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XLP trade ideas

Crash Incoming 6? (Update 2) CONCLUSION Hi again. There is too much noise out there: a lot of controversial news, information and counter information, 'beautiful' slogans like 'bad news, are good news' and vice versa, or, as an example, good, and not so good, ideas in the 'giant' Internet. For me, a rational approach was necessary. Since March 2022, with simple charts and no bias ideas, I am studying the possibility of a big crash. Since then, the market has corrected strongly and, recently, we had a nice run. I don't know if we will see "the mother of all crashes" in the next months, what I know is that we want to make money and, for that, the only think you need to know is following the trend. The best you can do to beat the market is to invest or trade the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq (or maybe the 5-10 big companies of these indexes) following this idea and forget about news, earnings, reports, gurus courses, or pre and after markets of individual companies 20% moves. I know it's not easy, there are a lot of distractions and greed is our major enemy; we want to invest in everything, right? In this update, I conclude, for now, that the best chart to predict the 'health' of the market (not the economy, of course), and stop the noise, is XLP/SPX. I hope that this 'crash' serie is helping you to protect your portfolio, nevertheless, we need to take action and not to invest with a 'crash bias'. Here we have the monthly chart, it's very clear that when the trend is up, the S&P will go down and vice versa. I don't need to use more words to explain it and I advise you to find a simple strategy and stop following so many people or other 'distractions'. As an example, I will ad an image to this update with another timeframe and an EMA, of course you can choose your timeframe and EMA to identify the trend and swing trade accordingly. Stay well.
AMEX:XLP
by SometimesLosing
4
XLP/SPY indicates probability for a move to the upside higherIdea is based on the XLP/SPY chart using the inverted relationship between them. Since we have just made a strong move to the upside in XLP/SPY during the latest bear market, price has extended well above the 50 MA, a retracement towards it is warranted and leads to the SPY moving higher historically. The probability for a move to the upside at least in the short term is therefore higher! If we drop below the 50 MA and close back above it on the weekly chart, that would be an excellent place to short the SPY again! However, if we break below it and continue to the downside, then expect continuation to all time high.
AMEX:XLPShort
by NQunlocked
6
Crash Incoming 6? (Update) A more precise approach of this chart: After reaching the white line, now support, there is a possibility that XLP/SPX will go, at least, towards the yellow line. But maybe only the red resistance line will be the next strong inflection point for the S&P 500. With these possibilities in mind to manage my short positions, I will wait to long any asset, except for TLT; based on my "Crash Incoming 11?" idea, after consolidation, it could start its way up in the following weeks (nevertheless, as always, it will be a very cautious buy). Recently, BTC (crypto) started a strong pullback and, generally, at least in the last months, this market anticipates the traditional markets moves. Stay well...
AMEX:XLP
by SometimesLosing
Crash Incoming 6?Usually Consumer Staples, a risk-off sector, has an inverse correlation with the S&P500 . In this chart, strong uptrends in the XLP / SPX (blue line) coincides with S&P500 (green line) corrections or crashes (circles). There is a possibility that the bottom of the XLP / SPX was the below white line in the chart, while the top one, a historically strong support/resistance , could have a significant role in the following weeks or months. If this white line is broken in the future, it could mean, in the worst case scenario, the confirmation of a bear market or a crash. Again, lines in the sand, nevertheless, I believe this are times to be extra careful. (This idea was developed based on a Game of Trades analysis).
AMEX:XLP
by SometimesLosing
6
Will Consumer Staples Continue to Outperform Tech?Investors preference between XLP and QQQ is important to pay attention to as it shows the trade-off of "risk off equities" (XLP) versus "Risk on equities" (QQQ). The last time XLP was at these levels relative to Tech was in 1999! The chart above shows XLP/QQQ. As you can see, XLP outperforms heavily during larger degree market corrections. Since December 2021 Staples have been on a tear due to inflation and the Invasion of Ukraine. Investors are clearly spooked. Instead of investing in speculative tech stocks, they are looking towards investing in markets that have stable demand. Staples are the essential products used by consumers. If there is to be a bigger market drawdown, we will need to see stronger outperformance by XLP. Weakness in XLP is definitely a bullish sign for markets. The Orange Lines show periods where XLP outperformed QQQ. The Blue Lines represent Bullish target areas for XLP.
AMEX:XLP
by arama-nuggetrouble
XLP 73/70 Mar 18 Put Credit SpreadThis idea is a little out of the norm for me. I generally stick to broad market, but from time to time I play sectors. Credit Received: 0.36 or $36 / contract Strikes: Short 73 Long 70 Max Loss: 300-36 = $264 per contract Short Leg Delta: 30 Delta (more on this below) Trade Reasoning: 1. Market is being beat up by both the Ukraine - Russia situation and inflation, if both continue to worsen I believe consumer staples (what XLP tracks) will outperform the rest of the market. 2. White line presents a possible support level above my short strike here - Check! 3. Renko Overlay indicator from www.tradingview.com is a new addition to my chart, and it showed another decent support level (see picture below), this is represented by the yellow dashed line. 12% Return on risk - Less than 30 DTE - TP at 50% - SL at -200% Notes: 1. Delta is almost 2x what I normally shoot for (16 delta normal short target), however with these sector ETFs there is often wide spreads, little volume and somewhat crappy IV as well. As such, beggars can't be choosers. 2. Average True Range - ATR on this thing is piddly, so I felt more comfortable going closer to the money here. 3. Renko has been something that I have played with in the past, but I found it left out TOO much info. As such this overlay option from /u/LonesomeTheBlue is a very welcome addition.
AMEX:XLPLong
by ThetaTrades
1
Week 4: Sector ETF Expectations I use sector ETFs in my IRA account. Currently, I hold XOP and XLF, and I wish I held XLE. I will try to buy XLP (Which shouldn't be a problem) next week. For Week 4, I'm expecting XLF to firm up and XOP to come in a bit. XLE would be kind to give me an entry point at prior resistance/ support, but we'll see. Oil looks darn strong at the moment. XLF (Held), hurt me Friday, but held support. XLE on fire XOP (Held), can it hang on and break through resistance?
AMEX:XLP
by SpartyPA28