#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. If we stay below 85000, we can have a two legged correction from here. Above 85000 I don’t see any reason to not print 100k.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls made the breakout early in the week and retested the ath 73805 but came short couple of points. It’s obviously the mother of all double tops here since the rejection is already deep enough, that there is a decent chance we won’t reach 73000 again.
comment : What a rally this is. On Thursday I wrote that we broke high enough to make 80000 a possibility and it happened on Sunday. I absolutely can’t this see going any higher as of now but I can also be totally wrong about that. I have no interest in buying this, whatsoever. I have also drawn my preferred path forward with a two legged correction where the B would reach 80000 and we got that part already. My next target is 72000/73000.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 70000 - 80000
bull case: Bulls outdid themselves with the 80000 print. I expect big profit taking to come around soon and late bulls will get burned. My bullish targets are met and I got nothing for the bulls above 80000.
Invalidation is below 70000.
bear case: Bears are stepping aside for now until the spike is done. 80000 is the perfect place to wait and see if profit taking starts and once it gets going, I expect big bears to sell aggressively. If bulls manage to keep this going above 85000 I am completely wrong with my read and this could actually melt to 100000. How do I come up with that target? Measured move from the current spike is about 95000 and that is close enough to 100k to make it. What a sight that would be…
Invalidation is above 85000.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish medium-long term. Short term we could retest 70000 or higher but if you can hold shorts with stop 75000, I think they can work.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68620 and now we are at 79329. Could not have been more wrong. Monday and Tuesday confirmed my read but Wednesday left no doubt about it being wrong.
short term: Neutral but if we stay below 85000, we could see the two legged move down as drawn. Could still just be a bull trap and we sell down hard again. That does not mean shorting this right now is a good idea. Bears need to show strength with consecutive bear bars before I think about joining them. Right now it is max bullishness.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : No current outlook until bears come around. Above 85000 this has potential to go for 100k.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bullish 5-wave series and potential two legged correction. If we print 85000, the current bull leg is probably a W1 of a new impulse which could lead to 100k.
