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My old forecasts on BItcoin price#BTC #USDT In the longer term (5+ years), Bitcoin has the potential to become a global reserve asset, competing with traditional financial systems. If it continues to gain mainstream acceptance and its limited supply becomes more recognized as a hedge against inflation, Bitcoin could reach unprecedented highs. Price projections could see Bitcoin's value surpassing $200,000 or even approaching $500,000, depending on global economic shifts, the evolution of blockchain technology, and the overall state of the financial markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Volkonskiy_
1
Bitcoin Stays True to “Uptober” with 11% Pop. What Happens Next?Bitcoin BTC/USD saw elevated demand in October as the surge nearly led to a new all-time high. Now the looming US election on November 5 is shaping up as a catalyst for growth, depending on who gets to become President of the United States. Bullishness is in the air. The OG token — Bitcoin BTC/USD — pumped hard in yet another October. Staying true to the “Uptober” tradition , BTC added 11% over the month, kicking it all the way up to more than $73,000 , just a few hundred bucks shy of its record high logged in March . The powerful surge is now taking a breather with prices diving back under the $70,000 threshold. But not for long, according to some analysts who are already living post November 5. What’s that? It’s the biggest event of the year — economically, politically, and … cryptolitically ? Gloves on, bell rings, the main event is here — in the blue corner is Democrat Kamala Harris facing her red-shorts opponent, Republican Donald Trump. The current Vice President and the former President are squaring up for the top spot in American politics. And both have vastly differing viewpoints on crypto. If we were to play favorites, it’s fair to say that Donald Trump is winning the hearts of the crypto faithful. Throughout his rallying and campaigning, he’s made it clear that he believes in Bitcoin’s growth potential. What’s more, he’s embraced digital assets in general and wants to see the market thrive in the world’s biggest economy. The promises don’t stop there. Trump has vowed to make the US the “crypto capital of the world” and dig out all the remaining Bitcoins from within US grounds. He also pledged to set up a Bitcoin strategic reserve and fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who is seen as a roadblock to future crypto growth. Hence the so-called “Trump trade,” which has been propelling the orange coin to higher places. On the other end of the spectrum is Kamala Harris who has adopted a warm, but not that warm stance toward crypto. She’s all about casting a sweeping regulatory framework over the industry. The Democratic candidate has vowed to “encourage innovative technologies” like digital assets. Still better than President Joe Biden’s crackdown on the sector. More interestingly, Trump has recruited a key player on his team. Elon Musk, the world’s richest guy (depending on the day) and CEO of Tesla TSLA , is a major donor to Trump’s campaign. He is looking to potentially get employed by the government as head of — can you guess? — Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE (a nod to Musk’s beloved coin). "I will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government," Trump said at a rally back in September. “I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is needed,” the eccentric billionaire wrote on his X platform . How is that bullishness trickling into the markets? Besides the obvious price leap, options traders are ramping up their bets for $80,000 Bitcoin by the end of November. Implied volatility on November 5 is elevated — BTC options flag a 30% chance of a 10% swing in the price. Stay cool, stay ready. On the ETFs front, exchange-traded funds that hold genuine Bitcoin and offer spot trading pulled in around $4 billion of net new money in October. The biggest winner of all 11 spot BTC ETFs is the BlackRock-owned iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds more than $26 billion in assets. Traders broadly (not just the crypto space) may be pricing in a Trump victory and scooping up some of the assets that are likely to do well under his term. But while Trump is ahead in prediction markets, he’s neck-and-neck with Harris in the national polls, making Election Day all the more uncertain. With that said, Bitcoin is up 57% on the year, outperforming other large-cap assets, such as gold XAU/USD , up 35% in a stellar year of its own , and the S&P 500 SPX , up 20% year to date, also enjoying lots of buying appetite . Whose side are you on and do you think we'll see a huge swing in the price of Bitcoin come November 5? Share your thoughts below!
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
18
9740.1 PERCENTAGE IN POINTS (PIPS) =$85k This is a long position and I’m using pips by measurement: What is a pip in cryptocurrency trading? Pips are the units used to measure movement in the price of a cryptocurrency, and refer to a one-digit movement in the price at a specific level. So, if we are trading BTC/USD, for example, and the pair is quoted to the second decimal place, the smallest change will be worth 0.01 USD, or that is the pip value per unit for the pair. If it is quoted to the 4th decimal place, then 1 pip (or the smallest change) will be 0.0001 USD. New traders are recommended to enter on a PULLBACK around the FWB:67K otherwise there is a NEW MOON, BULL detection has confirmed entry, and there is a 1D TF BULL PRINT OUT which was confirmed since last week. All trading comes with dips while making its way up to destination as long as TA has been confirmed BULLISH which I’ve given many reasons why it’s BULLISH. After a volatility contraction comes a small dip with a BULL RUN. This are pips calculated by measurement by using ATR which equals out to $85k.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
10
MicroStrategy Purchases 27,200 BTC Worth Over $2Bln, $BTC up 2%In a bold move signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s future, MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 27,200 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , worth over $2 billion, bringing their total Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 279,420 BTC. This acquisition further solidifies MicroStrategy’s position as one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, placing them ahead of many major institutions in the digital asset space. As Bitcoin continues to break new highs, the company is not only seeing massive unrealized profits but also positioning itself as a key player in the ongoing adoption of Bitcoin. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy: More Than Just an Investment MicroStrategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, has long been a proponent of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), often emphasizing the digital asset’s potential as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. With their latest purchase, MicroStrategy has made it clear that their bullish stance on Bitcoin remains unwavering. At an average purchase price of $42,692 per CRYPTOCAP:BTC , MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin investment has now exceeded $11.9 billion. With Bitcoin trading at new all-time highs, the company is currently sitting on an unrealized profit of over $10 billion. Saylor’s announcement not only highlights MicroStrategy’s commitment to Bitcoin but also demonstrates the company’s strategic approach to accumulating Bitcoin, especially during market downturns or periods of consolidation. But it's not just about the numbers. MicroStrategy’s commitment to Bitcoin is a reflection of a larger trend among institutional investors. The company’s purchase of Bitcoin continues to position it as the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder globally, behind only Satoshi Nakamoto, Binance, BlackRock, and Grayscale. What sets MicroStrategy apart, however, is its position as the top Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies, owning a significant 1.2% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook: Poised for Growth As of the time of writing, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has risen 1.56%, marking a continuation of the bullish trend that has dominated the market in recent weeks. While Bitcoin is already trading at elevated levels, the technical indicators suggest that the digital asset’s rally may be far from over. One of the most notable patterns on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price chart is the falling wedge formation. A falling wedge is typically seen as a bullish continuation pattern, indicating that despite recent price declines, the asset is setting up for a significant upward move. The RSI is currently at 78, signaling that Bitcoin is in overbought territory, yet this doesn’t necessarily mean a price reversal is imminent. In fact, the overbought condition could be a reflection of the strength and momentum behind Bitcoin’s bullish movement, with room for further growth. Additionally, Bitcoin has formed a golden cross pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This is widely considered a highly bullish signal, historically associated with major price rallies. With these key technical indicators in play, CRYPTOCAP:BTC looks poised to break past the $90,000 level, a price target that seems increasingly achievable given the current market conditions. Global Economic Shifts and Bitcoin’s Growing Role What’s perhaps most significant about Bitcoin’s current trajectory is how its role is evolving on the global stage. As more institutions and corporate players like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), it’s clear that Bitcoin is no longer seen solely as a speculative asset but as a legitimate store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty. The increasing adoption of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) by both institutional and retail investors has already begun to shift perceptions of the digital asset. The current economic climate, characterized by rising inflation, volatile fiat currencies, and increasing geopolitical tensions, has created a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s rise. As traditional markets struggle with inflationary pressures, Bitcoin's limited supply and decentralized nature are becoming more attractive