Major correctionIf we close bellow this trendline by the end of the weekend, expect a strong correction to 72-65K.
Alts will drop 40-60% if that happens.
BEARUSD trade ideas
How i see the bullmarket part- i dont knowSo trouble it is...
I had two options about how it would go it seems it picked the bear one.
I believe at 50k there is a trendline to be respected and a huge liquidation zone.
I believe a downside to the 50k region is coming from where it will go into full bull mode.
Alts with drop alot also 30-50% more.
Bitcoin Overall: Not a time for Panic!As you can see from the monthly candles, it is commonplace for the middle of a move up to have a monthly 'doji' type candle as we will probably have here this month.
I think the probabilities are BTC closes the month similar to the other times in history, and then in January begins a nice monthly candle will be seen, just like before. There is a warning though--we are approaching the end of the bull market. According to Elliott Wave Theory there are only move waves in an impulse move like we are currently experiencing, and we are on wave 5/5!
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429.
However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.'
While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes.
In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded):
1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x
2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x
3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x
4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x
5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x
That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors:
624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease)
122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease)
22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease)
7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease)
The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916.
There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around:
On the bullish side:
It's 'different' this cycle
A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals
Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles
More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs
Currency debasement means more demand for BTC
The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow
The halving pattern is still playing out
Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest
On the bearish side:
The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction)
A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern
A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now.
There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers
The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021
The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble
Discussion
I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides.
On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April.
While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher.
On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern.
It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t .
However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar.
In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin.
This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve).
2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs.
Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k.
There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals.
Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy.
Conclusion
In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here.
There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently.
As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until
the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
BTC...Bitcoin trading lines....openness everywhereLeft is with Log enabled and the right is Without Log....
due diligence and realize sometimes levels are just doodles..
Technical Review - BTCThere are lots of confident predictions about where markets will head next. However, at its core, trading is about speculation and taking calculated risks—not about certainty. In this post, I'll share some technical trades in BTC from recent price action. While hindsight bias will naturally come into play, I did take several of these setups in real time.
Higher Timeframe Context (1-Month)
In terms of the higher timeframe context, there has been a clear uptrend with two distinct continuation setups (noticeable move up, followed by a contraction towards the mean price which then sets up for a continuation). At the current time there has been an attempt for a third move.
These could have been entered on the range expansion from the contractive state, however when prices become extended towards the outer boundaries we better be cautious due to risk of mean reversion. At such extremes, its better to scale out or look for better opportunities. These locations are often reached as measured moves (assumed average price volatility is sustained, as seen on the right side of the chart). This does not meant the move is over, but rather where the risk of mean reversion is increased, price can deviate from average volatility all the time.
This analysis is not a prediction of future behavior, but rather a review of recent events and how they could have been traded in technical terms. There is also a component of discretion, which occur in in real time, but is not relevant to asses at this point.
Before we take a trade we want to consider:
What is the current structure in play, is it a trend or a range?
Where is price located within that structure, are we at or near extremes?
In case above conditions are met, is there a setup or an entry trigger?
This all boils down to the search for imbalance.
Daily Timeframe: Range-Bound Trading Opportunities
In terms of my trading timeframe, which is the daily, BTC has spent the past months within a distinct range. When such a structure is in play, the locations of interest are at or near the extremes (upper and lower boundaries) where imbalances tend to occur.
Efficient trades at these extremes typically arise when there’s a failure test (also known as a failed breakout or 2B pattern). In these cases, price pushes outside the boundary, fails to follow through, and reverses back inside—often trapping participants and can fuel a move in the opposite direction.
This dynamic tend to hold until there is an actual breakout, there is no bulletproof way to know what will happened, but most of the time it can be helpful to reference the higher timeframe. For example, in case breakout happen in opposite to the trend we can treat them as potential failures, while with trend (as in this case with BTC to the upside) we can either treat them as breakouts or at least not fade the move. There are however exceptions and nuances to these type of plays.
On the chart, I’ve marked all failure tests where price moved back into the range and formed bullish continuation structures. These setups offered opportunities to enter and take profits. In my case, I typically targeted 1R trades on these setups, with some extending into full measured moves.
In conclusion, its probably a decent idea to have a structured framework to locate imbalance, but it must be combined with discretion so we can adapt to different conditions. Its not about confident predictions, but rather probabilities and calculated risks. Don't become attached to positions, let the cumulative effect drive results.
