Why I Think More Companies Will Buy Themselves Back in 2025I noticed that Nordstrom is making headlines today as the Nordstrom family moves to take the company private, effectively "buying it back" from public shareholders. I find this fascinating and may add it to one of my themes for 2025: more small and mid cap companies will leave public markets and go private.
What is Nordstrom's doing? The strategy involves acquiring all outstanding shares not already owned by the family, removing Nordstrom from the public stock exchange. Taking the company private allows the family to regain full control, enabling strategic decisions without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports or shareholder scrutiny. Actually, the exact quote from the company is rather interesting: The Nordstrom family believes it will be more successful without the scrutiny and demands of the public market.
For Nordstrom, going private could mean focusing on long-term investments and restructuring without the constraints of public market expectations, costs or regulations. Ah, the freedom to build! A few things to note about this:
1. Look at the trend of Nordstrom's in the chart above into this go private offer.
2. Nordstrom's will save massively on legal costs and fees associated with going public.
3. I think more companies that are floundering at the small and mid cap level will opt to go in this direction.
4. More CFOs and CEOs will ask if it's worth it to stay public if there is no immediate benefit.
5. What's also interesting is that the companies can always go public again if they think they need to raise money once again or need to tap back into the markets.
This will be a space to watch and I will be writing about this more in 2025.
JWN trade ideas
Nordstrom's Strategic Shift: Navigating Challenges in the RetailIn the ever-evolving landscape of retail, Nordstrom ( NYSE:JWN ) stands at a pivotal crossroads, grappling with the aftermath of a global pandemic and the shifting tides of consumer behavior. The recent announcement of weaker-than-expected forecasts for 2024 has sent shockwaves through Wall Street, prompting analysts and investors alike to scrutinize the company's strategies for survival in a fiercely competitive market.
Amidst concerns of sluggish demand and cautious consumer spending, Nordstrom ( NYSE:JWN ) finds itself facing an uphill battle. Despite delivering strong holiday-quarter sales, the specter of inflation and higher interest rates looms large, casting doubt on the company's ability to stage a robust recovery. With annual revenue projections falling below expectations and profit per share estimates disappointing investors, Nordstrom's ( NYSE:JWN ) performance in the coming year hangs in the balance.
Analysts point to several key factors contributing to Nordstrom's challenges. The company's reliance on non-essential items, such as apparel and household goods, leaves it vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer sentiment and economic conditions. Moreover, intensifying competition from online retailers and fast-fashion brands has put pressure on Nordstrom's traditional brick-and-mortar model, necessitating a strategic rethink.
In response to these headwinds, Nordstrom ( NYSE:JWN ) is embarking on a bold new direction. Central to its strategy is a concerted effort to revitalize its discount banner Rack, leveraging it as a vehicle for growth in the burgeoning off-price channel. By tapping into the demand for affordable, trend-conscious products, Nordstrom ( NYSE:JWN ) aims to broaden its appeal and capture market share among lower-income consumers.
The decision to eschew new full-line stores in favor of expanding Rack's footprint underscores Nordstrom's commitment to adaptability and agility in a rapidly changing industry. By reallocating resources towards areas of growth and opportunity, the company seeks to carve out a niche in the market while mitigating the impact of stiff competition.
However, challenges persist on the horizon. Nordstrom must ( NYSE:JWN ) contend with Macy's, its peer in the retail sector, which has opted to pivot towards its luxury brands to court higher-earning clientele. The divergence in strategy highlights the divergent paths taken by retailers grappling with similar market forces, underscoring the complexity of the retail landscape.
As Nordstrom ( NYSE:JWN ) charts its course for the future, the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. Yet, amidst the turbulence, opportunities abound for those willing to embrace change and innovation. With a steadfast commitment to adaptation and a keen eye on emerging trends, Nordstrom stands poised to weather the storm and emerge stronger on the other side.
Nordstrom Long +114% 1:5RRI see Nordstrom having a strong rally in the coming weeks and I can see it easily taking out all those highs fairly quickly and putting in over +100% move.
I compared it to other companies I'm bullish on and it's showing relative strength vs them too which adds to my conviction.
I like JWN at 14.13Nordstrom is still a profitable company, even if middle-class retail continues to evaporate.
It has BIG SUPPORT at this level.
Has a tendency to jump up from this level.
COUNTERPOINT: No real idea how many people are willing to buy/sell at prices lower than this; sub-14 hasn't been seen since late 2020.
Nordstrom Head and Shoulder'sJWN has a trailing twelve month Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 73.69 which places it above the histroical average of roughly 15.
Another expensive retail name
#JWN has alot of stores in #California
Obviously not a great place to be a retailer, given the rampant crime spree going on in that state!
well The chart action clearly foretells further woes ahead ..
$JWN Nordstrom Ryan Cohen Really did Buy the Turtle Necks. Seems A good area to keep eyes on.
Try see if finds support on POC (Point of Control) in Volume Profile
Looks primed to move up.
Possible Targets Described in Video
Not Financial Advice.
If Ryan Cohen Has bought in, I suspect this is worth a entry.
NYSE:JWN
JWN Protective Options StrategyFashion retailer Nordstrom sells brand name clothing, shoes, beauty, home goods, etc in 94 large department stores as well as 240 Nordstrom Rack outlets. It also makes ~50% sales online, via their official websites as well as flash-sales from HauteLook and curator services through Trunk Club.