to investors seeking a stable and predictable asset. MicroStrategy’s latest acquisition comes at a time when Bitcoin is nearing new all-time highs, and the company’s strategic positioning in the market reinforces the broader trend of institutional confidence in Bitcoin. As one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy continues to lead the charge, and its actions signal to other institutions that now may be the time to accumulate Bitcoin. What’s Next for Bitcoin and MicroStrategy? With Bitcoin showing signs of further bullish movement, many are wondering just how high CRYPTOCAP:BTC can go in this current market cycle. With the support of key technical patterns, such as the falling wedge and golden cross, and MicroStrategy's unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, the stage is set for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach new heights in the coming months. The path ahead may still be volatile, but the overall trend remains overwhelmingly bullish. As the world becomes more familiar with Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) and its potential, both the institutional and retail sectors are likely to continue increasing their exposure to the digital asset. The combination of strong institutional support, favorable technical indicators, and Bitcoin’s role as a global store of value suggests that CRYPTOCAP:BTC could be on the verge of breaking through the $90,000 barrier—and possibly even higher. For investors, traders, and institutions, MicroStrategy’s latest acquisition is a signal of what’s to come: Bitcoin is not just a speculative investment but a powerful asset in today’s global economy. With a growing number of institutional players following in MicroStrategy’s footsteps, the future of Bitcoin has never looked brighter. Conclusion MicroStrategy’s latest purchase of 27,200 BTC underscores the company’s continued belief in the long-term potential of Bitcoin. With the company now holding nearly 280,000 BTC and seeing significant unrealized profits, it’s clear that their Bitcoin strategy is paying off. As CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues to rise, MicroStrategy’s position as the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin sets a precedent for other companies to follow suit. With Bitcoin's technical indicators suggesting further growth, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is primed for a bullish rally, and MicroStrategy’s strategic move could mark just the beginning of a broader institutional shift toward Bitcoin.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Will BTCUSD’s Breakout Lead to a $90K Target?CRYPTO:BTCUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current Price: 71,149.92 Bullish Indicators • Cup and Handle Pattern • Descending Broadening Wedge Key Levels • Strong Pivot Level: 62,500 • Ultimate Resistance: 75,000.00 • Primary Price Target: 90,000.00 Cup and Handle Pattern (Weekly Chart) On the weekly chart, BTCUSD has formed a Cup and Handle pattern—a classic bullish continuation pattern suggesting renewed buying interest after a period of consolidation. The rounded bottom of the cup indicates strong accumulation, while the handle represents a temporary consolidation before the next upward move. Based on the measured depth of the cup, we find a potential long-term price projection around 120,000.00, aligning with broader bullish expectations in the current trend. Descending Broadening Wedge (Daily Chart) Zooming in on the daily chart, the handle section has formed a Descending Broadening Wedge. This pattern is another bullish indicator, often signaling potential for a breakout to the upside as it nears completion. Importantly, the price has recently broken the upper trendline of the wedge, reinforcing the likelihood of an upward movement. Based on our measurement of this wedge, we set a mid-term price target of 90,000.00, supporting the broader bullish outlook indicated by the Cup and Handle. Monitor Key Support and Resistance Levels: The strong pivot at 62,500 serves as a critical support level. Sustained movement above this level reinforces the bullish case. Resistance Checkpoints: Price momentum toward the ultimate resistance at 75,000.00 will be crucial to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend toward the primary target of 90,000.00. Happy Trading! For timely updates and additional insights, follow us to stay informed on BTCUSD’s next moves.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SpicyPips
The power of 3rd (or 6th) attempts🚀💥 Bitcoin Breaks or Fakes? Eyeing the 79K Target! 💡💰 Hey everyone, it's been a while! If you've missed my voice, let's dive right back into it and see what Bitcoin has been cooking up. The BTC price has been flirting with the $66,320 level, hitting it for the sixth time now, as seen on the descending channel. Historically, the third and sixth attempts have shown the highest chances of a breakout, so is this the moment we’ve been waiting for? If Bitcoin does break out this time, we could be looking at a potential rise to $79,000. While there are some mild resistances around 69K, 70K, and 71K, the major target remains 79K. The exchange reserve data shows a significant drop, indicating fewer people are moving Bitcoin to exchanges to sell—an encouraging sign that could be pointing toward a potential rally to new highs. Zooming into the 15-minute chart, we’ve seen two rejections after hitting resistance. However, the third attempt, if successful, could trigger the next leg up. On the downside, we have solid support at $65,322 that has been tested, and buyers seem ready to jump back in below the 60K mark. I’m bullish on Bitcoin and keeping an eye on this breakout. If it happens today, we could be well on our way to $79,000. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! I’ll keep you posted on the latest developments. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
