BITCOIN SELL TO $86,000 (UPDATE)Bitcoin sell TP1 smashed!✅
Less than 24hrs in & our first target has been met on BTC. More downside expected towards our TP2 at $86,000. Hope you all got in & profited from the live call yesterday!
BEARUSD trade ideas
BTC/USD - daily chart divergence showed the wayThe divergence was strong with this one.
Both the RSI and MACD showed huge Divergence from the Price.
Divergence is a very good way to try and prevent your buy trade from being someone else’s exit liquidity at the top.
It'll be interesting to see if those Liquidity Voids below get filled up.
Divergence:
Liquidity Voids:
Btc / UsdtBINANCE:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is facing resistance at the upper trendline of the rising wedge pattern, indicating potential bearish pressure. A clear breakout or breakdown is required to determine the next direction.
Are you ready to explore altcoins?
Disclaimer : Not Financial advice
Bitcoin: Hold now, buy laterHello,
Bitcoin is a clear uptrend as the price is above the moving averages, as the picture on the left side of the chart shows. Technical indicators like Ultimate Oscillator, ADX, MOM, and MACD are bullish. However, RSI indicators are overbought, which means Bitcoin might go higher, but there'll be a better time to buy when the market corrects the overbought conditions. I hold my Bitcoins, but I won't buy any more until the upcoming correction, which might come soon.
Regards,
Ely
Bitcoin's 486 days marathon after halving to reach the 150,000 !The Basics of Bitcoin's Analysis
As we approach the anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving on April 15th, 2024, the mining of Bitcoin’s 19,656,962nd coin is a testament to the network’s enduring strength, bringing the circulating supply to 90% of the total. The ‘rainbow chart’ remains a popular model for visualizing Bitcoin’s logarithmic growth and its cyclical price patterns.
The halving events, pivotal in Bitcoin’s economic model, systematically reduce the block reward, thereby constraining the new supply of Bitcoin. The current reward stands at 6.25 BTC per block, which will decrease to 3.125 BTC post the fourth halving. This deflationary mechanism has historically triggered bullish market sentiments as the reduced flow of new coins amplifies scarcity.
Analyzing the cycles between halvings, a clear pattern emerges: the initial 70,000 blocks post-halving often usher in a bullish phase, succeeded by a bearish phase up to the 140,000th block, and culminating in a sideways market until the next halving at the 210,000th block.
Bitcoin’s market dominance is also subject to cyclical fluctuations. Since 2016, its dominance has dipped below 40% during bearish phases and soared to around 70% during bullish periods, significantly influencing the broader cryptocurrency market.
The average drawdown observed between halvings is approximately 80%. Currently, in the sideways phase of the third cycle, projections based on the intersection of the 210,000th block and the lower logarithmic regression boundary suggest a valuation of $30,000 per Bitcoin. The forthcoming era could witness a peak of $150,000, with an 80% drawdown positioning the potential low at $55,000 during the bearish phase, commencing 486 days after the halving.
Where are we Today?
Recent market analyses align with these projections, indicating a minor retracement a month after the 2024 halving, followed by a significant rally to new heights. Analysts advise caution as the market nears the halving event, with some predicting a pre-halving sell-off. Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, with predictions of a new all-time high price in each 4-year period between Halving dates.
The only indicator to consider: The MVRV Ratio and Z-score
The MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell hot on the heals of the invention of the Realized Cap concept by the Coinmetrics team of Nic Carter and Antoine Le Calvez. Realized Cap is an alternative approach to Market Cap as a measure of network valuation. Rather than using the last traded price and multiplying by the coins in circulation as seen in Market Cap, Realized Cap approximates the value paid for all coins in existence by summing the market value of coins at the time they last moved on the blockchain. MVRV is simply the ratio comparing the two, i.e. MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap. It’s useful for getting a sense of when the exchange traded price is below “fair value” and is also quite useful for spotting market tops and bottoms (Source: Coinmetrics.com).
The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing the total bitcoin market value (MV) by its realized value (RV). Therefore, the metric represents the extent in which the current bitcoin market valuation is overextended beyond (values >1) or actually at a discount (values <1) compared to the holders’ aggregated cost base.
From the MVRV ratio we obtain the MVRV z-score, which first calculates the difference between the total bitcoin market value and its realized value, and then divides that by the standard deviation of the market valuation — a common statistical procedure called “standardization.” The MVRV z-scores, therefore, represent the number of standard deviations that each bitcoin market valuation is increased or decreased against its realized value (Remember z-score >1 means overextended and z-score <1 discount)
What do indicators say?
We are currently at the dusk of the 3rd halving era which occurred on May 11th 2020, more precisely the END of the sideways phase.
The MVRV ratio is at 2.24 giving sights of a Fair Value.
Historically, Values over '3.7' indicated price top and values below '1' indicated price bottom.(Source: CryptoQuant)
(It is crucial to note that these insights are for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and while historical data can provide guidance, it does not guarantee future performance).
