Get started
VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETFVANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETFVANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF

VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Analysis News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

SMH trade ideas

The end is not here, but it’s closerHello friends. Semiconductors are the new oil, but that's not a good thing. Semiconductors (and subsequently their stocks) have been rapidly rising due to massive global shortages. Like with every trend ever, emotional retail traders tend to assume that it will last for eternity, and rational observers of the market who have been here long enough know that it will in fact not last forever. "Nothing gold can stay." Shortages are an issue that markets have the function to resolve, both by crushing demand (Fed is doing this + high prices are also doing the same), and creating new supply faster (semi producers are doing this). Shortages are not usually a persistent problem, they are a temorary hiccup not unlike the 2020 Covid crash was. Brandon Kulik: To me, if I was writing a headline, I’d say something like, “The end is not here, but it’s closer.” That’s how I’d represent it. This dude has *decades* of experience in the semi industry. We listen when he talks. We take notes. The interesting thing about how Kulik worded this, is that the EWT count of the chart tells the EXACT same story. The party isn't quite over yet. But it will be, soon. We are expecting to see a pullback in semis along with the broader market, which will flush out the glut of retail puts and allow for larger players to position themselves for the coming decline. Another thing to keep an eye on is the average P/E ratio of this sector. Due to the bubble, it has risen to an eye-popping 32.94, which is probably a lot higher than it should be. Assuming we have a recession (81% chance this will happen in Q2 2022), this P/E ratio should compress to more like the 15 to 20X P/E range, which represents substantial downisde in price, not to mention downside in earnings.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by bowtrix
$SMH Short Idea Semiconductors have been showing relative weakness as the Federal Reserve continues to execute QT. Higher interest rates have contracted stock prices and will most likely contract earnings within the next two quarters. The semiconductor sector is one that traded to what we can consider a bubble during the last two years; the market is no longer "risk on" as we can see by the damage that has been done to the bond market. Technicals on $SMH provide a Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly timeframe; the stock has already broken down from the neckline and has retested its respected weekly EMAs. Bearish traders can short this via leap put options or by selling short shares of $SMH or its holdings. Puts with strikes of 130 and 125 look attractive for October. OptionsSwing Analyst Daniel Betancourt
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by optionsswing
$SMH - Head and shoulder break down$SMH has been in down trend from head & shoulder breakdown. The next support point would be around $177 which is 1.618 fib extension area as well as head and shoulder measured move projection. If $177 area doesn't hold we could see $151 area which is the pre-pandemic high area. The worst case is $108 which should be absolute bottom if we reach there. Target 1 - $177 Target 2 - $151 Target 3 - $108 (absolute worst case like China invades Taiwan kind of situation) Disclaimer - Not an investment advice.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by PaperBozz
MACRO bearish thesis semiconductorsHey all, I wanted to share my thoughts with you guys regarding semiconductors as that was one of the sectors people were most bullish on back when the market seemingly could only go up. That is no longer the case. If you look at names like AMAT and TSM, the distribution on semiconductors is in the past, and now we are in the markdown phase(A lot of false breakouts and Wyckoff distribution looks across the board). Semiconductors are very cyclical stocks and are still relatively overvalued compared to the rest of the market. I am actually quite bullish on semiconductors over the short term and fundamentally, but I do anticipate names in the industry to resolve lower and rallies to be faded. As a bear, I would wait to short significant rallies- watch the next few weeks as I think semis are going to rally in July.
NASDAQ:SMH
by MichaelEugen1
1
Opening (IRA): SMH August 19th 175 Short Put... for a 1.76 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the August monthly (53 DTE) paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Adding a smidge of long delta back into my portfolio to keep my net delta happy using an ETF that is closely correlated with the broad market (SPY 3-month correlation of .92) instead of cluttering up my IWM, QQQ, and SPY short put ladders further. Other ETF's to do this with: XLK (.97 3-month correlation), EFA (.90).
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
1
Semiconductor ETF buySMH Semiconductor ETF is at a major support trendline (white dash) and EMA377 (blue line). SMH is a screaming buy now. Technically speaking, there is essentially no downside risk and plenty of upside reward at this entry point. Computer chips, also known as semiconductors, are the brains of products like smartphones, computers, cars, medical devices, digital cameras, TVs, washing machines, refrigerators, every appliance, LED bulbs, ATMs, trains, planes, the internet, communications, pretty much everything.. WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - The White House held a classified briefing on Wednesday with some U.S. lawmakers on the dire risks to the American economy from semiconductor supply chain issues as it pushes Congress for $52 billion in funding to subsidize production. Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by Options360