Bitcoin - from weekly overbought to daily oversoldmy MTF Cycle Trader indicator in action.
We have got BTC oversold on Daily this morning
$BTC Update-Extremely Bearish as Layered Support Fails to $92KAnother day...another updated BTC chart...🫣 Not Looking Good as layered support keeps failing.
*The Shorts clearly have control of the market the past week.
*Layered Bearish BTC news continues to add Fear into investors minds.
*2025 Economic Uncertainty also added to The Fear Index recently.
*We just bounced off The Critical Support Zone at $92K. A drop below this line would incite another major dip down to the Absolute Bottom Support Zone at GETTEX:87K
****Then if Absolute Bottom Support also fails to hold up we have no
Support until $76K*** 🥶
BTC - BitcoinWill bitcoin reach its peak at $125,000 and will it maintain its upward trajectory within the trend lines amidst much needed bear market?
BTC 200D SMA BLACK HOLE pull, 3rd consecutive week testing 93KThe epicenter of the black hole is the 200D SMA at 43k. Next major supports levels at 82k & 73K. What do you see ANON?
Bitcoin ready to retrace ?Hello All, As per me there are 2 retesting pending, I am expecting this retesting to be completed by Jan ... Lets hope for the best
Analysis of Bitcoin Against the Dollar.Hello investors and speculators who follow me.
Bitcoin has started a correction process from its last upward movement. Analyzing the Fibbonatti levels and the main support zones, I can see that the ideal buyback zone is in the range of 70 thousand dollars, because at this level there is a very strong support zone and it converges with the Fibo level of 618.
If the price reaches this zone, I would expect either a large flush in the price or a reversal of the downward trend on the smaller 4 and 1 hour charts.
Analysis of Bitcoin against the Dollar.
[BTC] Downtrend for Bitcoin's uptrend.
Bitcoin has supported 9 times in 2 months at 25ema, but this time it didn't.
The current downtrend is very strong, but there are several support bases including wave indicators at 90k-87k. This section (90k-87k) is a pretty good section, but since news and market trends are unpredictable, you should watch carefully and enter.
Uptrend Channel BreakdownWill this channel decisively break down? Or will it bounce?!
It's a stable uptrend channel... started the 12th of november...
Will it hold?
Take your positions; bulls or bears!
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CO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin continue going downHello crypto traders!
Yesterday I made an analysis, that made some profits for us!
1H and 4H trend is down. So, lets try to catch another successful trade setup here.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $97,000 mark, reflecting a slight pullback from recent highs. The price has recently broken the major ascending trendline, which had provided support for a prolonged period.
Now we expect price to pull back to this trend line (~99,400$ level, I have short limit order here), and continue downward momentum.
I suggest taking profits at 94,700$ mark, this level aligns with strong resistance and 1.618 Fib level.
Don't forget to place stop loss :)
Control your risk while doing trading!
BTCUSD - Rising Channel Breakout Be Confirmed?20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Dear Friends: (Away from charts)
It will be prudent to give your mind, body and soul a good rest, to recharge for the new upcoming exciting year!
How I see it:
If today can close outside the rising channel.
The breakout should be re-tested, and if successfully rejected,
a deeper correction is possible.
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
BTC - start LEGI think that with this situation, the drawn trend line and the price ceilings that are approaching each other, Bit is slowly approaching the end of its rise and Ethereum will become the market leader.
GOING TO $90Ksorry to say that price will fall to $90K
and this fact technical is very unpleasant
hope stop soon
YES!! awelawel Similar to the last two halvings, it will likely go parabolic around March 20, 2025.
It will dip a bit first, though.
gelijkaardig aan de 2 laatste halvings zal ie nu parabolisch gaan rond 20 maart 2025
eerst nog beetje zakken he
BTC Bear Flag ContinuationBTC has broken out of its upwards channel and is looking to make further downsides with a bear flag in play now it seems COINBASE:BTCUSD
BTC Broken the down trend??It kind of looks like it has broken this looong downtrend. Its broken the high that's made this latest low. Its weird like, $VIX is high some banks are crashing, this is going up. Keep an eye on this. $COIN, $TSLA, $ABNB. Look for it to stablize here then its either going to continually rise or reject it and go lower. Sure you can make gains and losses looking at 5min charts, this is more of a longterm view. See what it does here and put your cash in here if it takes the up direction.