Bitcoin - Broader Structure and The $32K Breakdown TargetLast time, I posted an idea about Bitcoin's shorter term structure. I was scaling into a short position, and ultimately decided to close when I noticed strong support continuing to hold. This ended up being a good move, since price pushed higher towards $108k. There's a lot of resistance here in the low $100K range. While a notable milestone, it's a hefty price. More and more, Bitcoin is being seen as a tool for exploitation and wealth concentration for the wealthy, rather than something for the masses. Although good for price, this is not in keeping with the original intention behind the technology, or so we are led to believe.
I tend to generally post short ideas now because I do not support buying Bitcoin, which serves only to enrichen a select few, and no longer benefits the little guy. Sure, it could benefit ME in the future, but that feeds further into greed and selfishness, which are the human flaws at the root of many market inequities, fallacies, and injustices. For more on why I changed my perspective on crypto, there are tons of ideas I've posted over the years to pull from. It essentially boils down to this: When I was young and naive, I believed crypto could be an escape from the established financial system. In many ways it is, if you like gambling on memes and adrenaline coursing through your veins. But on a broader level, it's been co-opted by the same forces that control our traditional markets, institutions, and to an extent, our wellbeing. More and more, crypto seems to fit into a neo-feudalist dystopia, rather than a free-flowing renaissance utopia.
Earlier this year, I closed my original short positions when it seemed likely for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all time high. Now that price has hit a major milestone, altcoins have gone up 500-1000%, and gloating is abounds, it's time for me to re-enter my short. Now, I'm not looking to profit massively from this. It's a small position. But, I am of the belief that there is a non-negligible probability that Bitcoin will enter a longer term bearish trend. Whether it's now or at $160k, who knows?
If this trendline can break decisively (it's held very well so far, even when price drops below), the next stop seems to be around $89k.
From there, a bounce would be bullish. My green arrow shows the possibility of rally resumption if that level holds as strong support. On the bearish side, the previous all-time high is the next major level, followed by $32k if the entire support structure falls apart.
Markets are starting to wake up and understand that inflation isn't going away quickly, and monetary policy won't be as easy as it was. A lot of fluff needs to get weeded out. Unfortunately, crypto doesn't have much SUBSTANCE to it (meaning goods, resources, and services) attached to it.
As always this is meant for speculation and entertainment only! Thanks for reading.
-Victor Cobra
bears in chargeCurrent Trend: The chart shows a recent downtrend, with the Bitcoin price falling from levels near $98,332 to around $95,000.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: $98,332 - This level has acted as resistance, where the price has unsuccessfully attempted to break out on several occasions.
Support 1: $97,729 - A support level where the price has bounced off.
Support 2: $96,167 - Another critical support level, where the price has also shown bounce.
Support 3: $95,002 - The lowest support visible on the chart, where the price has recently bounced off.
Descending Triangle: The chart shows a sideways triangle pattern, which is generally a trend continuation pattern.
Trading Strategy:
Entry at Support: If the price touches the support at $95,002. and shows signs of bouncing (possibly confirmed by an increase in volume or a bullish candlestick pattern), it could be a good entry point for a long position.
Breakout Entry: We expect the price to break the sideways triangle pattern to the downside, this could be a sell signal. An increase in volume at this point would reinforce the signal.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the highest resistance level at 98.332 to limit losses in case of an upward breakout.
Risk Management:
Risk/Reward Ratio: Make sure the potential reward is greater than the risk taken.
Confirmation: It is always advisable to wait for confirmation through other technical indicators or fundamental analysis before taking a position.
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 234The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BTC ABOUT TO DUMP?The daily time frame candle from yesterday provides a significant reversal indication. on the monthly and weekly there is also clear exhaustion being shown representing positions being liquidated.
The bears could potentially take over very soon for a bear market as we enter into 2025.
BTCUSDBlood on the streets stay woke Fam this may get messy bears are angry and will dump the assets to inflict all sorts of maximum pain.
Ending diagonalAn ending diagonal is in sight as depicted in the diagram. A steep decline should be expected in the coming days to the region of 85,000 USD. This region is 0.382 retracement of wave 3 as well as the starting point of wave v, beginning of the ending diagonal.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-18 : Gap Up LowerPay attention to the SPDR Sectors and how they appear to be moving downward (potentially rolling into a topping pattern).
I believe the US markets may roll into a topping pattern before the January inauguration. President Biden could throw a bunch of curveballs at the US before he ends his term.
I urge traders to stay agile and protect assets. We'll have lots of time to deploy our capital after the Inauguration event.
With only a week before Christmas, I urge everyone to start trading much smaller positions and prepare for a very light trading week through Christmas.
Remember, the markets typically begin to move more aggressively after January 7-10.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTC will Fly SoonBTC is currently exhibiting an upward trend, trading within a parallel channel characterized by inclined support and resistance levels. Notably, BTC has experienced three instances of reversal from support and three from Resistance levels. Presently, BTC is positioned at the support level and has initiated a reversal, indicating a directional bias towards the upside. Our recommended buy zone for BTC is between 96500_97500
With potential take Profit level at
T.P1= 100000
T.P2= 103000
T.P3= 105000
T.P4= 108000
Having stop loss= 94500
BTC down. Altcoin down!I see BTC falling. RENCO candlesticks confirm it ! The zone where bitcoin can fall $6-13k.
