BEARUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin's Ugly WeekKey Observations:
Recent Price Action:
Last week’s candle was a large bearish engulfing candle, marking a significant rejection and pullback from the $108,000 zone.
Bitcoin has broken below the $99,860 support, which had previously acted as a key level during the rally. This level is now likely to serve as resistance.
Current price sits near $95,905, attempting to stabilize after the sharp sell-off.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI on the weekly timeframe is trending downward after reaching overbought levels (~80).
The RSI is currently sitting near 67, which is still bullish but indicates weakening momentum.
This decline in RSI aligns with the pullback in price, signaling a potential cooling-off period for Bitcoin's uptrend.
Volume:
Last week’s bearish candle was accompanied by high volume, confirming strong selling pressure.
This suggests that the pullback is not just a minor correction but a significant event that traders are actively responding to.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
$89,000–$90,000: Key area and a psychological level where buyers might step in.
$73,835: Major breakout level from earlier in 2024, which remains a critical support zone in the event of further downside.
Resistance:
$99,860: Previously strong support, now flipped to resistance.
$108,000: Recent high and upper boundary for potential future attempts to reclaim bullish momentum.
Trend Structure:
The weekly structure remains bullish overall, with higher highs and higher lows intact.
However, the break below $99,860 signals a potential shift to short-term bearish momentum.
Key Considerations:
Last Week’s Candle:
The large bearish engulfing candle signals significant selling pressure at higher levels.
This type of candle often precedes further downside or at least a period of consolidation, especially when confirmed by strong volume.
Bearish Momentum:
The break below $99,860 combined with RSI dropping from overbought territory suggests a cooling-off phase in the uptrend.
Further downside to $89,000–$90,000 is likely before buyers step in to defend.
Long-Term Bullish Case:
Despite the short-term pullback, the macro trend remains bullish, with price still well above the 50-week SMA and prior breakout levels.
A retest of $89,000–$90,000 or even $73,835 would still align with a healthy correction in a long-term uptrend.
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a significant pullback after a sharp rally, with RSI and volume confirming short-term bearish momentum. Immediate support lies at $89,000–$90,000, while $99,860 acts as key resistance. The broader trend remains bullish, but this correction could deepen before resuming the uptrend.
BTCUSD Revision 22 December 2024Hello Nation!
Let’s see what BTC did. We open today at 96537 area. It did made a huge gap breaking a Resistance level. The same Level became a Support. As multiple rejections can be seen. To me that a good hint for a buy entry. I marked out my m15 Box and that will be my point of interest for a buy entry.
With 30 Pips SL risk and 100 Pips TP. It will be a nice winner. I did took this entry but i secured at 94 Pips. My risk was smaller than 30pips as i make them precise on m1 or m5.
Price went up straight to a Daily SBR area. Once i spotted Price was breaking a support on the H1, this information is key to me. I marked the Support that broke and that same area is now Resistance. A point of interest which i will monitor.
Again, I drew out my m15 box after the identifying Support and Resistance in that area. Upon seeing multiple bearish reactions. I was confident price will be making a move down. I took a sell entry.
This time i targeted the H1 low which give me a bit more than 100 pips. I secured this entry at 138 Pips. Knowing that there was gap during market open. I could have attempted to target much lower. But i am happy with what i got. It was a very good day for me.
BTC is just bouncing off its supply and demand. As you know, I don’t make predictions on my post. I will only try to share what story that i see after the candles happen.
Thank you for Reading. Good Bye!
Bitcoin: New Profit Objectives Greater Risk.Bitcoin is poised to push the 104K high after breaking the previous inside bar (buy signal). While this is exciting and a newsworthy event for the casual observer, it is important to recognize some potential turning points from here. While there is no precision to this, it does offer a way to measure profit objectives and compare them to the growing RISK. Once again I will emphasize that swing trades and day trades are the most effective way to contain the large magnitude of RISK that is often overlooked by many.
The blue arrow on the chart points to the 104K all time high. The thing to avoid here is shorting it with the thinking that it will "double top" ect. At this time there are no signs of weakness. The outside bar that developed a week ago has been bought up, along with any minor pullback thereafter. With the trend structure clearly in place, shorts still pose a high risk, especially on swing trade time frames. There are situations where risk on both sides of the market can be high and these are usually good times to be small or be out.
As far as profit objectives: measuring Wave 1 and projecting from the Wave 2 bottom, I see inflection points in the 105K and 113K areas (see horizontal lines). We can use these to anticipate selling activity and prepare to lock in profits, etc. Can price can further? ANYTHING is possible, but as I will ALWAYS say at highs, the probability is lower. The fact that we are in the vicinity of a Wave 5 of 5 of a broader 3 is what clues me into the limited potential.
