AUDUSD - ShortLooking at targeting the low of the 4HR FVG.
Price swept the liquidity and broke to the downside, created a 1hr fvg (very small). Entry should have been on that FVG but missed the gap and watched the retraced and saw a 5min break in structure and FVG.
Pretty identical set up to the last one i posted this week on this pair
AUDUSD.P trade ideas
AUDUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart shows a bearish pattern setup on the AUD/USD 30-minute timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of what the chart indicates:
Pattern Type: It looks like a bearish double or triple top pattern with clear swing highs (marked with orange circles) and lows.
Entry Point: The price appears to be rejecting a resistance zone around 0.6447, which is where the short position is initiated (marked by the red arrow).
Stop Loss: Set just above the resistance zone, around 0.6450.
**Take
Long trade
Trade Overview: AUDUSD – Long Position (Trade 2)
Entry Price: 0.63674
Take Profit: 0.64381 (+1.10%)
Stop Loss: 0.63421 (–0.40%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.79
🕕 Entry Time: 6:00 PM (New York Time)
📅 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025
🌍 Session: NY to Tokyo Overlap (PM)
🧭 Higher Timeframe Structure: 1-Hour TF
⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF
Reasoning Narrative
AUDUSD maintained a bullish structure on the 1-hour timeframe, with price forming higher lows and consolidating just below a key resistance area before the session crossover.
AUD/USD DTF Time Frame – Technical & Fundamental AnalysisAUD/USD DTF Time Frame – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Technical Outlook:
On the daily time frame, AUD/USD has been consolidating after a strong bearish move that drove price down to the 0.59000 level. Following this, significant buying pressure led to a breakout above the anticipated major key resistance at 0.63500.
Currently, price action is indicating accumulation above this critical level, confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle. This suggests that buyers may continue to gain momentum in the near term.
However, it’s worth noting that liquidity has not yet formed, which indicates the potential for a liquidity hunt between defined zones. Based on this, our current strategy is:
Buy Limit Order: 0.63080 (within the liquidity zone) to capitalize on the opportunity, aiming for a higher reward with a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop Loss: 0.62560
Take Profit: 0.65230 (next minor key resistance)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4
This setup aligns with the broader bullish structure forming on the daily time frame.
Fundamental Outlook:
Australia’s positive fundamentals are contributing to a bullish outlook for AUD/USD:
Commodity Price Recovery: A significant rebound in global commodity prices, especially for iron ore, coal, and copper, has supported Australia’s key exports, boosting demand for the AUD.
China’s Economic Rebound: As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s economic recovery—marked by increased industrial output and government stimulus—has led to a surge in export demand, which is also strengthening the Australian dollar.
Domestic Stability in Australia: The Australian economy is showing signs of stabilization, with stronger-than-expected employment data and rising consumer confidence. These developments reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
On the other hand, the U.S. fundamentals are showing some weakness:
Weaker-than-Expected Unemployment Claims: The latest U.S. Unemployment Claims came in at 222K, higher than the forecast of 215K and previous 215K, indicating a slight softening in the U.S. labor market. This adds further downward pressure on the USD, especially as concerns over economic momentum rise.
Conclusion:
Given the strong bullish technical setup and positive fundamentals for the Australian dollar, combined with the recent weakness in U.S. employment data, the outlook for AUD/USD remains bullish.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
AUD/USD is Bullish: More Gains AheadFenzoFx—The AUD/USD pair rebounded from the $0.6363 support level, aided by the 50-period simple moving average, and is currently trading near $0.6413.
Resistance stands at $0.6444. A close above this level may extend the bullish move toward $0.6940 and $0.7200.
Bearish Scenario : A drop below $0.6363 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially triggering a decline toward $0.6322.
AUD/USD broke out above 0.64000, time to reassess the planAUD/USD trade idea – not a position, just a setup to watch 👀
We’re seeing a potential 1H double top forming after a strong bullish leg, supported by a clean rejection candle and my TWT pattern. This could lead to a pullback toward the golden zone of the Fibonacci retracement — which opens up a possible long opportunity in line with the trend.
For short-term traders, there might be a chance to catch a short here if the double top confirms, but it's definitely more aggressive and riskier, as you'd be trading against the broader bullish trend. Watching price action closely from here will be key. Let's see how it plays out.
Week of 4/20/25: AUDUSD AnalysisWeekly and daily candles are consecutively bullish with a V-shape recovery to the upside. Looking for longs and especially keeping an eye out for the 1H POI flip-zone that I refined in the 4H POI.
Unless 1H internal structure shifts bearish, I am long ALL THE WAY!
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for tuning in, have a great week.
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/04/2025Tuesday's price action on FX:AUDUSD , we got a textbook Judas Swing play and for those still getting used to spotting these setups in real-time, let’s break this one down and talk through what happened and more importantly, why it happened.