The system tends to equilibrium.
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely!
Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant.
I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop.
Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
BTC road in 96 000, the correction continuesBTC road in 96 000, the correction continues, the first target for Wolfe waves is 96t$ per BTC
BTC Analysis On H4 T.FBitcoin Price Analysis: A Selling Opportunity Amidst Market Volatility
The Bitcoin price has been moving within an upward parallel channel, characterized by inclined support and resistance lines. Notably, the trend has reversed three times from the support line and twice from the resistance line.
Currently, the trend is testing the resistance line, where we anticipate a reversal. Following this, we expect the price to move towards the support line.
(News Impact on Bitcoin Market)
The current market volatility, fueled by rising regulatory concerns, adoption rates, and global economic uncertainty, has created a favorable environment for a potential Bitcoin price drop. Recent news and events that may impact the Bitcoin market include:
1. Regulatory developments and their potential impact on Bitcoin's price.
2. Changes in adoption rates and their effect on market sentiment.
3. Global economic uncertainty and its influence on safe-haven assets.
Trade Setup:
Based on our technical analysis and news impact, we recommend opening sell positions in Bitcoin.
1. Entry: Sell Bitcoin at 106000-107500
2. Stop Loss: 109500 (above the resistance line)
3. Target Prices:
1. 104000 (T.P1)
2. 102000 (T.P2)
3. 100000 (T.P3)
4. 98000 (T.P4, final target near the support line)
This trade setup offers a potential profit of 8000 points, with a risk of 1500 points. We believe that the current market conditions and news impact make this an attractive selling opportunity for Bitcoin.
When Bears Gather: A Confluence of Warning Signs for BTCBitcoin’s current price action has led me to adopt a bearish short-term outlook, supported by several technical indicators and analysis methods. Here’s why I believe we’re at a critical turning point and entering a Wave 4 correction based on Elliott Wave Theory.
Stochastic RSI: Bearish Crossover
The Weekly Stochastic RSI has entered the overbought zone, and a bearish crossover has formed. Historically, this has been a reliable signal of a downside correction. I’ve highlighted previous instances where a bearish crossover in the overbought region led to significant price corrections, and we’re now seeing a similar setup.
A single indicator isn’t enough to make a strong prediction, but several additional factors strengthen the bearish outlook:
1.618 Fibonacci Extension: Bitcoins price price aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, often a key resistance point. Whilst it has broken support on the daily/weekly time frames it wouldn't surprise me if it retraces back to the 1.618 Fibonacci, creating a bearish candle where the 1.618 is now resistance by the close of December.
Loss of Momentum: Candlestick patterns and momentum indicators all show weakening momentum, including a hanging man candle on the weekly chart.
Daily and 4-Hour Stochastic RSI: Both timeframes have also turned bearish, signaling further downside.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Top of Wave 3
In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I discussed how we’ve likely reached the top of Wave 3, and are now entering a Wave 4 retracement.
If this is indeed Wave 4, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 70% of corrections retrace between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, which I have marked out above. Based on this range:
In 2021 Wave 4 corrected 31%. If we did a similar correction this would take us down to 0.618 Fibonacci level, conveniently near $71,859.67, which also serves as close proximity to the previous all-time high.
Final Thoughts
As traders, we can only work with the charts and data in front of us. My current bias remains bearish, and I’ll continue monitoring key levels and confluence points to adjust my outlook as needed.
BTC CYCLE EXPLAINED🔄 THE BITCOIN-ALTCOIN CYCLE EXPLAINED 🔄
In the crypto market, a well-known pattern plays out:
When Bitcoin rises 📈, altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana tend to struggle 📉.
When Bitcoin consolidates or corrects 📉, altcoins often rally 🚀.
Why does this happen?
1. 💪 Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin (BTC) leads the market, setting the tone for all crypto movements.
2. 🛡️ Risk-Off Sentiment: During Bitcoin’s bullish runs, traders shift funds into BTC as a safer option.
3. 🔄 Altcoin Rotation: When BTC slows, investors look to altcoins for higher returns, driving their prices up.
🚨 The Big Question: Are we on the verge of another altcoin season? 🤔
📊 Keep watching Bitcoin’s movement—it might be signaling the next big altcoin breakout.
🔥 Stay tuned, the cycle could be heating up! 🚀
Could btc be forming a top? Bitcoin's Potential Top: A Closer Look at the Rising Wedge
Bitcoin's recent price action has formed a technical pattern known as a "rising wedge." This pattern can signal either a continuation of the current trend or a potential reversal.
If Bitcoin breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge, it could indicate a significant price decline. However, if it breaks above the upper trendline, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
To make informed decisions, consider the following:
Volume: Decreasing volume within the wedge can suggest a loss of momentum.
Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment can contribute to a downward price movement.
Fundamental Factors: Regulatory developments and institutional adoption can influence the price.
Remember: Technical analysis is not perfect. It's essential to use it in conjunction with fundamental analysis and risk management strategies.