3
November 12 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello It's a Bitcoinguide. If you have a "follower" You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections. If my analysis is helpful, Please would like one booster button at the bottom. This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart. There is no Nasdaq indicator announcement today There is a very high possibility of sideways movement. After reaching the short-term target price yesterday Depending on the situation today, additional adjustments may continue to be connected after tomorrow. *When the blue finger moves Long->Short switching This is a short position strategy. 1. 85,692 dollars long position entry section / cut-off price when the green support line is broken When the green support line touches the 2nd section This is where the short-term pattern breaks, and there is also the possibility of additional adjustments And when the previous high is broken, it is also a whipsaw condition. 2. 92407.5 dollars short position switching / stop loss price autonomous (Since it is currently a section that cannot be drawn, try drawing it according to the newly created resistance line.) The purple finger 88.7K at the top is a strong downward section today, and up to the 1st section touch is a sideways market. From the bottom, it becomes the 1+4 section, but since it is the second arrival, the adjustment may continue to be long. Up to this point, I ask that you simply refer to and use my analysis and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price. Thank you.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitCoinGuide
Crypto Options Trading: A Beginner's GuideCrypto options trading is emerging as a popular way for traders to hedge risk, amplify profits, and diversify their trading strategies. As the cryptocurrency market matures, options trading is gaining traction among both traditional and crypto-native traders who seek a new way to leverage the volatility of digital assets. Here’s an in-depth look at what crypto options are, why they’re compelling, and how to navigate this evolving market. What Are Crypto Options? In simple terms, a crypto option is a financial contract that gives the trader the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset (like Bitcoin or Ethereum) at a predetermined price, known as the “strike price,” within a specific time frame. Options can either be: Call Options: These give the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price. Put Options: These allow the holder to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. Crypto options can be a valuable tool to manage risk in a market characterized by high volatility. The premium paid for an option can be significantly lower than the outright purchase of the cryptocurrency, allowing traders to gain exposure with limited capital at risk. Why Trade Crypto Options? The benefits of trading crypto options go beyond just leveraging price movements. Here are some core reasons why crypto options have become attractive: Hedging: Options allow investors to hedge against adverse price movements. For example, a Bitcoin holder can buy put options to offset potential losses if Bitcoin’s price drops. Leverage: Options provide leverage, allowing traders to control a large position with relatively small capital. This magnifies potential gains, though it also increases potential losses. Profit in All Market Conditions: Options strategies can be designed for various market conditions—bullish, bearish, or even sideways. This flexibility can be a game-changer in the highly volatile crypto market. Limited Downside Risk: When buying options, the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, making it a potentially safer way to speculate than futures or spot trading. Key Terms in Crypto Options Trading Before diving into trading strategies, it's essential to understand the core terms: Premium: The cost of purchasing the option, which the buyer pays to the seller. Strike Price: The predetermined price at which the option can be exercised. Expiration Date: The date at which the option contract expires. In-the-Money (ITM): When an option has intrinsic value. For example, a call option is ITM if the underlying asset’s price is above the strike price. Out-of-the-Money (OTM): When an option has no intrinsic value. For example, a put option is OTM if the asset’s price is above the strike price. Mention the key terms related to the option shown in the image below. Types of Crypto Options Crypto options primarily fall into two types: American Options: These can be exercised at any time before expiration. European Options: These can only be exercised at expiration. Most crypto exchanges offering options (such as CoinCall, Binance) focus on European-style options due to their simplicity and cost efficiency. Popular Crypto Options Trading Strategies Long Call: This involves buying a call option when you expect the price to rise. The upside potential is unlimited, while the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. Long Put: Ideal for bearish outlooks, buying a put option allows you to profit from a price decline. Again, the maximum risk is limited to the premium. Covered Call: For this, you hold a long position in the asset and sell a call option. This generates income through the premium while capping potential gains if the price rises beyond the strike price. Protective Put: Similar to a stop-loss, a protective put allows