Going into the session open, we had a relatively tight consolidation, with the 00:00 - 08:30est range acting as a container for liquidity. Price had built up liquidity at the high and low of the zone. Whichever side gets swept first will determine our directional bias for the session
Just after the session began, we saw price aggressively push up taking out the buy side liquidity resting above those early highs. This is what is called the "Judas move", a false breakout meant to trap breakout buyers and entice liquidity into the market. This move is not random. It’s designed to induce traders into the wrong side of the market before the real direction reveals itself
As soon as that liquidity grab was complete, we noticed price begin to stall and form a shift in market structure. This is critical. Once you see a break of structure to the downside, followed by a lower high into a FVG, that’s your confirmation that the real move, the sell-off is in play. We then saw clean displacement to the downside, confirming the manipulation phase was over
Now we wait for a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We'll only look to execute a trade once a candle enters the FVG and closes. After a few minutes of waiting, price finally retraced into the FVG, giving us the green light to execute the trade.
Entry: 0.63749
Stop loss: 0.63849
Take profit: 0.63549
This FX:AUDUSD trade gave us a smooth ride with minimal drawdown. Right after entry price moved swiftly into profit. Although there was a brief retrace back to our entry point, it quickly corrected, and we were back in the green. With just a 1% risk, the trade delivered a solid 2% return all within 1 hour and 20 minutes
This setup is an excellent example of why you don’t want to chase early session breakouts blindly. The Judas Swing strategy teaches us to look for the trap, wait for confirmation, and then trade in alignment with the real intention behind price. Beginners often get caught up in the initial move, thinking it’s the real trend. But if you can slow down, understand the time of day, the draw on liquidity, and the reaction around key highs/lows, you’ll start to see how often price manipulates before delivering.
AUDUSDThe market is currently exhibiting a prevailing downtrend, prompting a focus on identifying potential short-selling opportunities. According to this analysis, a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern has formed on the 3-5min chart, presenting a potential bearish entry following a confirmed break below the neckline.
For traders who have entered short positions based on this pattern, there are two potential target levels identified at and , derived by the hourly strong resistance level, the 4 hour downtrend, the previous recent lower low, the overbought RSI, and a few other indicators used.
Conversely, while the primary focus is on sell opportunities due to the overarching downtrend, potential long positions would require more significant confirming signals. These confirmations may include [ a break and close above a key resistance level, bullish divergence on a specific indicator, positive fundamentals and a LOCK.
Further detailed analysis and real-time updates are available just send a message or leave a comment!
AUDUSD(20250416)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
0.6346
Support and resistance levels:
0.6414
0.6388
0.6372
0.6320
0.6304
0.6278
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 0.6346, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6372
If the price breaks through 0.6320, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6304
AUD/USD⚔️ Strategy Options:
🟢 Bullish Tactical Play (Range Swing):
Only valid if price closes weekly above 0.6450.
Entry: Buy limit on retest of 0.6310
SL: 0.6150
TP1: 0.6500
TP2: 0.6850
This is a short-term retracement play against a longer-term bearish trend.
🔴 Bearish Trend Continuation:
Ideal if weekly closes below 0.6200
Entry: Sell retrace at 0.6300
SL: 0.6460
TP1: 0.6000
TP2: 0.5800–0.5650
This aligns with macro pressure (risk-off + China slowdown) and offers clean structure.
AUD/USD is Overbought: Awaiting CorrectionFenzoFx—AUD/USD is in a strong bullish run, nearing the $0.6407 resistance. The Stochastic Oscillator signals overbought conditions, indicating the Australian dollar is overpriced in the short term.
While the trend remains bullish, consolidation may follow, with potential support at $0.6276.
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AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D15 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D15 Y25
Good Morning Traders!
A very similar setup to what was forecast yesterday! Take a look.
We are sitting in varies higher time frame order blocks with confluence stacking.
We have had a move off the point of interest identified yesterday and a 15' order block was created on the bearish move.
Let price action gravitate to our 15' order block in London for a continued short.
FRGNT X
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 14 April 2025- AUDUSD reversed from the long-term support level 0.5945
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the major long-term support level 0.5945 (which started the sharp weekly uptrend in 2020) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – strong buy signal for AUDUSD .
Given the clear bullish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator and the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6400.
AUD/USD - Potential TargetsDear Fellow Traders,
How I see it:
First "SHORT" then "LONG"
My "BEARISH" targets in case Daily "Trend Resistance" holds -
* TP1 & TP 2 as indicated.
My "BULLISH" targets in case Daily "Trend Resistance" are breached -
* TP1 & TP2 as indicated.
Feel free to ask if anything is unclear.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Aussie H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6264 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 0.6170 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 0.6390 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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AUDUSD(20250414)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Collins: It is currently expected that the Fed will need to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period of time. If necessary, the Fed is "absolutely" ready to help stabilize the market; Kashkari: No serious chaos has been seen yet, and the Fed should intervene cautiously only in truly urgent situations; Musallem: The Fed should be wary of continued inflation driven by tariffs.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
0.6256
Support and resistance levels:
0.6374
0.6330
0.6301
0.6210
0.6182
0.6138
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 0.6301, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6330
If the price breaks through 0.6256, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6210