bruh... bitcoin is crazy :/this chart is almost like XAUUSD.
I say its definitely on the rise, but not looking for reversals until it touches this red line...
also, check out the 4 hr for possible support.
BEARUSD trade ideas
BTC UpdateI expect a retest of ATH maybe a new ATH @ 74,2k before crashing to 55-58k area then bullish trend will restart to test 89-90k area in 2025
Seeing a bullish pattern..Seeing a bullish pattern...let's take an entry with target 82000 and stop loss 75900..
Bitcoin Cycle Repeat? 1 Year Bull Run Above ATH Ahead!In the chart above, we’re comparing Bitcoin’s current cycle with its previous cycle.
Bear Run (1 Year): The previous cycle started with a significant bear market that lasted exactly 1 year, characterized by a sharp drop in price from the peak.
Recovery Phase (2 Years): Following the bear run, Bitcoin spent 2 years in a recovery and consolidation phase, gradually building a support base and regaining momentum.
Bull Run Above ATH (1 Year): After consolidation, Bitcoin entered a 1-year bull run that pushed it above the previous all-time high (ATH), setting new records.
Current Bitcoin Cycle: The current cycle appears to be mirroring the previous one closely:
We’ve had a 1-year bear run, which aligns with the pattern seen in the previous cycle.
This was followed by 2 years of recovery, with the price consolidating and gradually strengthening.
If the pattern continues, we could be entering 1 year of a bull run above the previous ATH, starting now or very soon.
Based on this repeating cycle pattern, the current setup suggests that we might have 1 year of a strong bull market ahead, potentially pushing Bitcoin above its previous all-time high by late 2025.
Regards
Hexa
BITCOIN Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 74,723.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 64,959 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Next Stop $81,847 - $90,528 - $103,000This is a simple Fib Daily chart analysis showing you the next price BTC
127.20% = $81,847
141.40% = $90,528
161.80% = $103,000
Some of you maybe see this is not going to happen, but I am telling you since Trump won the election, The BTC market will hit the $138,000 some day in the future, don't lose hope, and trade with patience, patience is the key.
THE WOLF on TradingView PIVOT POINTS; low and high which show to have a breakout above the blue MA. Simple strategy just like WAVE PHASE 2. Same pattern for phase 4.
I drew a $69K blue horizontal line which I don't see happening but in case it does. Here we know what to expect. for a later PULLBACK.
The phases I'm more concerned about, are the TSUNAMI WAVES.
Bitcoin could shock us- everything is in graphic as always.
- I have always been conservative about the next top.
- As trader i believe in trends.
- i always said : " more it takes time to go up, more higher we will go"
- be ready for the unexpected.
Happy Tr4Ding and Stay S4fe !
November 11 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisNovember 11 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis
Hello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
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Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
No Nasdaq indicators announced today
A small double top is in progress.
The adjustment is coming out for a long time
But I am not as scared as I thought.
What I need to watch out for now is a sweep or a double top.
There is no major reason for a decline yet, so I will follow the trend.
*When the red finger moves
Long position strategy
1. 81358.5 dollars long position entry section / cut loss price when the green support line is broken
2. 83322 dollars top section 1st target -> Good 2nd target
If the strategy is successful,
Additional long position autonomous section on the right side of the daily closing candle
Check if it breaks through the pink and orange resistance lines
The 2nd section at the bottom
is the final long position entry section under the condition that the pattern is maintained
If this section is broken
The low point on the weekly chart candle is broken
So it would be best to maintain it, right?
From bottom to 3rd is 1+4 section,
but this section is also the second touch,
so it is best to succeed in rebounding within section 2.
Up to this point, my analysis is just for reference
and I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price.
Thank you.
Detailed Breakdown and Analysis of BTC/USD 1D Chart 1. Wyckoff Phases and Structure:
Phase A: Marks the end of a downtrend with a Selling Climax (SC) followed by an Automatic Rally (AR). This suggests a shift toward accumulation.
Phase B: Accumulation or distribution phase with multiple sub-waves, featuring Secondary Tests (ST) and Show of Weakness (SOW). This phase shows market indecision.
Phase C: Potential Spring or final test before a breakout. The 72,000 resistance level acts as a critical boundary within the range.
2. Fibonacci Levels and Extensions:
1.236 extension near 91,292.60: This is a critical upper boundary, where wave 5 might face resistance.
1.618 and 1.786 extensions (78,271.82 and 80,940.70): Targets that could provide confirmation points for wave 3.
0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels (69,586.55 and 63,087.57): Support levels during possible wave 4 pullbacks.
3. Wave Counts and Elliott Wave Structure:
The Primary Wave Count shows the development of an impulse wave (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). BTC is currently in wave 3, with a potential pullback into wave 4.
