VMW trade ideas
ATVI Stock Technical AnalysisATVI is fundamentally set up for a HUGE fourth quarter. And the charts agree.
I would be in ATVI at ANY price below $60 as I believe $70 a share is a conservative target (13%).
I will try and snipe an entry at the BOTTOM of this current range to maximize gains... my limit order is set!
ATVI Daily Hammer CloseBounced off upper kelt channel(purple line)
Forming a nice bullish hammer closing midway of previous candle.
ATVI is known for having a +$1 move on these kinds of setups. Likely a gap with some kind of news.
That eod day action was interesting closing at high!
-TheTradingNinja
Activision - Generally upward momentumGreen lines are trend lines. Red lines are stoploss positions.
Overbought for the short term?I'm in this one for the long term but I think they may have a short term dip. My indicators show it's overbought and the Chaikin Oscillator shows a trending decline towards the Zero Line. Wish I could have gotten in this one on the ground floor but I think it still has a lot of long term growth potential as eSports becomes bigger in the U.S. Feedback appreciated.
Potential Earnings Plays 2017/05/04CBS (Reports 5/4/2017 AC) IVR = 64.6, Expected move = 3.03%
ATVI (Reports 5/4/2017 AC) IVR = 69.9, Expected move = 4.72%
MNST (Reports 5/4/2017 AC) IVR = 79.3, Expected move = 5.45%
Z (Reports 5/4/2017 AC) IVR = 40.9, Expected move = 5.46%
ATVI Ending Diagonal?Not big fan of selling into corrections but look how fast the price has moved down from recent Ending Diagonals (good RSI divergence to support these).
Most of the ending diagnosis retrace back to the end of wave 2 so we could see a correction down to 44.60
There could be one more move up before the correction (Although RSI suggests that may not be the case)
Drop down to a lower time frame to confirm the breakout before taking the trade in case we do get one more move up.
Short - on three drive completionWatching - This is a follow up to the weekly bullish three drive trade i shared which has now pretty much completed on target, which gives us a good chance of a short at this level please see linked chart for analysis. My overall stance remains bullish but we could see some profit taking around here and get that gap closed up at least.
OPENING: ATVI COVERED PUTThis is a continuation of a trade that started as an earnings play iron fly (see post below).
There are a couple of reasons I went this particular way, as opposed to attempting to continue to work the setup "as is."
First, the March 17th 40 short call was deep in the money. Even assuming I could roll to improve that strike a bit, it would still be deep in the money. Deep in the money options are generally made up of a lot of intrinsic value, so you won't get that much time decay out of them.
Secondly (and relatedly), you can't get much of a credit to roll a deep in the money short option because you're basically rolling from a mostly intrinsicly valued option to, well, a mostly intrinsically valued option, and so you're not picking up that much premium such that you'll receive a credit for a roll. Just to make sure, I checked to see whether I could get a credit to roll out to the April 21st 40 short call "as is" and receive a credit -- no dice. Alternatively, I looked at how much a strike improvement would cost to roll from the March 17th 40 to the April 21st 41 to see whether I could sell a short put vert against for a credit which would exceed the cost of the roll; I wasn't happy with where I'd have to setup the short put vert to do that (basically, I'd roll into an inverted iron condor setup; far less than ideal).
As compared to a covered call: everything is "upside down" with a covered put: (a) you're looking to increase your cost basis in your short shares by selling puts against them; (b) if price finishes below your short by at expiry, your short shares get called away; and (c) you work to roll the short put out for duration and credit, attempting to keep it clear of current price action until you can exit the whole setup profitably. Here's I'm just looking to mitigate loss from the original broken trade or, ideally, get back to scratch.
i dont trade equitynot my normal setup but there is a lot of confluence for this gap to close, watch for the break and correction
TRADE IDEA: ATVI FEB 17TH 34/38.5/40/44.5 IRON CONDORATVI announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the NY sesh ... . Its implied volatility rank is >70%, and its background volatility is on the cusp of 50% ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 50%*
Max Profit: $231/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $219/contract
Theta: 11.33/contract
Delta: -2.47/contract
BE's: 36.19/42.31
Notes: * -- The body of this is so narrow such that it's almost an iron fly; hence, the piss poor POP%. I considered doing the standard 20-delta iron condor here, but just couldn't squeeze out enough credit to satisfy me. I'll basically look to treat it like an iron fly, and look to take it off at 25% max profit.
Activision Blizzard - New High expected NASDAQ:ATVI
Activision Blizzard released "Legion" this year for World of Warcraft. As seen on the past view add-ons after the release we got a dropdown because the expectations were better than we got. At the end
the subscriptions get lower and lower.