you to hold a long position while buying a put option to protect against downside risk. Straddle: A strategy for high volatility, a straddle involves buying a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration. Profits occur if the price moves significantly in either direction. Strangle: Like a straddle but with different strike prices for the call and put options. It’s a good strategy if you expect volatility but aren’t sure of the direction. Risks of Crypto Options Trading While crypto options trading provides flexibility, it comes with risks: Volatility Risk: Crypto markets are highly volatile, and while this is favorable for some options strategies, extreme fluctuations can result in significant losses. Liquidity Risk: Not all crypto options have high liquidity, especially for less popular assets. This can lead to wider spreads and difficulty in executing trades at desired prices. Complexity: Options trading requires a deep understanding of various strategies and how options prices react to market changes. Without adequate knowledge, traders can incur losses. Time Decay: Options lose value as expiration approaches (especially for OTM options). This phenomenon, known as “theta decay,” can erode potential profits if the market doesn’t move favorably soon enough. Key Metrics in Crypto Options: The “Greeks” To understand the dynamics of options pricing, traders should familiarize themselves with the “Greeks,” which measure the sensitivity of the option’s price to various factors. Delta: Measures how much the option’s price changes with a $1 change in the underlying asset’s price. Gamma: Measures the rate of change of delta over time. Theta: Represents time decay, showing how much value the option loses each day as it nears expiration. Vega: Measures the sensitivity of the option’s price to changes in volatility. Rho: Indicates how much the option’s price changes with a change in interest rates, which is often minimal in the crypto space. Crypto options trading provides a valuable addition to a trader’s toolkit, offering flexibility and an alternative way to profit from market volatility. Whether you’re looking to hedge a position, profit from volatility, or speculate with defined risk, crypto options can be highly beneficial. Yet, success in options trading doesn’t come from guesswork; it requires a solid understanding of the mechanics, diligent strategy testing, and constant risk assessment. For those who put in the time to learn and adapt, crypto options trading can open new avenues for profit in an ever-evolving market.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
Bitcoin the Dominatrix: Leading the Crypto Charge💥👑 Bitcoin the Dominatrix: Leading the Crypto Charge 📈⚡️ Hello everyone! Bitcoin is asserting its dominance yet again! Following a period of geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin has not only held steady but has begun pushing through resistance near $69,000, underscoring its strength and growing market share compared to altcoins. Dominance Highlights: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Bitcoin is up 1.43%, while Ethereum lags at 0.49%, and altcoins overall are down 0.9%. This trend reflects Bitcoin’s expanding “dominatrix” role in the crypto space, capturing a larger slice of the market with every price rally. Safe Haven Status: Like gold, which is also hitting new highs, Bitcoin is behaving as a safe-haven asset, especially appealing in volatile times. Investors continue to favor it for stability, and its price action is suggesting a potential next target of $79,000, with further levels to monitor. Future Price Potential: As we look toward 2024, Bitcoin’s path may lead it to all-time highs, with targets of $115,000 and even $160,000 on the horizon, as post-election market movements often fuel further growth. Bitcoin’s strength is undeniable, but resistance levels should be watched closely for those trading this wave. With each step, Bitcoin solidifies its role as the leader in crypto. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Charts: Bitcoin Dominance 15m : Bitcoin Dominance 4h: Bitcoin: Alts Total3:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
1
Momentum is shifting into overdrive: BULL RUN detected! "Bitcoin seems set for another bull run" Trend Detector Channels Explained: Algo Channel: This channel uses volatility to shape dynamic bounds around a moving average. Premier Channel: Range Detection, Calculates the highest high and lowest low over a defined channel span. Volatility Gauge: Leverages ATR to monitor volatility shifts. Trend Strength: A strong trend emerges when ATR exceeds a certain threshold. If ATR is above half of that level, the trend is 'medium.' Anything below is 'weak.' Interestingly, the Algo Plotter has flashed two bullish confirmations, which are independent of stochastics and distinctly plotted. Historical Patterns Reflecting on historical patterns, there’s a timeline from the start of Wave 2 to its ATH, which I’m comparing to the current Wave 4. If they’re in sync, we might have about five candles left. But, given the setup, I suspect we’ll see a unique twist this time around." ATR "This configuration compresses a 14-day time frame into a 4-hour snapshot. I realigned the ATR lines to bring the full 14-day scope into focus within this compact view. With two entry points, there’s flexibility to catch the move—whether you missed the first or prefer waiting for confirmation on the second. Two profit targets round it out, providing smart checkpoints for capturing gains." 1 2 3 pattern "The current bull market is set to culminate on 12/31/26, marking the transition into a bear phase that may extend for roughly six years."