Technically minded investors may see some opportunity in the chart (bottoming, consolidation into a falling wedge) along with optimism in the general stock market with the Fed's lower rate hike this week. The RSI has also been consistently chopping in the almost-oversold region, possibly indicating upward momentum. However, Nordstrom's weak holiday sales earnings may also cause some hesitation -- this opportunity is not without risks.
With this bullish options strategy, you can capture up to 21% (22% annualized) of the potential gain with downside protection of 34% -- start to lose only if JWN falls below $12.43 as of 1/19/24
Trade Legs:
Buy 1 $17.5 call
Sell 1 $22.5 call
Sell 2 $12.5 puts
All expiring 1/19/24
Capital requirement for this strategy: $2,486
JWN Bearish inclined naked calls 14 Oct expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought
JWN seems like a good candidate to sell calls especially since they had a huge 16% gap down after their earnings on the 16 Aug
My hypothesis is that there will be a continued bearish price movement below S&R 19.26. Encouraged by the broader market movement and retail’s tightening
Despite the Fed’s action, the latest reports still see a rising CPI and Core inflation numbers. If the effects are not yet felt by the consumers this will catch up soon
JWN has a S&R line on 19.26 and so far it seems to be holding out
Risk Mitigation
21.72 is a Trade Risk Point where the recent gap would be filled and a full reversal is confirmed
19.26 is an S&R line and if it holds out it confirms the new bearish price direction
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
With the huge 17% bearish gap, I don’t think it is a good risk to be bullish on this stock. Especially with the bear market stance
Look For New Information
No new information
How Do I Feel Now
I would have preferred to sell at the strike of 23 but the price provided was not conducive. I bought this at 22.5 as if my hypothesis of a continued bearish price direction at S&R 19.26 holds, we should be ok.
Trade Specs
Sold 410 Calls @ 0.15
Strike: 22.5
% to Strike: 22.73%
BP Used: 77k
Max Gain: 6150
JWN Bearish inclined naked calls 31 July expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought
JWN (Nordstrom) is a luxury departmental store chain. With the concerns of the recession and the cooling signs of the job market, layoffs in tech and the overall retail leadership cautiousness during the earnings. I think this is the right direction especially since it is following the larger market direction
US retail sales also post the first drop in 5 months as auto purchases plunge and inflation bites
Risk Mitigation
I have two S&R lines at 26 and 29.46 if it breaches 29.46 it is an immediate close
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
I would not take a bull position on this. Especially since retail is one of the industries that will be hit first by inflation
Look For New Information
The slight decline in May, restrained by a plunge in vehicle purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation.
I Feel
I believe I am aligned with the larger market sentiment. While there might be a technical recovery. I think the drops are deeper than the climbs. Also the media keeps hammering into readers the “recession” word
Trade Specs
Sold 270 Calls @ 0.34
Strike 31
26% to Strike
BP Used: 66460
Max Gain: 9004.5
Nordstrom JWN - A Latent ScalpI hear that the economy is pretty bad right now. So bad that we're in a recession, although the Government doesn't like the word "recession."
The real word to describe the situation humanity is facing that nobody is saying yet, however, is "Depression."
Here in North America, we aren't quite there yet, but no amount of money printing and astroturfing is capable of keeping the true state of the environment, the food supply, the water sources, and our energy reserves hidden for all that much longer.
So, they say that for a company like Nordstrom, it's surely "a strong sell." After all, the whole sector is going down the drain because even the middle-upper class is spending less, and that surely is true.
Yet, one doesn't have to back up the dump truck to buy and hold something for 6 years, either.
Nordstrom's post-dump price action has some unique characteristics. Mainly, that for the better part of two weeks, it's been completely bearish.
It also has not retested the $20 psychological level to find buyers, or rebalanced the dump's gap. That all on its own is peculiar in a market that just loves to flirt with gaps after making them, at least a little bit.
With price trading as low as $16.84 on Friday, a run to $21 yields a 22% trade. Ideally, if price action is to do the pseudo fakeout dump I am expecting when markets open on Tuesday:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
One can get in cheaper than $16.84, and then the risk/reward is all the sweeter.
I believe it's without a doubt that an exceptional shakeout is coming in the markets, a fundamental correction that will crack the pre-COVID highs and have everyone questioning what's going to happen with their happiness and their investments.
So JWN Nordstrom is not something you would want to hold. You want to drop it like a hot potato. But its current setup does provide what may be an imminent opportunity.
NORDSTROM - BEARISH SCENARIONORDSTROM reported better than estimated Q2 results.
EPS came in at $0.81, better than the consensus estimate of $0.80. Revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $3.99 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.96 billion
Despite the good report
the American luxury department store chain is facing demand and customer traffic decelerating
The next price target is located at the $12 support level.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
JWN ShortDowntrend Channel touch,
Bounce back to supply Zone,
1st Trendline break+ retest,
2nd Trendline break, GAP down and run,
Earning: 8/22/2022 Est. 0.82
Short 24.5
Stop 28
Target 20, 12
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
JWN Recurring PatternA large broadening wedge has formed showing three distinct tops initially
This recurring pattern can be seen in red with the last top yet to form
With this top to form a large bullish move is required
Similar bottoms can be observed also along the bottom dotted line re-emphasizing the pattern
200MA for further emphasis