Global Market Overview. Part 4: BITCOINPreliminary Context — See Above
Bitcoin: Euphoria, Fear, and a Foundation That Withstood It All
If we were to describe the mood of the crypto market over the past few months in a single phrase, it wouldn't be just a roller coaster — it’s been a full-blown thrill ride, driven by geopolitics, news hype, and emotional burnout among participants. Public sentiment toward Bitcoin this year has swung across the entire spectrum — from wild excitement and $200K price forecasts after Trump’s projected victory, to total pessimism with claims like: “That’s it, Bitcoin’s going back to $20K — crypto is a scam.”
And, as is so often the case, both camps were wrong.
The market survived — not on hype, but on fundamentals.
I make no secret of the fact that I remain a Bitcoin optimist. Not because I want to believe — but because when you mute the media noise, one thing remains: the strongest macroeconomic foundation the crypto market has ever had.
Let’s be honest: it’s getting harder and harder to find a solid reason why Bitcoin should collapse back to $50K — let alone $20K. Strip away the emotion, and here’s what we’re left with:
What do we have, in fact?
1. Regulators are no longer suffocating the market — they’re participating.
The SEC has dropped major investigations into crypto projects, including Ethereum and leading DeFi platforms.
The U.S. Senate has approved legislation to create a national crypto reserve — for now, it’s based on confiscated assets, but it marks the first precedent of crypto being recognized as part of state strategy.
Meanwhile, the European Union has officially launched the MiCA regulatory framework, making crypto a fully legal asset class in the EU with clear compliance norms, a tax model, and open access to institutional clients.
2. Institutions are playing big.
Crypto ETFs have launched not only in the U.S., but also in Europe. This means one thing:
Pension funds, insurance companies, and hedge funds are entering the market.
The capital is not speculative — it’s strategic.
These are not "hot" retail dollars chasing tweets — they’re building portfolios for the long haul.
3. Exchanges are drying up. Whales are accumulating.
Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges are at historic lows.
This tells us:
Long-term holders aren’t selling.
Large players are moving assets to cold wallets.
Retail hype hasn’t kicked in yet — which, frankly, makes it a perfect entry point.
When the crowd starts buying, it’ll be too late.
4. Even a trade war couldn’t break the market.
The tariff escalation between the U.S. and China has hit global trade hard, triggering corrections across traditional markets. Yet despite that:
Bitcoin held strong above $70K, rising from the $110 levels.
This zone has become ironclad support — a sign that the market has matured.
There’s panic in the headlines, but not in the charts.
Even Wall Street veterans are cautiously suggesting Bitcoin may be a necessary hedge against fiat devaluation.
5. China is silent — for now. But if that changes...
Any positive signal from Beijing — even a hint at easing restrictions or partial legalization of crypto ownership — would cause an immediate surge. Because:
Chinese capital is waiting.
The tech infrastructure is already in place.
And if the government gives the green light, the market will relaunch overnight.
What do I think?
The current Bitcoin price range is a prime entry zone for medium-term positions.
The 70K–85K range is a fundamental accumulation corridor, where:
Strong hands are already in.
Weak hands have been shaken out.
FOMO and retail hype haven’t even started.
By Fall 2025, even modest optimism in geopolitics or trade could push the market to new all-time highs — not on hype, but on dry institutional demand.
Final thoughts
I’m not a fan of conspiracy theories.
But this setup is too clean to be a coincidence.
The crypto market has survived it all: bans, lawsuits, regulatory crackdowns, exchange collapses, hacks, FTX, LUNA, and every form of digital black magic.
But it's still here.
More than that — it’s quietly becoming a legitimate part of the global financial system. Without noise. Without asking permission.
While everyone else is talking panic — the market is already in an accumulation phase.
And those who understand the cycles don’t look to the news for validation.
They look at the fundamentals — and act accordingly.