The initial retrace from the current high (see illustration) or these anticipated profit objectives will serve as a short term buying opportunity (swing trade). As of now, UNTIL the 90K support is broken, I would not be bearish. Look for supports to hold and confirmations to buy on smaller time frames.
It is important to REALIZE that markets move in CYCLES. At some point this bullish cycle will complete and the next corrective cycle will begin. It may be hard to believe at the present time because news and general sentiment is continuously bullish. What will catch most people off guard is when the next cycle begins, it will seem like a normal pullback only this time will it not be followed by new highs. This is when the typical trader/investor gets married to the market because they refuse to adjust to the changing structure. And like over half of the marriages today, it will be costly.
For me, the 90K break will confirm that the broader corrective cycle is in play.
Thank toy for considering my analysis and perspective.
Market Correction: Key Support Levels and Strategic OpportunitieThe market has experienced a decline over the past few days, leading to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and the introduction of new liquidity.
This may represent a healthy correction within the context of the broader market trend, which remains firmly upward.
As such, the optimal strategy continues to be to buy on dips.
Key levels to monitor include the strong support area around 84,500, with additional support at the 73,000 level.
While these support levels may not be reached, it is wise to stay alert for potential buying opportunities if the market approaches them.
Take care!
BTCUSD - Missed TP ? that's okay history says 140KI followed too blindly this fractal that went almost perfect but was waiting 120k to take partial profits and missed a 30% opportunity,
I'll know take profits more often by moving from risky alts to BTC or other assets resistant to drawdown
the middle line of the channel BTC is evolving seems to support very well and I'm gonna assume the correction is already over, you can still expect to see another dip to 86k tho (but I dont believe this)
my simple trade idea : green is path of 4 years ago, blue is path of last year
first TP will be at 120k & 144K see you in 3 weeks
not financial advice
cheers
“Whispers of Dominance" The Tale of Dominance and the Rise of Alt Season
In the grand arena of the crypto markets, where titans clash and fortunes are forged, the charts whisper secrets to those who listen. This story is etched in the movements of Bitcoin and the altcoin dominance chart, known as OTHERS.D. Together, they dance in a delicate rhythm of power, signaling the coming tides for those who can decode them.
Act I: The Prelude to Power
On January 1, 2021, the market set the stage. The dominance of altcoins began to surge, rising steadily for 2 bars (28 days) with a staggering volume of 19.03T. At the same time, Bitcoin, the king of crypto, began to form a bull flag, a sign of hesitation. The altcoins faltered briefly, caught in the shadow of Bitcoin’s indecision.
But the winds were shifting.
Act II: The Divergence of Titans
As the market surged toward April 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached its All-Time High (ATH), a peak of glory marked by the first white vertical line. Yet, in this moment of triumph, a subtle change occurred: Bitcoin began to waver. And as the king faltered, OTHERS.D — the collective might of altcoins — gathered strength.
By July 16, 2021, after 5 bars (57 days) and a volume of 15.64T, dominance peaked again. The altcoin army was on the rise, even as Bitcoin’s price descended. The stage was set for a shift of power.
Act III: The Wisdom of the RSI Scanner
Amidst the chaos, the RSI Scanner — with its two white bands and the orange wave — became the oracle. It foretold a truth known only to the wise:
“Alt Season begins when altcoin dominance breaks above the upper RSI Scanner band.”
This is the moment of ascendance — when altcoins shatter their shackles and surge forward, leaving Bitcoin in their wake.
Act IV: The Prophecy of March 11, 2024
Fast forward to March 11, 2024. The market holds its breath as the charts reveal a pattern: 13 bars (182 days) of synchronized movement between Bitcoin and altcoins. A volume of 32.14T pulses through the veins of the market.
The white vertical lines remind us of Bitcoin’s past glories — the ATHs of April 9, 2021, and November 5, 2021. After each of these peaks, OTHERS.D continued to rise, signaling the quiet but determined march of altcoins.
Now, the question looms:
Will altcoins rise once more above the RSI Scanner’s upper band? Will Alt Season be unleashed upon the markets?
The Pending New Era
A smiley face marks the hope of a Pending New ATH for Bitcoin — a beacon of optimism in this tale of dominance and divergence. But wise traders know: the real drama lies in the hands of the altcoins.
Their time is near. The charts have spoken. The stage is set.
This was just a glimpse. Tomorrow, I begin to unravel the full depths of liquidity for OTHERS.D.