Complex Corrections: Wave 2 and Wave 4 corrections are marked as shallow or complex, indicating variability in the depth of the corrections.
Wave 5 Projections: Wave 5 might extend to new highs with targets at 84,340.33 (1.618 extension) and 91,292.60 (1.236 extension), subject to volume confirmation.
4. Inducement and Confirmation Zones:
Inducement Points: Levels like 73,805.27 and 80,940.70 could attract traders, potentially setting up for pullbacks.
Confirmation Zones: If BTC stays above 78,271.82, this would confirm the continuation of wave 5 upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 52,500 acts as a key lower boundary.
Resistance: 72,665.73 represents significant overhead supply within the B/C distribution phase.
The current strong low is around 63,087.57, and a break below this level would invalidate the bullish structure.
6. Volume Divergence and Trend Indications:
Volume Divergence: Expected around 77,727.09, indicating potential exhaustion of buying momentum as prices approach upper resistance zones.
A potential Diagonal Wave 5 could signal a reversal or significant correction after it completes.
7. Projected Future Movements and Strategic Points:
Upside Targets: Key targets for wave 5 completion are between 84,340 and 91,292.
Wave 4 Retracement: Anticipated retracement zone between 69,586.55 (0.382) and 63,087.57 (0.618), offering potential entry points if the price respects these zones.
Wave Invalidations: A break below 63,087.57 would invalidate the current wave structure and could signal a deeper correction.
Summary:
The analysis combines Wyckoff accumulation/distribution with Elliott Wave and Fibonacci levels to map out BTC’s potential price path.
The structure suggests BTC may continue higher if it stays above key support zones, with upside targets around 84,000 to 91,000.
However, a break below 63,087.57 could invalidate the bullish wave count, leading to a bearish shift.
bitcoin weekly analysisBitcoin experienced a bullish surge this week, successfully breaking through the resistance level that has been forming since March 2024. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin has now reached the resistance of the channel up pattern, and a correction toward the channel up support at the 70,329 level is possible.
This analysis will be updated if new key levels are identified. Thank you.
BTC - Downside Targets for BuyingThis is a post dedicated to providing us with potential liquidity zones to watch to the downside.
Of course, BTC is extremely bullish as it had broken the previous ATH multiple times and is entering the next leg of the bull market based on 4 year cycle theory.
But in every bull market there are dips to flush out overleveraged longs. If we get a dip that cascades to the downside here are the potential "buy the dip" levels based on the chart. We are also about to tap the 1.618 level from our previous all time high to the low that was recently established.
This first level is $73,600-$73,800 (previous all time high). That old resistance should now act as new support.
The second level would be $72,600-$72,800 (rising wedge price target).This is a speculative scenario if we are in a potential rising wedge pattern. It was also the last low at the mouth of the pattern before the continuation higher.
The final level, in my opinion, would be the 0.618 of this new move which depending on the high will most likely sit somewhere between $70,300-$71,600. At this point in time it is hard to see any scenario where we dip below $70k again (until the next bear market).
Hopefully this provides good insight in case of a pullback!
Bitcoin 50% correction underway , Massive ending diagonal The rally from July to November was a corrective three-wave pattern (WXY), indicating a complex correction within a bull market. Don't get trapped—see you all at a minimum of 36k!
Bitcoin on the monthly Heikin-Ashi wowCycles repeat. In my opinion we're going much much higher. However, I've learned from last cycle. If your crypto is a large percent of your net worth practice DCAing out. I sold 1% of my crypto portfolio today to get myself in the mindset for the last leg of the cycle.
If this trend repeats we could be seeing 100k very soon. Slowly take profits along the way and utilize them or be ready to allocate for the next 4 year cycle low.
BITCOIN 5th Wave nearing the END drop to 48k min 32k into 2025 We are fast approaching the wave 5 of 5 it should be anywhere from 94k to 104 k . We should then see a new bear market phase into 2025 and a low mid oct 2025 down into 32 k on the low end most declines have been 75 to 786 % so I would look at the 50 % to .618 drop the rally phase from 15900 to what ever peak be it 94 up too 104 But this and ALL Assets are now setting up for the deflation . See data 1980 to 1982 Best of trades THE WAVETIMER !
THE LEGEND: CANDLE SKEW ART TRADING “Every 5 candles reveal a directional shift—either up or down. The red skew label, starting at ‘1,’ marked the initial phases 1 and 2 wave crashes. My candle skew model projected a 5-candle downtrend starting from that first label. Observe how each downtrend phase aligned with significant price drops.
On the upside, each green skew signals a 5-candle uptrend, starting from the green label. The latest green sequence shows a powerful 5-candle rally, set to close on July 24, 2025. Notice the most recent green skew label with a long lower wick—a bullish signal and clear sign of rising momentum. There’s no red skew in sight, and with 1 day and 8 hours left, the next bullish candle is primed to bring a massive price wave.
If a skew color misaligns, it’s a reminder that no single signal operates alone. Price action, among other codes, is crucial for confirming trends. Each candle’s context must be meticulously analyzed to get the full picture. What I’m showing here isn’t just the details—it’s a view of the larger market forces at work, pointing to what lies ahead.”
why did bitcoin hit on the gasSimple btc is directly correlated with the stock market 'the S&P 500'.
also, It has zero cash flow and it fails to meet the essential functions of a currency:
1. A means of exchange : It is innately deflationary, causing people to hold onto it rather than spend it, expecting its value to rise.
2. A store of value : Its extreme volatility fluctuating by 20% to 30% renders it an unreliable option for storing value.
3. A unit of account : We rely on central bank currencies to measure the value of goods and services, not Bitcoin. It simply does not work as a unit of account.
The price of BITCOIN is entering price discoveryBitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high, reaching $80,000 this weekend, signalling entry into a parabolic phase characterized by price discovery. While setting nominal price records, BTC's fully diluted market capitalization remains below its historical peak of $1.58 trillion. Based on current market dynamics and adoption trends, we project Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, with potential upside to $180,000 by April 2025.
Bitcoin Ascending Wedge Signals CautionBitcoin is currently within an ascending wedge pattern. This pattern, indicated by converging trend lines that form higher highs and higher lows, often signals a potential trend reversal , especially if momentum appears to be weakening. This is a notable caution for bullish continuation, as ascending wedges are frequently bearish reversal patterns when observed after a strong upward movement.
The price action here shows Bitcoin moving close to the lower boundary of the wedge, suggesting it is testing support within this structure. While it remains above both the green 50 EMA and red moving averages 200 EMA, which provides a general bullish bias, a break below the wedge could shift this bias and trigger a deeper correction.
The RSI indicator reinforces the cautious outlook, showing a clear bearish divergence . As the price has continued to rise, the RSI has been trending lower, forming a downward slope. This divergence indicates that while price is moving up, the momentum behind this rise is weakening, and buyers may be losing control. The RSI currently sits around the 50 level, which is a neutral zone, but with the recent downward direction, it could dip further, supporting a bearish scenario.
In terms of support and resistance, the immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the wedge and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around $74,828. If the price breaks below this level, additional support can be found at the 0.382 level around $73,291 and the critical psychological support near $72,843. Resistance is found near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at around $77,312, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the wedge, marking a significant resistance point.
For possible scenarios, in a bullish continuation, Bitcoin could hold the lower boundary of the wedge and maintain its position above the moving averages. In this scenario, the price may attempt to move back toward the upper boundary of the wedge and potentially test the $77,312 resistance level if momentum picks up.
In the bearish scenario, if Bitcoin breaks below the wedge’s lower boundary and the 0.236 Fibonacci level, this could signal a bearish reversal. In that case, I would expect a possible pullback to $73,291 or even down to $72,843 for a stronger support test. This breakdown would align with the bearish divergence on the RSI and could lead to further consolidation or correction before another bullish attempt.
Given the ascending wedge pattern and the bearish divergence on the RSI, my position leans cautiously bearish in the short term, with a likelihood of a pullback if the lower boundary of the wedge doesn’t hold. However, if buyers manage to defend this level and RSI recovers, we could see an upward push toward $77,312 as the next target.
TSUNAMI PHASE 1 (BEACH TIME) Price over $80KPhase 1 (Beach time): While some of the retail traders are having a blast around the globe due to BITCOIN BEARISHNESS, it's time to hit the beach shore for a blast time.
Phase: 2 (EARTHQUAKE): many will wonder!
Phase: 3 (TSUNAMI WAVE): all will panic
1Mo timeframe shows PIVOT HIGH is next. Follow the pattern with cold hard facts. This isn't a failed rally because there is no indication here BITCOIN is headed to destruction, in fact, it's accompanied by a BULLISH HARAMI pattern. Once BITCOIN reaches PIVOT HIGH then comes the BOS.
THE ROCKET IS READY. It's waiting for BITCOIN to break resistance to start the rocket steam for liftoff.
My TRUE RANGE CANDLE INDICATOR is fully weighed by volume and so much more. It puts RSI out of business.
My reversal strategy works in a way to figure out a reversal based on MA's and PIVOT ZONES. It's been coded correctly for guidance which will not speculate but uses price action with a designed strategy
Please comment and like; thank you
BTCUSD BEARISH CORRECTION BTC is clearly in a bullish trend. However, market structure indicates a bearish break of structure on the H4.
