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Market News Report - 01 September 2024This past week, the euro faltered the most compared to other currencies. Meanwhile, the winners included the New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise in our latest news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut at the next meeting in mid-September. Another bearish focus for the US is the slowing labour market. As with the beginning of any month, watch out for the unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, having recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. Also, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stressed that it is data-dependent. This means that certain economic data, like employment data, may boost the euro. However, the primary bearish driver is the interest rate, with STIR markets anticipating a 100% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the next meeting this month. On the bright side, German inflation recently fell to its lowest level since March 2021, to 1.9% (from 2.3% in July 2024). Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After breaking the last major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. However, their meeting in July was slightly more dovish than hawkish. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It has just broken the major resistance at 1.31424. Despite this, it remains an area of interest due to appearing in a high time frame. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard. STIR markets predict a rate hold next month (74% chance vs. 62% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly with inflation. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The yen is the only currency where a change to the short-term outlook is necessary (from 'weak bullish' to 'bullish') The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability, up from 95% last week) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bias is intact, and we should expect buyers on dips, more so with the dollar's macro outlook indicating a decline. After cooling down recently, USD/JPY looks to have resumed its downtrend, aligning with the outlook mentioned. The major support level to watch is 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. Based on their language, a hike isn't out of the question this year. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level. While the next nearby target is 0.68711, we need to see how it behaves at the latter. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per last week's meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While we can look towards a future level, this area is still worth considering. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The ongoing mortgage stress in Canada has forced the Bank of Canada (BoC) to be dovish, the first major bearish catalyst. With a rate cut last month, STIR markets have increased the probability to over 90% of the same in Wednesday's meeting. The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Still, this narrative is getting tired. Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut later this month (a 35% chance) and December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. After a notable retracement at the start of last month, USD/CHF is looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained mostly unchanged from the previous report, except for JPY and NZD. Key news events to watch this week include the US unemployment rate and the CAD interest rate decision. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help guide you in determining the bias you should have for each currency.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
DXY View!!The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant currency despite nearly constant hand-wringing over its potential demise. And its resilience may be despite, rather than a result of, actions by U.S. officials, a London-based currency strategist argued Thursday. “Most policymakers consider preserving the value of their currency as an important consideration. To many it can become the paramount consideration when times are tough,” said Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, in a note. “But to U.S. policymakers it seems that there is a death wish when it comes to the dollar,” he wrote.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FXBANkthe8055
FULL DXY ANALYSISHello my wonderful community ! it’s been a while I posted. 
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here. The colors for each line/zone Monthly - Yellow Weekly - Orange Daily - Green 4H - Red 1H - Purple My Monthly chart view: Ever since 2010, price has been in an uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows. Price keeps breaking major resistance areas and turning them to dynamic support areas and respects the EMA 50 anytime it makes a correction. Take note as price is trending upwards and respecting the channel constructed. My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2017 until 2022 before the bulls came in fully in early 2022 and made an Uptrend and breaking the resistance with bullish candles before exerting a correction and respecting the newly formed support. My Daily chart view:
I also noticed a range forming due to this same correction between the areas marked in red.
Notice the double top indicating a reversal after the break of the neck line. After the invalidation of the Red daily trend line by the break with bearish engulfing candle, The bears take full control driving the price down to an area of Demand.
Price is in a downtrend as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup after the break and retest of the upper red resistance but that will take forever.
 My 4H chart view:
I capitalized on this trade by executing based on my trading strategy with a nice sell setup after the break of the neckline with a risk: reward of 1:2.
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as we are in this same 4H time frame 
 Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.

 My 1H chart view:
Sometimes we just have to go further with the believe that the market will reveal its hand , so I’m patiently waiting for buy setups as price is gaining momentum with the EMA 14 crossing over the EMA 50 and price still respecting the area of Demand and major support zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by newschooltrader
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 101.728. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 100.553 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Navigating Critical Market Levels: DXY & NAS100 Analysis👀 👉 The DXY and NAS100 are currently at pivotal points, with price action flashing caution signals. The DXY is probing key liquidity levels, while both DXY and NAS100 are showing signs of structural shifts in their trends. It could be prudent to approach the market cautiously today, waiting to see how the USD develops during the New York session and into Tuesday. Disclaimer: The insights shared in this video are for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
TVC:DXY
by tradingwithanthony
2
Dollar Index analysis by the Mallicast teamThe Mallicast team has provided their analysis of the Dollar Index on the 1-hour timeframe as follows: Initially, it is predicted that the Dollar Index will drop to the level of 101.554. After that, a strong upward momentum is expected, reaching a price of 101.748. This will be followed by a correction in the upward movement with minimal price fluctuation, and the upward movement is expected to continue until it reaches the price of 102.013.
TVC:DXYLong
by mallicast
Happy Labour Day!2nd September DXY: Within the bullish channel, (upside) could trade up to 102 resistance, needs to break 101.80. Downside only if price breaks below 101.50 (23.6%) NZDUSD: look for reaction at 0.6220, Sell 0.62 SL 25 TP 60 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6810 SL 20 TP 40 GBPUSD: Sell 1.31 SL 40 TP 65 EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.10 round number support level USDJPY: Look for reaction at 147 resistance level USDCHF: Sell 0.8460 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Buy 1.3525 SL 20 TP 70 Gold: Break above 2500 to trade up to 2515 and 2530, needs to stay above 2480
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai