - 0.6300.
Bullish Confirmation: Break above 0.6260 and a close above the descending trendline.
Resistance Levels:
0.6260 (Immediate resistance & trendline rejection zone)
0.6280 - 0.6300 (Major resistance if the breakout happens)
Bearish Breakdown Scenario
If price fails to break 0.6260 and gets rejected at the trendline, it could lead to a drop toward 0.6220 - 0.6200.
Bearish Confirmation: A strong rejection from 0.6260 or a break below 0.6240.
Trade Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case (Reversal / Breakout)
Entry: Above 0.6260 with confirmation (trendline breakout)
Target 1: 0.6280
Target 2: 0.6300
Stop Loss: Below 0.6235
🔻 Bearish Case (Continuation of Downtrend)
Entry: On rejection at 0.6260 or breakdown below 0.6240
Target 1: 0.6220
Target 2: 0.6200
Stop Loss: Above 0.6270
Conclusion
Watch for price action at 0.6260. A breakout = bullish move, rejection = bearish continuation.
Bias: Neutral for now, waiting for confirmation.
No Rate Hike, No Mercy – AUD/USD Selling in Style!Riding the wave of bearish structure, AUD/USD continues to follow the macro trend with laser precision. After the RBA held rates steady, we’re seeing the typical post-news dump play out—fueled by the market’s disappointment and reduced sentiment.
Technically, price respected the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and showed strong displacement to the downside, confirming continuation.
Key Targets:
🔻 0.62311 – Minor liquidity
🔻 0.62185 – 1H Sell-side liquidity
🔻 0.61703 – Ultimate short-term sell-side target
Expecting the market to bleed lower unless major fundamentals flip the bias. Until then... the trend is your bestie.
DYOR 🧠📉
AUDUSD SELL 0.6280On the daily chart, AUDUSD fluctuated downward, and the bears had the upper hand. At present, you can pay attention to the resistance near 0.6280. If the rebound encounters resistance, you can consider continuing to sell. The support below is around 0.6190. If it falls below, it will go to around 0.6100. If the price breaks through the resistance near 0.6330, it will start to rise.
01-04-2025 _ Short Term Bearish Idea _ AUDUSD M151- Twizer Top
2- One can expect a pull back to Fibo 38.2 - 50% zone
AUDUSD: Strong Bearish PatternIt is likely that the 📉AUDUSD will drop lower in the near future.
The formation of a head and shoulders pattern, along with a breakout of its neckline after testing a key resistance, indicates a strong bearish signal.
The target is set at 0.6218.
RBA Holds Their Cash Rate, May Cut Neither Confirmed Nor DeniedThe RBA held their cash rate at 4.1%, and keep a May cut up in the air without any appetite to commit to one. I highlight my observations on the RBA's statement, before updating my analysis for AUD/USD, AUD/CAD and GBP/AUD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
AUDUSD-SHORTAU is forming a beautiful bearish trend on a 4 hr time frame. AU is also a correlative pair with GA and we see that GA just broke a consolidation zone to the upside giving potential signs of bullish continuation. If AU respects FIB zones, it should continue to the downside to form next lower low. Of course, news will play a role in our bias for now and we will wait for entry before taking sells on AU.
Shorting AUDaily chart showing bearishness.
4h chart showing potential internal range to external range move. Fair value gap is in premium
1h showing SMT divergence and entry above opening price
AUDUSD & NZDUSD Sell idea/analysis based on daily timeframeTook this trade based on a downtrend forming and the retest of a H&S on the daily chart with a minimum requirement of 1 lower low and 1 lower high. I saw a bounce before the price touches the previous low on the 4-hour chart, which could shape my 2nd lower high, and I entered the trade.
AUDUSD Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
AUD-USD made a bearish
Breakout of key horizontal
Level of 0.62670 so we are
Bearish biased and after
A potential pullback we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Why the RBA should cut rates todayThe Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates today, argues James Glynn in the Wall Street Journal .
Markets, however, expect the central bank to wait until May for its next move. RBA Governor Michele Bullock remains cautious, citing lingering inflation.
But Glynn contends that global uncertainty now outweighs the RBA’s desire to wait for marginal improvements in inflation data. That uncertainty is set to escalate this Wednesday, with the Trump administration announcing sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners—likely triggering retaliatory measures.
Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Australia, appears to support Glynn’s view: “There are costs to waiting until May to cut. Waiting is not always a virtue.”
Is Glynn simply chasing a contrarian headline or is there actually a possibility the RBA could act today?
AUD/USD BUY zone H4 chart analysisAUD/USD:
Trade Setup
Entry: 0.62517
Final Target (TP): 0.64963
Stop Loss (SL): 0.61800 (Below recent support to protect against invalidation)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Levels: 0.62200 - 0.62500 (Potential demand zone)
Resistance Levels: 0.64000 - 0.64963 (Major supply zone & upper trendline resistance)
Trade Outlook
Bullish Bias: Price is expected to rise from the support zone.
Confirmation Signals: Look for bullish rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a break above 0.63100 for momentum confirmation.
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable setup with a good upside potential.
