OIH trade ideas
Modest double bottom with upside divergence on OIHModest double bottom with upside divergence on OIH bought some 11.5 puts that expire oct 11 for 11c.
$OIH Iron Condor OpportunityInstead of selling a short strangle, it's better to buy some OTM contracts at next to nothing to make the trade efficient in terms of buying power. The breakeven points on the trade aren't GREAT, but, the trade is pretty low risk. If it works, great and if not, hey, we'll get 'em next time.
$spy $oih huge upside and easy stop lossI find it hard to buy fundamentally, but technically it is giving a buy signal on an bullish rsi divergence basis.
Long - Mean reversions RR tradeAbove the blue shaded region want to be long for a short timeframe move.
RR is there. However, risk adjusted returns may be better in sectors with better relative strength.
Trade may not be suitable for all risk profiles
OIH Looking very bearishAMEX:OIH tried to breakout of its range but could not do it. As the adage says, "There is nothing more bearish than a failed breakout." And, though the concept of a failed breakout can be debated, this tried to move upward but could not and has two strong bearish days behind it pushing it below previous support. This is looking like a very clear downward move.
OIH - Looking for a quick run to $20.00After suffering a long draw down, spot oil has recovered well but this services ETF is lagging.
Going back to the beginning of the year, OIH has been in a range between $16 and $18. Fueled by spot oil pushing $60 along with a positive sentiment in the overall markets (S&P 500 broke out yesterday over 2815) there's no reason this shouldn't run to $20 soon.
We bought some $20 calls going out to late summer to try and take advantage of the impending move.
Some Sunshine through the hurricaneThere does appear to be some light meaning the markets may not be ripe for the correction we all expect.
OPENING: OIH JAN/APRIL 16/20 UPWARD CALL DIAGONAL... for a 2.62/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit on Setup: $138/contract
Max Loss on Setup: $262/contract
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 65.5%
Break Even: 18.62 vs. 18.60 spot
Notes: Taking a bullish assumption directional shot in OIH with plenty of time to work out/reduce cost basis ... . Will look at taking profit at 50% max.
OIH/WTI Spread Should Close - Long OIH / Short CL (USOIL)OIH/WTI Spread Should Close - Long OIH / Short CL (USOIL).
Red Circles Spread.
OIH about to lift off SLB and HAL 2 examples of top holdings. It's time for the down trend pressure to end for now. This is a slow moving sector and most all stocks in this space gaped lower after last earnings. Time to create a shopping list if dip buyers show up.
OIH VS. XLE- They are "Twins" in long term.
- In short term, since last high on MAY 17, 2018, OIH is weaker than XLE.
- Lower lows and lower highs for OIH
- OIH is on the supportive price formed by last two reversing points
- XLE does not hit the lower, instead it has a higher low which looks like it has reversed the downtrend
If XLE is the right, it means OIH has found or is close to its support too. Then the twins will climb up in the next weeks.
If OIH is the right one, XLE will fall down from its supportive neck line which remains effective in the past 3 months.
If this time is not typical, then who knows.
Personally I prefer the former one, there is not much room for OIH to go down according to the historical low in JAN 2016.
OIH I want insightI just don't understand why this part of the Oil sector continues to under perform. I am asking for input explaining why the strength in XLE isn't getting translated over to the $OIH sector.
RSI pivot level play - OIL SERVICES $OIHOil Services has been lagging the energy recovery.
This could be the start to another move higher. Recently OIH has had massive under-performance relative to oil.
Breakout out or get out. Maintain the RR. The under performance has be significant thus far.
OPENING: OIH AUG 17TH 26 SHORT STRADDLE (LATE POST)... for a 2.36/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 55%
Max Profit: $236/contact
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect On Margin: Undefined/$525/contract
Break Evens: 23.64/28.36
Delta: -9.37
Theta: 2.1
Notes: Did this from my phone on Friday ... . Although I like to see >35% background implied volatility when pulling the trigger on these, at 30.3%, this isn't horrible. Will shoot for 25% max/roll at 24 DTE or on side approaching worthless.
OIH - A bounce up? What do you guys think?We hit some resistance, looks like we are headed up to another resistance zone. Could be a good swing trade.
OIH ResistanceMorning Friends, check out this chart!
OIH is starting to roll over. Will oil follow? All of the smaller oil plays have performed great (DNR, GTE) but it is time to seriously consider taking profits.
Not that there will be a time to get back in again. That is the good news.
TRADE IDEA: OIH JULY 20TH 19 LONG/APRIL 20TH 26 SHORT CALLThis is a Poor Man's Covered Call, with the 90 delta July long call standing in as your stock, and the April 20th 26 short call functioning as it would in a covered call situation. Your max loss is the difference between what you paid for the long (currently 6.28 at the mid) minus what you received for the short call (currently .69 at the mid). Consequently, you pay a debit for this setup: 6.28 minus .69 or 5.59/contract. 5.59 is the max you can lose if you (a) do nothing with the setup; and (b) both the short and longs go to worthless on a finish of the underlying below the long strike at 19. 5.59 is also your cost basis in the long option.
Look to exit the trade at 10-20% of what you put it on for (i.e., for a $56-$112 profit). This will occur along a neutral to bullish spectrum if either (a) price doesn't move much from here such that the intrinsic value in the long does not change appreciably over time and the short call value dwindles to worthless to (b) price shooting up and through your short call, at which point further increases in value of the long are offset by further increases in the value of the short, thus capping out further gains in the same fashion as would occur with a covered call. On break of the short call, wait toward expiry for the most of the extrinsic to bleed out of the short and then exit the trade as opposed to attempting to roll out the short call and/or strike improve. If the setup still has a "good look," re-up with a totally new Poor Man's.
Intratrade, generally roll the short call out for duration and "as is" or to a similarly delta'd strike as the original short call on significant decrease in value (ordinarily, at 50% max). In the unfortunate event that this is no longer productive because price has pulled away from the short call too much, consider rolling the short call down to a reasonably delta'd strike (i.e., between the 20 and 30) while keeping an eye on your cost basis in the long in an attempt to ensure that it is always less than its current value.
OPENING: OIH MARCH 16TH 24 SHORT PUTS... for a .97/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 62%
Max Profit: $97/contract
Max Loss: $2303
Break Even: 23.03
* -- Assuming price goes to zero and you do no rolls or take other loss mitigation measures (e.g., sell short call verts against, etc.).
Notes: With background implied volatility greater than 35% and with the recent sell-off in both oil and the broad market, I'm getting into this underlying at a price extreme, but will work it a little differently than I ordinary do. Here, the goal will be to reduce cost basis over time, with each roll taken being for a credit .... .
