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AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel. Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.” The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months. These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration. Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion. According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate. Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets. However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes. Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance. Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount AUD/USD declined below the 0.6400 and 0.6375 support levels. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today - The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen. AUD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6430 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6400 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis. The pair even settled below 0.6375 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6340. A low was formed at 0.6317 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6340 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6375 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6385. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6430 resistance. A close above the 0.6430 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500. On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6320 zone. The next support sits at 0.6350. If there is a downside break below 0.6350, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6320. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6300 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
AUDUSD 3H ShortThe AUD/USD 3-hour chart shows a potential bearish continuation setup as price trades below the Kijun-sen (blue) and Tenkan-sen (red), while remaining well under the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), indicating a strong bearish trend. The red Kumo ahead reinforces selling pressure, and price’s recent failure to hold above resistance signals further downside potential. A bearish continuation below the current support at 0.6317 could open a path towards the next key level at 0.6306, while a stop-loss above the Kijun-sen near 0.6346 helps manage risk, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by ALRDNMRSKY
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. retail sales for November, reported by the Department of Commerce, increased by 0.7%, surpassing market expectations. - Strong retail sales indicate that the momentum of the U.S. economy is strengthening. While a rate hold is widely expected at the December FOMC meeting, the prevailing view is that rates will also remain on hold in January. - With the Japanese yen weakening further against the dollar, some suggest that Japanese authorities might intervene in the currency markets. I- n the U.K., wages rose by 5.2% year-over-year from August to October, exceeding expectations and driving the pound higher. - In Canada, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9%, falling short of the market estimate of 2.0%, which weakened the Canadian dollar. Key Economic Indicators + December 18: U.K. November CPI, Eurozone November CPI, FOMC meeting results + December 19: Bank of Japan rate decision, Bank of England rate decision + December 20: U.S. November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index AUD/USD Chart Analysis The AUD/USD pair has finally broken below the 0.63500 level. Based on the current chart, further declines toward the 0.62000 level seem likely. However, the direction could shift upward depending on the stance the Federal Reserve takes during this week’s FOMC meeting. If unexpected factors lead to an upward move, I’ll quickly revise the strategy accordingly.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Precision Trade Setup on AUD/USD with a Bullish Gartley PatternThe AUD/USD is setting up for a potential reversal near a key harmonic "Gartley" formation. This advanced technical structure, combined with critical confluences, highlights an area of high-probability trade opportunities. Strategy: Buy at the Reversal Point (D) Rationale: The harmonic Gartley pattern suggests a potential trend reversal near 0.628, aligning with a long-term trendline and a horizontal support zone (highlighted in purple). RSI indicates oversold conditions, and the TDI shows bullish divergence, reinforcing the case for a recovery. A significant risk-reward ratio makes this trade an attractive opportunity. Trade Parameters: Entry Zone: 0.628 Stop Loss: 0.657 Take Profit: 0.6457 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3+ While the technical setup is compelling, it is crucial to remain vigilant about price action in lower timeframes. Always confirm price action before entering a position.
Long
by MrVNpt
1
AUDUSD - Simplified20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends: (Away from charts) It will be prudent to give your mind, body and soul a good rest, to recharge for the new upcoming exciting year! How I see it: Pair remains severely bearish. Any TP can serve as a strong enough support for a reversal Firstly, a series of quality HL's is required A 1D break, and body close above confluence could be a good bull signal Keynote! The RBA will have to intervene in some shape or form against the new $ strength. I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
Short
by ANROC
AUDUSD Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.633. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.637. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
Update levels AUDUSD 11.12.24I had to modify this analysis a little because I interpreted the closing triangle here which was wrong, plus I added some levels here and overall I think the market will go a little lower around the price of 0.62700, we could finally create an SFP from this zone, we could move somewhere for the price, easily around the level of 0.67, which is also the point where there is poc level suppor and the fibo level of 0.618, but for now it's still just a matter of waiting.
Long
by Sony97
16