Traders, the Bull Run for Alts has not even started.
Or for a more intense delivery:
Today was merely a taste. Tomorrow, I’ll unveil the true extent of liquidity flowing through OTHERS.D.
Traders, the Bull Run for Alts has yet to ignite.
Here is your OTHERS.D chart, paired perfectly for comparison with Bitcoin.
Or, with a bit more emphasis:
Here is your OTHERS.D chart, designed to pair seamlessly for comparison and deeper insight with Bitcoin.
Market Shifts To Risk-Off: Correction For Bitcoin To 85-90k.We are seeing significant flows since the Fed delivered a hawkish cut yesterday, with stocks turning sharply to the downside while the US dollar continues its recovery above 108. Another reason for this end-of-year shift could also be profit-taking, given the substantial gains in risk assets throughout the year, so traders see this as reason to exit, since FED expect less cuts next year.
This shift into the US dollar and out of the stock market is also impacting cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has turned perfectly downward from 108, which we tracked as an important resistance level in wave five of an extended wave three. Now that price turned down and broken the channel support line, it looks like an A-B-C correction is underway, likely targeting even lower levels.
The key support zone for the current corrective fourth wave should be around the 84000–90000 area. This zone could provide the foundation for a potential new bullish resumption, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Broke through that zone will put bulls in some real trouble.
Grega
BTCUSD: The phenomenal Fib power of +.618.Bitcoin quickly turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.454, MACD = 3285.300, ADX = 32.138) as in a matter of 24 hours it dropped from its 108,000 ATH back to below 100,000. As the price continues to grow, we should start getting used to those 10k violent price swings. Today though, we want to discuss an incredible finding, which we call ' the Fib power of 0.618'. It is this amazing pattern you see where Bitcoin, since its Nov 2022 bottom and subsequent Jan 2023 High, it has systematically targeted every +0.618 Fibonacci extension before pulling back.
1st TP was Fib 1.618, 2nd TP = Fib 2.168, 3rd TP = Fib 3.618. Natually this sequence targets next: 4th TP = Fib 4.618 (112,500), 5th TP = Fib 5.618 (173,500) and finally 6th TP = Fib 6.618 (265,000). Of course this assumes that the trend will follow the same fluid pattern, where the first of the Fib pairs has only a short consolidation (green Rectangle) leading to a fast rise to the second Fib, which has a long consolidation (blue Rectangle). This implies that we're currently inside a short consolidation an in April we should hit 112,500 (5th TP on Fib 5.618).
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"The Target Matrix"Traders, new targets are in sight! Bear in mind, I’ll be constantly evaluating to ensure these targets are hit. With deeper research into smart money’s potential next moves, I’m now comparing these targets using more advanced market dynamics. The market may appear ready to collapse, but I’m not letting go that easily. A big wave is coming — I can’t say exactly when, but it’s on the horizon.
Will I cancel this idea before the targets are reached? Absolutely, without hesitation. Markets evolve by the hour, and one thing we must learn is that Technical Analysis updates constantly. But I’m not justifying myself with that; my confidence comes from the precision of ATR volatility, enhanced whale movement analysis, and several other robust methodologies.
Current Trade Setup:
• Using an ATR with RSI scanner, my long position has a stop loss at $87,840 and a profit target at $113,329.
• Additionally, I’ve identified two key ATR levels and will soon provide short positions to outline potential downside targets if a downtrend emerges.
• As for the $80K zone — that’s the least of my concern, as there’s no meaningful signal pointing to that level.
Strategy Insights:
My zig-zag strategy is in play, reinforced with Fibonacci calculations, high and low labels, and whale enhancements. As prices move, I’ll compare these levels and issue bullish printouts when signals show pending opportunities. Two smart money contractions and true value lines are mapped out, indicating where prices are likely to drop. When a descent begins, I’ll measure a short position ATR to ensure the downturn doesn’t catch you off guard.
And for the Alts:
Good news is on the way. Stay tuned and be ready.
Urgent btc crash/ correction incoming BTC is oversold I believe that we are going to test support at 103,000,then have a ABC correction in the short term. I am still bullish in the long term.
BTC Selloff Reversal. Uptrend ContinuesBTC selloff after Powell's comments Wednesday took us down to the 50 day MA. A correction I've been anticipating. This occurred multiple times on the way up last cycle. The selloff produced a descending broadening wedge on the way down. This often leads to a reversal and that's what I'm predicting and starting to see unfold. My target is 102.3 but i'll be moving SL up as I go.
