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The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, falling short of the market expectation of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, it increased by 2.2%, a significant slowdown from the previous month's 2.7%. As the PPI was released under the most favorable conditions the market could hope for, expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened once again.
Meanwhile, with an imminent Iranian attack on Israel, and no progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Middle Eastern geopolitical risks have resurfaced.
- On August 14, the U.K. Consumer Price Index for July and the U.S. Consumer Price Index for July will be released.
- On August 15, Japan’s Q2 GDP, the U.K.’s Q2 GDP, and the U.S. Retail Sales data for July will be released.
- On August 20, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for July will be released.
The AUDUSD has rebounded from the expected support area and is now entering the process of forming an upward trend. Since the low has held well, if it breaks above the 0.69000 level, we can consider the uptrend to be established. However, it is expected that there will be a brief pullback at the 0.69000 level before breaking through resistance, so please keep this in mind.
If, contrary to expectations, a strong downward movement occurs, I will quickly adjust the strategy.