Right now Blizzard delivered what they said, and sure not all is working well, like the PVP system a lot of people complaining about but we still will keep a good amount of subscriptions and get new subscribers or subscribers which are coming
back with Patch 7.2 .
For Diabolo I think we can expect a paid addon/extension in the next view years. People still excite each season, so I highly expect here an increase of sales when that is coming out. The same expectation I have for Overwatch. This game got us a huge amount of sales in 2017, and if they place some new things in a paid store or so, we can expect a new high again.
What makes me a bit angry about that is that Blizzard is not lowering price for Character Boosts on World of Warcraft. People need to pay 50€ to get 100. A lot of people complaining about that. I think it would be better to give boost for free but then sell
XP boosts over the shop for like ten bucks for 24 hours or so. But they also could lower the price of the boost to 15-25 € and so people would pay more often that boost because they then can play a lot more classes.
We also can expect the second movie of Warcraft which should get Wow Players into the cinemas
So my opinion is we will see now January 2017 maybe still a bit of drawdown to 33.00 but then when 7.2 is released and the first news released about the Abonnements etc. we will get a new high. I expect to hit over 60.00 by the end of the year.
Momentum pickup after healthy consolidation.FUNDAMENTALLY SOLID
- A global leader in its sector
- Sector with significant growth potential: Gaming
- Consensus very bullish with a BUY recommendation
- Average target upside of 30%
- Has consolidated some 20% since the historical high
- Consolidation partially due to earnings disappointment
- Market likely to have since revised estimates down
- Positive earnings surprise to come?
TECHNICALLY RECOVERING
- Long term uptrend still in place
- Short term positive since rebound at 35
- Recent volume pickup on the upside
- Triangle consolidation formation currently in place
PLAIN VANILLA LONG
- Look for a breakout of the triangle at 37.5/38.0 for strength confirmation
- Play long earnings exposure (Feb 9)
- Up levels: 37.50 / 39.00 / 40.00 / 41.00
- Down levels: 36.80 / 36.00 / 35.00 / 33.50
- Buy here, target 45, stop loss 35, RR +3.23x
Should You Add Activision Blizzard (ATVI) to Your Portfolio?The ATVI stock is a share in the ownership of Activision Blizzard, Inc., an American interactive gaming and entertainment company. Yet another tech stock we have added to our portfolio here at Invest Diva . Because, we are geeks. So if you wanna get geeky with us, let's conduct the IDDA approach on the ATVI stock to see where we stand.
1- Fundamentals
First things first, let's learn a bit about Activision Blizzard and their ATVI stock. They sure do have a cool name.
Who the heck are they?
Are you one of THOSE people who love Candy Crush? Guess what, Activision Blizzard acquired the maker of Candy Crush and home of 544 million monthly active users, King Digital Entertainment, back in 2016. So now they are officially a distributor of this ultra addictive game. Basically, they are turning into the gamer's dreamland. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California, Activision Blizzard, Inc., is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers.
Besides Candy Crush, their franchise includes some of the strongest franchises in all of entertainment, including World of Warcraft®, StarCraft®, Diablo®, Hearthstone®, Heroes of the Storm™, Overwatch™, Call of Duty®, Skylanders® and Destiny® among others.
What are they doing differently?
Simply put, the Candy Crush owner is crushing it. Both Nintendo and Activision Blizzard achieved above $5 billion in revenue last year. However, that's where the relationship stops. When comparing recent profitability and growth, Nintendo's valuation relative to Activision Blizzard seems a bit out of whack.
In addition to Candy Crush makers, Activision Blizzard also owns four of the top 10 games on the latest consoles, including Call of Duty: Black Ops III. Blizzard users were up 23% year over year in its latest quarter. The company also notes that gamers on its platforms spent 42 billion hours in 2016, higher or in line with Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and all of the major U.S. professional sports leagues combined.
At the time of writing this article, ATVI stock market cap stands at 29.05B, versus Nintendo's 24.67B.
What's going on in their company structure?
Their CEO is 53-year-old Robert A. Kotick, who has been a director of Activision Blizzard since February 1991. His 2015 compensation was around $32,788,722. Neat.
Earnings Date: Feb 9, 2017
2- Long Term Technical Analysis
ATVI stock has been trading on the markets since June 1983. After a massive crash, it mainly remained a penny stock for almost 20 years. It wasn't until November 2004 that the share price broke above the key resistance of 4.15. Ever since, ATVI stock has turned into a growing stock, seeing the all-time high of 45.57 in August 2016.
Naturally, the market pulled back after hitting this level. It bottomed out again in December 2016, forming a Doji candle on the monthly chart, followed by a Bullish Engulfing in January 2017. It still remains above the monthly Ichimoku cloud, and is supported by the 23% Fibonacci retracement level at 34.85.
3- Market Sentiment
Read full article here .
