something interesting about the 7 day btc chartno description needed unless u want one. if you do message me to get an explanation but this one is pretty straight forward
BEARUSD trade ideas
Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk managementAs a professional trader, I can tell you about the adverse excursion and its crucial importance in the world of trading.
Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk management
Adverse excursion refers to the unfavorable movement of the price of an asset after a position is opened. More precisely, it is the difference between the entry price and the worst point the price reaches before the position becomes profitable again or is closed.
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
The concept of Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE), developed by John Sweeney, is particularly useful. It measures the maximum floating loss suffered by a position before it turns in your favor or is closed. The MAE is a powerful statistical tool for analyzing drawdowns in an open position.
Trading Efficiency
Using MAE has several benefits for traders:
Optimizing Stop-Loss: By analyzing MAE over a series of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined.
Evaluating Trading Systems: MAE helps evaluate the performance of trading systems and identify areas for improvement.
Refining Risk Management Strategies: By understanding the maximum adverse moves, traders can refine their strategies to better preserve their capital.
Improving Trading Efficiency: MAE analysis can help improve decision-making and execute trades with greater accuracy and confidence.
Practical Application
To effectively use the concept of adverse excursion, it is crucial to collect data on a large number of trades. For example, if you observe a series of MAEs like this: 15, 23, 18, 16, 0, 11, 31, 17, 8, 0, 19, 26, 0, 38, 22, you can deduce valuable information about the behavior of your trades and adjust your stop-loss levels accordingly.
In conclusion, the adverse excursion and especially the MAE are powerful tools for any serious trader. They allow to optimize risk management, improve the performance of strategies and make more informed decisions. As they say in the trade, "who controls his risks, controls his profits".
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Using the Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) has several significant advantages over traditional stop-loss placement methods:
Data-driven optimization
The MAE allows for a more precise and data-driven approach to stop-loss placement:
Statistical analysis: By examining the distribution of the MAE over a large number of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined.
Performance visualization: The graphical representation of the MAE provides a clear overview of trade performance, allowing the most effective stop-loss levels to be visually identified.
Balancing protection and performance
The MAE helps to find an optimal balance between capital protection and trading performance:
Retention of winning trades: The stop-loss can be placed to retain 75-85% of winning trades, thus avoiding prematurely cutting potentially profitable positions.
Elimination of large losses: At the same time, this approach eliminates trades that suffer large losses, thus protecting capital.
Adaptation to the specific strategy
The MAE adapts to the unique characteristics of each trading strategy:
Customization: Unlike generic methods, the MAE takes into account the specific behavior of the trades of a given strategy.
Flexibility: This approach can be applied to a variety of strategies, whether short-term trading, swing trading, or long-term positions3.
Improved risk management
Using the MAE contributes to better overall risk management:
Deep understanding: The MAE provides a more nuanced understanding of how trades evolve, allowing for better risk assessment.
Reduced stress: By having a solid basis for placing stop-losses, traders can reduce the stress associated with real-time decision-making.
Complementarity with other tools
The MAE can be used in conjunction with other techniques:
Combination with the MFE: The analysis of the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) in parallel can help to optimize not only the stop-losses, but also the profit-taking.
Cross-validation: The results obtained by the MAE analysis can be compared with those of traditional parameter optimization methods for greater confidence in the strategy.
The opportunity to buy BTC is here.If you want to buy
Now is a good time to buy!
buy 86K
TP1 90K
TP2 91K
TP3 92K. . .
BTCUSD chart Anylisis 1Hour check captain BTCUSD chart Anylisis 1Hour idea 💡
Trade at own your risk use proper money management
Bitcoin: Is the Bull Run Over or Just Taking a Breather?Bitcoin’s dream rally has hit a major roadblock. After falling below $89,000 for the first time since November 2024, fears of a deeper correction have gripped the market. The catalyst? U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed "Tariff War," imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This move rattled both traditional and crypto markets, dragging total crypto market capitalization below $3 trillion.
With market sentiment plunging to 25—the same levels seen during the FTX collapse—Bitcoin is now sitting at the neckline of a major bearish pattern, raising concerns about whether more downside is ahead.
Is Bitcoin’s Structure Still Bullish?
🔹 Descending Parallel Channel – BTC mirrors a pattern from early 2024, when prices dropped to $54,000 before soaring to $109K.
🔹 Key Support at $85,000 – A test of this level could trigger a rebound.
🔹 RSI Declining to 44.39 – Momentum is cooling, but a reversal could be near.
🔹 MACD Still Positive – Despite rising selling pressure, BTC’s weekly MACD suggests a potential bounce.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
📌 Bullish Case – If Bitcoin bounces off support at $85K, a breakout from this descending channel could push it to a new ATH above $112K.
📌 Bearish Case – If BTC fails to hold, it could face extended downside pressure, breaking below key support zones.
The bull run isn’t necessarily over, but BTC is at a critical turning point. If history repeats itself, this correction could be the reset needed before a push to new highs.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis (Updated Bearish Scenario)Will BTC go down to 72k?
In my previous Analysis I talked about BTC consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern indicating indecision in the market.
first BTC has broken down from the symmetric triangle with a bearish engulfing candle, indicating bears has enter the market.
Secondly BTC has broken the Blue support zone indicating more bears confirmation.
for now I will advice to wait for a retest towards the blue zone or towards symmetric triangle then look for entry pattern for a sell/short position.
Key Bearish Levels to Watch:
Support: $72,000 is the main level to monitor. A strong reaction here could lead to a temporary bounce.
Breakdown Risk: If BTC fails to hold $72,000, increased selling pressure could drive further downside.
Bearish Confirmation:
Sustained trading below $72,000 could signal continuation of the downtrend.
Low buying volume at this level would indicate weak support and higher chances of a breakdown.
RSI and momentum indicators turning oversold could hint at a short-term relief bounce.
Potential Scenarios:
1. If BTC Holds $72,000: A consolidation or bounce could occur, leading to a possible recovery.
BTC/USD - 15M SMC Analysis📊 BTC/USD - 15M SMC Analysis
📉 Current Price: 90,636.47
📊 SMC Levels & Market Structure:
✅ Demand Zone (Green Area) – Potential reversal zone
✅ Key Breakout Level: 92,871.74
✅ Final Target: 94,945.60
🔹 Trading Plan – Bullish Bias
📈 Entry: Look for confirmations at the demand zone for a buy setup.
🎯 First Target: 92,871.74 (Breakout confirmation)
🎯 Final Target: 94,945.60 (Major resistance area)
📌 Key Considerations:
• Watch for liquidity grabs before the price moves up.
• If 92,871.74 holds as support, expect a push toward 94,945.60.
• Invalidation: Drop below the demand zone may indicate further downside.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoTrading #SmartMoney #Liquidity #SMC #OrderBlock #FXFOREVER
Re Accumulation pattern ? or Head and shoulders Distribution?BTC could possibly be a painting a Re-accumulation schematic 1 pattern .It would certainly cause the moist pain both ways .
#Bitcoin on the brink of a big moveSit tight. #Bitcoin is about to get mad to the upside. Enjoy the ride my friends.
Bitcoin correctionIn the weekly and daily time frames,
From a technical analysis perspective, the previous ceiling will not be broken at all. As long as the price touches (at least) 83,800
BTCUSD Forecast and technical analysis H1 Time Frame.BTCUSD Forecast and technical analysis H1 Time Frame next move possible. After this level breakout. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin Rallies, but Institutional Caution RemainsBitcoin extends its bullish momentum, supported by increased risk appetite in the cryptocurrency sector, marking three consecutive sessions of gains and heading towards a positive weekly close after three weeks under pressure. Currently, it is trading around $99,000, reinforcing the perception that, despite recent volatility, investors still maintain support and interest in crypto assets.
However, signs of caution emerge from the institutional front. This week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant outflows, with $364 million withdrawn yesterday and a total of $490 million so far this week. This behavior suggests that some institutional participants prefer to stay on the sidelines amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
A relatively positive factor comes from the derivatives market, where short liquidations far exceed long positions, indicating that traders have closed their bearish exposures after being pressured by the recent rally. Meanwhile, open interest rose 7.2% to reach $35.2 billion, mostly driven by long positions.
On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve's restrictive stance continues to weigh on Bitcoin's potential. Recently, FED members reaffirmed their intention to keep interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, maintaining pressure on higher-risk assets. This high-rate environment limits the appeal of riskier assets, affecting the performance of Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks.
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Bitcoin Breaking Out?Bitcoin's daily chart is showing signs of strength as price pushes toward the key resistance zone at 99,860, now testing both horizontal resistance and the 50-day moving average. A decisive close above this level would be a bullish signal, potentially opening the door for a move toward the next major resistance at 106,099. However, rejection at this level could lead to another period of consolidation or even a retest of recent lows. Volume has picked up slightly, indicating growing interest, but a breakout would require stronger confirmation. The market remains in a pivotal zone, where bulls need to reclaim key levels to shift momentum in their favor.
Bitcoin price increaseAfter the tensions between traders in the United States and the strong price fluctuations in the dollar and other stocks, and after the 3-month increase in gold, this time it will be the turn of digital currencies to increase again and there are signs of their increase in the market. For Bitcoin, two increase targets can be considered: $110,000 - $120,000.
Sasha Charkhchian
Bitcoins next move: A good asset to buy at current priceHello,
Bitcoin’s journey through 2024 was nothing short of extraordinary, setting the stage for yet another transformative year. Institutional adoption surged, regulatory clarity improved, and technological advancements picked up pace—leaving one big question on everyone’s mind: where is Bitcoin headed in 2025?
At the start of 2025, Bitcoin soared past $109,000, marking its highest price in history. However, after this record-breaking rally, the cryptocurrency retraced to its current levels around $95,000.
Bitcoin’s rise in 2024 solidified its status as a mainstream asset. The approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC was a game-changer, unlocking billions in new liquidity and cementing Bitcoin as a legitimate investment vehicle. Institutional adoption followed suit, with major players like BlackRock and BNY Mellon stepping in to offer custody and trading solutions. This influx of institutional confidence fueled Bitcoin’s dramatic and sustained climb throughout the year.
Looking ahead, there’s a strong case for Bitcoin reclaiming its recent highs. In a significant policy shift, U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the formation of a cryptocurrency working group to draft new digital asset regulations and explore the creation of a national cryptocurrency reserve. At the same time, he has banned the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the U.S., ensuring that Bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies face less direct competition from government-issued alternatives. These moves signal a push toward clearer, more crypto-friendly regulations.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently at a strong buy zone, trading at the lower boundary of an expanding triangle pattern. A breakout toward $110,800 appears likely, with the MACD indicator nearing a zero crossover—often a sign that bullish momentum is building. Investors looking to capitalize on this setup can enter positions through brokers that integrate with TradingView. www.tradingview.com such as TradeNation.
As the crypto market navigates a rapidly evolving regulatory and institutional landscape, Bitcoin’s next move offers great opportunity for buys.
BITCOIN bounced on last Cycle's Pivot and targets $125k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating every since the Double All Time High (ATH) formation of December and January. As we've pointed out in previous analyses, this is similar to the December 2023 - January 2024 consolidation.
What we haven't seen before and we bring it forward to you today, is that the January 2025 Low was priced exactly on the Higher Highs trend-line that emerged from the November 2021 and April 2021 Highs, i.e. the previous Cycle's tops!
To make things more interesting, we can see an identical Higher Highs trend-line that held the January 2024 Low (of the similar consolidation phase we discuss above) with an identical 1W RSI sequence as well. That was what initiated the February - March 2024 rally.
Assuming the current Low holds, BTC should kick start any time now the new 2025 Bullish Leg, which technically eyes the Higher Highs trend-line of the current Bull Cycle (dotted line). Even if it starts as early as this week, it should target at least $125000.
Do you think that is a plausible scenario, assuming the former Higher Highs trend-line, which has now turned to a pivot, holds? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The road to 150k is wide open.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is consolidating on the very same Fibonaci level it did during the previous Cycle.
As you see, it was on the 0.786 Fibonacci that BTC traded sideways 4 years ago during January-February 2021.
With the 1week MA50 as the support, it made a November 2021 Cycle Top.
According to this, we can easily see $150k by the end of this year.
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Bitcoin: preparing for the breakThe inflation figures, Fed next moves, potential impact of US Administration on Fed's decisions, trade tariffs were all unknowns on the financial markets during the previous period, which impact that the BTC was sort of left a bit behind. From the beginning of February, BTC entered into sort of side trading, between levels of $ 98K to the upside and $95K to the downside. There were occasionally attempts for a higher or a lower ground, however, the market swiftly diminished such moves, turning the price of BTC back to the channel.
Similar situations continued also during the previous week. The BTC continued to move in a range between the levels of $98,75K and $94,5K, continuing the channel from the beginning of February. The RSI is almost flat for the last 15 days, moving around the level of 50. It shows that the market is still not ready to choose the trading side. The MA50 and MA200 are currently moving as two parallel lines, without an indication of a potential cross in the near period.
From the perspective of the technical analysis, a movement in a channel indicates that soon the financial asset will make a final break, either toward the upside, or toward the downside. The chances are equal for both sides. What is also strongly evident on BTC daily chart is a strong support at $92K. In this sense, a break of a channel to the down side would imply that BTC will find support again at this level. If a break occurs to the upside, then the next strong resistance line holds at $100K. Still, there is a question whether this break will occur in the week ahead or BTC will spend another week in this channel? The technical analysis can indicate levels, but not the exact timeframe in which these levels will be reached.
BTC/USD Moving In Range,Best Place To Buy And To Sell Very ClearThis Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
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Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Consolidation, Theft, and Market ForcesBitcoin continues to consolidate in the 90k - 106k area! Recently there was an act of theft from the ByBit cold wallet, resulting in over $1.5 billion worth of ETH being stolen. This is definitely a negative backdrop, we have seen good support from other exchanges and crypto project funders. Theoretically, it would be possible to roll the chain back as Arthur Hayes suggested, but it doesn't seem to be possible, although it would definitely play in favor of the bulls. I would expect a drop to the $91800 area for several reasons:
1. Bear dominance. This can be seen in the bullish and bearish volume indicator. Bullish volumes have fallen while strong sales volume growth is noticeable.
2. Elliott Wave Correction
3. BlackRock sold 3,283 BTC before the ByBit hack and has yet to buy more.
4. According to the smart money concept, 92400-91200 is a magnet.
5. Need to liquidate a large number of long positions that gained momentum after leaving the 99k level.
Horban Brothers.
BTCUSD next move(waiting for break-out)(14-02-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (14-02-2025) (MID TERM)
Current price- 97,000
wait for the break-out
"if Price stay below 1,02,500 then next target is 95,000, 90,000 and above that that 1,05,000 .
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
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