BTC - Pullback to 100k - Bullish divergenceAfter a sharp drop, it seems a head and shoulder pattern is forming. Seems there is bullish divergence on the MACD as well. Will we pull back to 100k tonight?
continued retracement to the downside4HR TF: Immediate resistence tested and failed to break above.20EMA acted as second Resistence. BTC is likely not ready yet for rally to the upside.
BTCUSD 4H TFWill be looking for possible longs on BTCUSD due to the strength of the demand area found at the zone. once price action confirm will pull the trigger at 91800
BTC - Weekend pump back to 105?To me this seems like a reversal pattern is forming and being verified. Bullish divergence and bullish continuation on MACD. BTC also broke the downtrend it has had the recent days, and inflation news on yesterdays friday indicates things aren't so bad after all.
BTC/USD Showing Signs of Wycokoff Accumulation on 15min chart.BTC is starting to show the signs of a Wycokoff Accumulation pattern on the 15 min chart. I think it is too early to use it to make a trade as the general market sentiment is unknown when New York trading opens up on Monday. If the S&P 500 and other exchanges open down on Monday I would not expect this pattern to continue and BTC could move down further.
If you look at other Alt coins such as ETH and LTC you will see a similar pattern but the S&P 500 chart look poised to open down on Monday so I am personally not trading any of these patterns until more information comes it.
Trading carefully. End of year trading is always a wild card.
my vision of price movement for btcUntil new fuel for growth appears, this pattern should be quite likely
30minutes | Bitcoin | Analysis | 26/12/2024Asalam.o.alaikum (Hi) Community,
Hope you are fine and doing all of your great, so about yesterday analysis, we're measuring it's outcome today as we have ranging break because of Christmas, so we'll skip that move. So today we have seen only one IFC that run the recovery move. For now we have the following key levels:
Bullish
Simply, an IFC again required for corrective move, breaking up the Hammer at the Minor Character Changing level. Otherwise market continue bearish structure.
Bearish
Market is overall bearish as i told you yesterday, so volume is required for the bearish players. Exactly, volume can came from the bulls, so that's why bear welcoming bull to capture and hunt him, I mean trapping the bull's, sweeping SL's and show the powers.
I hope you understood my views about the market. Let's measure the upcoming move together.
Cheers,
Thanks!
Intikhab Gillani MOCHH
Analyst (Ultra Securities & Hedge Funds PvT Limited Pakistan)
26/12/2024
Analysis BTC/USD 1H Analysis
1. Key Resistance Zone: The resistance zone lies between $98,300 and $100,000. Price action in this zone indicates strong selling pressure, making it a critical level for bullish continuation.
2. Support Zone: A significant support zone is identified near $92,000. This level could serve as a potential rebound area if the price experiences a downward movement.
3. Trend Outlook:
The current price structure suggests a potential rejection from the resistance zone.
A descending trendline indicates a bearish sentiment, with the next likely target being the $96,000 level and potentially further down towards the $92,000 support.
Trading Strategy:
Short Position: Consider entering a short position if price confirms a rejection from the resistance zone with appropriate stop-loss above $100,000.
Long Position: If price breaks and consolidates above the $100,000 level, it could indicate a bullish breakout. In that case, look for opportunities to go long.
Bitcoin's Rally Loses Steam: A Reversal Pattern Takes Shape● Bitcoin reached a record high of approximately $108,390, driven by strong bullish momentum.
● However, the rally was short-lived as intense selling pressure kicked in, triggering a rapid decline to $92,500 and erasing some of the recent gains.
● The frequent price fluctuations are likely to form a Head & Shoulder pattern, a bearish pattern that indicates a potential trend reversal and further downside.
● A sharp decline is expected if Bitcoin breaches below $91,500.
BTC Update And my thoughts on this Bearish attempt. Pure chart analysis with adding news and events. chart analysis alone by locating liquidity zones and seeing reactions with adding High time frames reactions on these liquidity zones we can see a bearish attempt being forced on BTC although so much positivity is thrown everyday now. could it be the dumb can happen while masking it away as much as possible by pumping positive things about BTC and crypto in general so the pain isn't harsh and be seen and received as an opportunity for The Big Investors who couldn't before invest and recently been granted access to do so, enter at a better price. Only time can tell. But I do see it being forced by now. it'll some how catch a resistance here break supports to create this soft collapse which will end up being a major 30-40% correction and then never find itself back there ever again. finding new solid support at 110K and above after correction. Apply same thesis on alt coins and you'll have a major correction to never have to come back ever again and allowing investors to just buy at the lowest point once more. This can be a massive positive push to create wealthier people at a fast pace success rate to achieve something grater in the capital world. fiat world and now crypto era..