I now anticipate a bearish correction towards the discount zone and possibly sweep the Equal Lows where there is Internal Range Liquidity.
The Daily Chart - Bitcoin - Definite pullback occurring now
BTCUSD is conducting a retrace, at most back to 70,000, the big white inefficient candle needs to be revisited and given some 'love', I note that the daily RSI and MACD are showing bearish momentum for the next little while.
Anyway, who would be game to Short Crypto at the moment. Now is a chance on some of them, which are pulling back with Bitcoin, but this is temporary overbought stuff.
[Education] You Are Dumb For Not Using A Stop LossThe Illusion of the “Perfect Routine” and Trading Psychology
I always thought that if I did the million-dollar morning routine, take ice bath, meditate, and practice mindfulness, my trading psychology will be fixed.
Whenever I see price is moving in my favour, I shifted my stop loss to secure profits. It’s fine right? It’s never wrong to secure real profits rather than letting it be an unrealized gain. I see the price took me out as my stop loss is too tight. The price went higher and higher without me. If only I had followed my trading plan which is to do nothing until price has shown bullish impulse.
When I see that price made an impulsive move in my favour, I will wait a little while longer to secure my profits. I know my trading plan is telling me to close the position now. But let’s see if we can milk some more profits from the market. As the dipped, I promise to close my position at my original take profit price. Price continued to dip and take me out at breakeven.
Whenever I see price is approaching my stop loss, I extended my stop loss and pray hard that price will not take my position out. It’s fine right? As long as I close it at breakeven when price comes back. I waited and waited, and watched the price goes lower and lower, with my unrealized loss getting bigger and bigger. From a originally planned $100 loss, it became a $1,200 loss. It was supposed to be a 1% loss, but it turns out to be a 12% loss on my $10,000 account.
“There must be something wrong with my trading psychology.” I thought to myself. So off I went to YouTube, X, Tiktok and Instagram to look at psychology posts and videos. I gave myself mental pleasure by ensuring that I will follow my system. Then the cycle repeat itself.
Core Trading Problems That Sabotage Your Success
There are a few problems that we face as a trader.
Greed, the innate emotion that all of us have. When I waited for a while to close my position, I have already secured a hefty profit which will be realized if I followed my trading plan. However, due to greed and thinking that this trade will be the homerun trade, I let greed took over my thinking. Eventually I ended up with nothing, forgoing all my profits because I think that price will continue going in my favour.
Fear, another innate emotion that haunts all of us. Trading live means we do not know what price will do in the future. Our next trade can be a big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, or a normal loss. If you took a big loss, then you have a position sizing issue. We fear that if this is really the homerun trade, and if you followed your trading plan, you will miss out on the potential 10% extra profits. But think again, how often do this kind of runs happen?
Failure to understand these problems will have a lot of consequences to your trading career. Even with a solid trading strategy with a positive expected value, you will not actualize these results you got from your backtest. You can have an average expected return of 4% per trade, but if you don’t follow your trading system, your results will be randomized. This will make you go in a loop like this: “Backtest a new trading strategy -> Got hopeful results -> Trade live -> Don’t follow trading plan -> Watch even more trading psychology videos -> Switch to a new strategy”. The cycle will continue and you will waste precious money and time.
You want to achieve financial freedom and success through trading, right? Why would you want to waste precious money and time doing the same thing over and over again?
Why a Backtested Strategy Can Make or Break Your Trading
Yes it takes discipline to follow your trading system. But do you know what else is needed? A solid fool-proof backtest result. Have a set of backtested data ready. Have that set of data be so good that you will look like a fool for not following that trading system. If the trading system can make you 100% profits consistently every month, will you not follow your trading rules? I’m exaggerating here of course, it’s hard to achieve 100% profits consistently every month. But I’m showing you how it’s dumb of you not to follow your trading rules if it has already proven you will be profitable just by executing your trading strategy and following your trading rules. By having the set of backtested data, you are also able to estimate how your drawdown curve will look like. If it shows you on average you will experience a 6% drawdown, then if you’re at 3% drawdown, why would you be afraid of taking trades?
If you’ve been following me on my journey, you would have seen my progression. I’ve manage to break free of my unprofitable self to a consistent profitable trader now. How? Just by having a solid trading strategy with more than 1000 backtested data points. It’s simple, but not easy. Do you even keep a record of your backtested data? Do you know your average drawdown %? Probably not. I have an excel sheet made just for recording your backtested data.
Remember, trading is not easy, but the process is simple. Stay consistent and trade safe.
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