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
11
Hidden Bullish Divergence: History in the MakingWe’re looking at a hidden divergence here, but what does it mean-bearish or bullish? Let’s analyze. In this case, we see the candlestick pattern showing a low followed by a higher low, while the RSI shows a low followed by an even lower low. This setup indicates strength beneath the surface, pointing to a hidden bullish divergence. Essentially, while price action suggests a slight downtrend, the RSI reveals underlying buying pressure, hinting at a potential bullish move ahead. “There are two volatility contractions, each nearly aligned with two dark pool signals, forming a similar pattern.”
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
37
Presidential Elections impact on Dollar and BitcoinThe U.S. dollar is key in global finance. It's used in trade and as a reserve currency. Presidential elections can greatly affect the dollar's strength. Changes in leadership and policy expectations lead to currency swings. These swings show how markets view future economic stability and policies. Historical Trends: Presidential Elections and Dollar Volatility Presidential elections bring uncertainty to markets. Investors try to guess how the election will affect policy and interest rates. This uncertainty makes the dollar more volatile. Here is how the DXY moved after the last 4 elections Price action suggests that we could go higher short-term, then down. However, Im not trying to predict anything now. I would rather wait and then do my classic trading setups as usual. Volatility can happen before and after an election. It depends on the clear result and policies the new administration will follow. Election Cycles and Currency Movements: The dollar is more volatile during election years. But, this effect varies based on market expectations of each candidate's policies. Historical Examples: In 2016, Donald Trump's win made the dollar rise at first. This was because of his pro-business policies. But, the 2008 election led to uncertainty and a weaker dollar. Factors That Influence the Dollar During Elections Several things affect the dollar during elections. These include: Economic Policy Outlook: Markets watch candidates' economic plans. Policies that boost growth, like tax cuts, help the dollar. Trade and Foreign Relations: Candidates' views on trade and foreign relations matter a lot. Protectionist policies might strengthen the dollar but could harm growth in the long run. Federal Reserve Influence: The president's Fed picks shape monetary policy. Markets react to changes in policy, like interest rate shifts, which affect the dollar's value. Market Reactions and Investor Behavior Before an election, investors often wait to see what happens. This makes the dollar move as they adjust their investments. After the election, the dollar's value changes based on the new policies. Currency as a Safe Haven: The dollar is often seen as safe during uncertain times. Even with U.S. risks, investors might choose the dollar for its stability. Impact of Policy Announcements: The dollar's immediate reaction depends on the winning candidate's policy plans. Big spending plans can lead to inflation, weakening the dollar over time. If we check COT data we can see that Non-comercials as well as commercials are both around 50/50 hedged. Empirical Data and Case Studies Studies show different effects of elections on the dollar, based on the economy: 2016 Presidential Election: The dollar rose after Trump's win due to his economic plans. These plans were seen as good for growth, leading to a positive dollar reaction. 2020 Presidential Election: After Biden's win, the dollar fell. This was because of expected big spending and low interest rates, which could cause inflation. 2024 Presidential Election: From a technical perspective, COT and seasonal tendencies. I think we could see push up but then the dollar is set for the deep dive. While Bitcoin has only been around since 2009, it has already experienced several U.S. elections with discernible impacts: 2016 Presidential Election: The lead-up to and aftermath of the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump take office, coincided with an increase in Bitcoin's price. The market anticipated regulatory easing and lower corporate taxes, creating a favourable environment for risk assets. Additionally, there was heightened uncertainty in global markets, leading some investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge. 2020 Presidential Election: The 2020 election was accompanied by heightened political tension and economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After Joe Biden’s victory, Bitcoin surged, with many investors perceiving the incoming administration’s stimulus policies as likely to increase inflation risks. This led to a major inflow of institutional investment into Bitcoin, pushing it toward new all-time highs. This can also be positive for the Bitcoin. Overall I think the impact will be just short term, whoever wins we will see a rally as the global liquidity is rising and it's the main driver for the bitcoin Long-term Implications The long-term dollar impact of elections depends on policy changes. Initial reactions can be strong, but lasting effects are rare. They happen only if new policies significantly change the economy or global trade. Conclusion The U.S. presidential election has a big impact on the dollar. This is due to market feelings, policy hopes, and the economy's state. Even though short-term ups and downs are usual, the dollar's long-term fate hinges on the new administration's actions and the economy's performance. Knowing how these factors work helps investors and policymakers. They can better prepare for and adjust to changes in currency markets during election times. Thanks for reading Dave FX Hunter
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Dave-Hunter
3