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SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis: Current Price Action: SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week. Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside. Key Levels: Bearish Line: $214.18 Target Price 1: $199.15 Target Price 2: $172.35 Target Price 3: $155.65 Target Price 4: $136.10 Support Zones: Immediate support is expected around $199.15. Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10. Resistance Levels: Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum. Volume: Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure. Conclusion: SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by shkspr
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 235 Covered Call... for a 230.52 debit. Comments: Mostly in this to attempt to grab the annual divvy ... . Last year, it was 1.04/share, but it has been widely variant from year to year (e.g., 2.40 in 2022; 1.57 in 2021; 1.50 in 2020). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 230.52/Share Max Profit: 4.48 ROC at Max: 1.94% 50% Max: 2.24 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but may take profit early if the dividend turns out to be non-chump change.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 130/225 Short Put Vertical... for a 3.40 credit. Comments: Adding to my SMH position on weakness, but using a setup with a lower buying power effect (BPE). Here, I'm selling the 25 delta put and buying the put that is at a strike that is approximately one half the value of the short put strike to bring in the buying power effect by about half over going with a naked short put. The standalone 225 would cost about 221.54 to put on versus the 91.60 in buying power for this trade, with a resulting bump in ROC as a function of BPE. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 91.60 Break Even: 221.60/share Max Profit: 3.40 ROC at Max: 3.71% (versus 1.53% for the naked) 50% Max: 1.70 ROC at 50% Max: 1.86% (versus .77% for the naked) Naturally, the warts on this setup is that I remain subject to assignment risk at the 225 strike, so need to keep that in mind as I put on trades, since BP will have to be free in order to accept assignment of a one lot at 225.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Red Flag in Tech: SMH vs. QQQ Breakdown Signals Potential Introduction: Despite the bullish seasonality currently supporting the market, a concerning signal is emerging from a key driver of this stock market rally: the ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ . This ratio serves as a critical gauge of tech sector health, as the major tech and AI players fueling this bull market rely heavily on semiconductor innovation. Analysis: Tech Sector Health: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has historically been a strong indicator of tech sector momentum. When semiconductors outperform, it signals strength and optimism in the broader tech sector. Conversely, underperformance by chip stocks raises concerns about the sustainability of tech-driven rallies. Emerging Concern: Currently, this ratio appears to be breaking down from a rounding top formation—a bearish signal. If this trend persists, it could lead to increased market volatility, potentially as early as year-end or into early 2025. Market Implications: For the bull market to maintain its momentum, this ratio needs to reverse course soon. Semiconductors are not just another tech subsector—they are foundational to the AI and big tech themes driving this rally. A continued breakdown could dampen market sentiment, impacting broader indices. Conclusion: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is flashing a warning signal, with a potential breakdown that could lead to increased volatility in the near term. However, chip stocks still have time to recover and restore market confidence. This ratio will be a crucial indicator to watch as we approach the end of the year. Will chip stocks regain their footing, or are we headed for a turbulent 2025? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio, the rounding top formation, and support and resistance levels) Tags: #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official
Short Semiconductors on Falling DemandThe semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH is currently trading at an all time high because of the belief that there will be increased demand for semiconductors arising from the applications of generative AI. However, on a fundamental level, semiconductor revenue has been dropping for the past five consecutive quarters ( Omdia ). In fact, in the first quarter of 2023 alone, semiconductor revenue dropped 9% from the previous quarter ( Omdia ). As I see it right now, here are some positive points for semiconductor companies: Generative AI has increased demand for semiconductors Cryptocurrency prices are high, increasing demand for semiconductors and some negative points for semiconductor companies: Overextended from Moving Average 300 Generally declining demand Decreased consumer demand for gaming PCs as Economy heads into recession (since gaming PCs are a luxury good) US Semiconductor Equipment is being used in China, increasing supply and therefore decreasing price for semiconductors. Burry entered a large put position on SOXL, and NVDA put premium is currently extremely high Overall, I am bearish on semiconductors because I think the AI argument is priced in excessively considering the previously dropping demand, and have purchased puts to profit off a potential fall in the value of semiconductor companies.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by spiritualhealer117
Tech on the Edge: SMH vs. QQQ Signals Caution Amid Bull MarketIntroduction: While we remain enthusiastic about the strength of the current bull market, emerging signs of stress in capital flows warrant a closer look, particularly in the tech sector. One key metric to monitor is the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). This ratio acts as a barometer for tech sector health: when SMH outperforms QQQ, it indicates a risk-on environment; conversely, QQQ outperforming SMH raises caution flags. Analysis: Tech Sector Barometer: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has historically been a reliable indicator of momentum in the tech sector. Outperformance by SMH reflects strong demand for semiconductors and broader tech health, while underperformance signals potential concerns. Emerging Concern: Currently, we’re observing the potential development of a rounding top formation in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio. While this formation isn’t confirmed, a breakdown below key support would validate it, signaling broader weakness in the tech sector. Critical Inflection Point: For now, chip bulls must take control and push this ratio higher to maintain sector strength and prevent a broader pullback in the market. Failure to do so could signal a shift in sentiment and increased vulnerability in tech stocks. Conclusion: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is at a critical juncture, with the potential to dictate near-term momentum in the tech sector. While the bull market remains intact, any confirmed weakness in this ratio could signal broader vulnerability in tech stocks. Will chip bulls step up to defend the sector, or are we on the cusp of a pullback? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio, the potential rounding top formation, and key support levels) Tags: #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official
SMH bounce to $245MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at or near all bottom channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is spiked negative Price at near 3.618 Fibonacci level In at $240.55 Target is $245 or channel top Stop loss is manual
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by chancethepug
SMH eyes on $237: Key support that needs to hold for next leg upChip stocks have been cooling down for a few months. SMH covers a cross section of the industry and is dipping. Currently testing a key support acting as bottom of range. $ 236.36-238.96 is the current support of interest. $ 246.87-247.78 above is minor but key resistance $ 225.66-225.86 below is next support for stop loss. . All of these zones were obvious in last analysis: . The major levels for SMH are set by its "Genesis Sequence": ==================================================================
NASDAQ:SMH
by EuroMotif
Opening (IRA): SMH October 18th 220 Covered StraddleComments: Third highest 30-day IV (46.1%) on my options highly liquid ETF board behind BITO and TQQQ. There are two different aspects to this trade, the first being the 220 monied covered call with the short call at the -75 delta. I had to route this as two separate trades and got filled for covered call aspect for a 213.35 debit. The same strike short put is at the +21 delta strike, I got filled for a 5.05 credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 428.30 Break Even: 213.35 for the covered call; 214.95 for the short put Max Profit: 6.65 (for the monied covered call) + 5.05 (for the short put) = 11.70 ROC at Max: 2.73% 50% Max: 5.85 ROC at 50% Max: 1.37% Generally speaking, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; otherwise, I'll look to roll out the short straddle as a unit to maintain net delta at or below +50 (100 delta for the shares, -75 for the short call, + 25 for the short put).
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction: The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand. Analysis: Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors. Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies. Conclusion: The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation) #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official
Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by pvrcharts
SMH shows long term signs of troubleSMH fails to make new highs since July peak going into sideways trend. This paints a picture of a long term reversal to bear side coming Comparing OBV trend with the March and July peak, we see that OBV diverges downwards while price continues indicating reversal After severe sell off in August, we see that price trends sideways failing to make new highs The sideways trend is during a typical rough time of the year, so weakness and volatility is expected Nov and Dec normally bring in strong rallies We could be simply looking at a pullback in time as ETF takes a breather from July peak, before rallying continues. The other alternative is that this may be distribution phase of a high risk sector preparing for a huge sell off.
NASDAQ:SMH
by ratchet-mint
1
SMH maybe forming an island gap reversalSMH lately broke above its downward trend that looked promising as a turning from this long ward slide we have been in. Selling may not be over yet After gapping up into more bullish territory it held for a day, stock gapped back down again Forming an island gap We could see the stock come back down into its original trading territory SPY is currently trading very high at the moment. As SPY contracts we should also see SMH falling as well.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint