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Univers Of Signals Academy | Risk to Reward👋 Welcome to Univers Of Signals Channel! Let’s dive into another educational segment. After discussing capital management and risk management, we now turn to one of the most crucial concepts before entering technical analysis: Risk to Reward! 📌 Understanding Risk-to-Reward in Real Life Before we start, let me give you an example of risk to reward from the real world, outside of financial markets. Imagine you are considering investing in a startup technology company that has launched a new product. Risk: You estimate that you might lose $500 of your investment due to uncertainty about the product's success and intense market competition. Reward: However, if the product succeeds and the company grows, you could make a profit of up to $2000. In this example, the risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4, meaning for every $1 at risk, you could earn $4 in reward. This ratio can help you decide if this investment is appealing. If you believe the risk is acceptable and the potential reward is valuable, you might choose to invest. ⚠️ The Reality of Risk-to-Reward in Trading In the real world, if you are a logical person, we all adhere to risk to reward principles. However, it’s puzzling how, in financial markets, you often close your profitable trades as quickly as possible while staying in losing trades for months. This indicates a failure to adhere to risk to reward principles. Before I explain risk management and related concepts, make sure you've viewed the previous sections on risk management and capital management. Remember, if you're not setting stop-loss orders, this lesson might not be very useful for you. 🔍 What is Risk-to-Reward in Trading? In financial markets, risk to reward refers to the ratio between the level of risk an investor takes with a specific investment and the potential reward from that investment. This concept helps investors evaluate whether a particular investment is worth the risk. When trading, if you are about to open a position, set a stop-loss. If your stop-loss is triggered, resulting in a $10 loss, your target profit should be at least $20, creating a risk to reward ratio of 2. I won’t open a position with less than this! It's important to note that risk to reward alone doesn't hold much meaning. It gains significance when considered alongside win rate. The chart I will share clarifies the relationship between win rate and risk to reward. Look at the chart below. If your risk to reward is 1 and your win rate is 50%, you are breaking even—neither gaining nor losing. For risk to reward ratios below 1, you need a win rate of 100% to break even. Our logical risk to reward ratio is 2, where a 40% win rate keeps you profitable. We should allow our minds room for error rather than always striving for accuracy. 🛠️ Understanding Trading Tools Let’s take a simple look at our tools. The chart showcases two types of tools: short position and long position, applicable for both falling and rising markets. The tool displays your risk to reward ratio in the middle, with the stop-loss percentage below and the profit percentage above for long positions, and vice versa for short positions. 📈 Why Should You Use a Risk-to-Reward of 2? Why do you implement a risk to reward of 2? Consider this: if I opened 10 positions this week, with 6 hitting stop-loss and 4 reaching targets, my total loss would be $60. However, due to adhering to a risk to reward ratio of 2, my total profit would be $80, resulting in a net gain of $20! This illustrates the importance of adhering to risk to reward principles. Even if we lose more trades than we win, we can still be profitable in the end. The key is to focus on the overall outcome rather than individual battles. ❌ What Happens If You Don’t Maintain a Standard Risk-to-Reward? Now, consider what happens if I don’t maintain a standard risk to reward. For instance, if I open a position with a risk to reward ratio of 0.5, even if I make a profit, a subsequent loss could negate that gain. If you are involved in financial spaces, you may have encountered signal channels that share their positions, encouraging you to follow for profitable outcomes. For example, if they claim to profit from 95 out of 100 positions, you might feel that winning sensation. But what is their risk to reward ratio? A ratio of 0.1 means that if they hit just a few stop-losses, you could end up in a loss. Be cautious of misleading advertisements and high-return claims. If you manage to achieve a 5% to 10% profit monthly and sustain it for a year, even starting with $100, your trading record will be respected, leading to more funding opportunities. Avoid falling into traps set by opportunistic individuals. 🚀 Practical Trading Considerations Consider this: if you want to open a position but your target is above a major resistance level, and the likelihood of reaching it seems slim, I personally prefer not to open that position. It indicates that my entry point may not be optimal. ❤️ Friendly Note In closing, I encourage you to keep your positions until you reach your risk to reward target. Avoid checking the chart until you hit that point. Set alerts and make decisions only then. Always adhere to these rules for all your positions, not just one. Don’t worry about losing out on profits; instead, approach trading with calmness. Finally, remember that a profit in a position is not truly realized until it is closed and transformed into something tangible—food, clothing, a house, or a car.
by UNIVERSOFSIGNALS
Are you ready for $180,000 Bitcoin?BTC remains firmly bullish, and the market structure continues to align with the Elliott Wave framework, despite short-term volatility. The rounding bottom formation is still in play, and its full potential has yet to unfold. Price has completed sub-wave 4, and we are now awaiting the final leg to complete this mini-cycle before the emergence of the larger macro waves. The broader expectation remains a rally towards $180,000, a level that will likely be reached when market sentiment is at its weakest, as institutions and whales continue accumulating retail sell-offs. Patience is key—stay ahead of the market and play smart.
Long
by weslad
71
Bitcoin transaction analysisBitcoin is still fluctuating and has not yet broken out of the consolidation zone. As long as the price does not close above the resistance level, we cannot expect further gains. Here are two possible scenarios: 1. Bullish scenario: If the price successfully breaks out of the resistance level and closes above it, we can expect the uptrend to continue. 2. Corrective scenario: This scenario seems more likely, with the price retracing to the support level and then starting another upward move. A confirmed breakout of the resistance level would signal further growth, but until then, a return to the support level remains the more likely scenario.
by fyhvfyhv
BTC update - Feb 18 2025Following Feb 5th update, BTC spent the last two weeks forming sideways movement and moving towards the blue trendline. BTC is expected to come in touch with the said trendline during this week and if we see an increase in demand followed by a crossing above the dotted trendline, then we might see BTC heading for higher levels and setting new ATH during March. Crossing the blue trendline followed by a daily close below 89,000 level means, BTC will probably keep dropping towards lower levels.
by AlgoBotTrading
BTC/USDT Daily Analysis: Key Levels and Market TrendsMost Relevant Timeframe for Positioning Given the complexity of the structure and the fact that MTTFI indicates that most short- and medium-term timeframes are trending downward, it may be wise to: • Monitor the 4H or 8H (or even 12H) for a signal indicating the end of the corrective wave. • Use the 1D timeframe to map out key support and resistance levels (e.g., GETTEX:89K / $102K–$105K). • ABC wave structures are particularly visible on short- to medium-term timeframes (1H to 4H). For a more balanced swing trading approach, the 4H timeframe often provides a good middle ground—not too noisy (1H is too fast, 15 min even more so) and not too slow (1D can be delayed). Key Support and Resistance Levels Based on the overall analysis: Major Support Levels • Around $95,950 (often aligns with the Auto AVWAP-Low on 2H-4H), already tested. • $93,000–$92,000: A short-term accumulation zone. • $89,000: A critical pivot point (breaking below it could trigger an extended correction). Main Resistance Levels • $97,100–$98,500: Auto AVWAP-High on 2H/4H/8H, areas BTC must reclaim to move higher. • $102,000–$105,000: A key level frequently referenced (upper resistance, potential “short setup” zone). On the daily timeframe, the Auto AVWAP-High is around $103K. • If surpassed, this would be a strong signal for BTC to retest $109K or even higher. Possible Strategies and Recommendations Short-Term Approach (Scalping/Intraday on 1H–2H) • Look for running flat or regular flat patterns on the B → C wave to enter long on a bounce toward GETTEX:97K –$100K, then potentially short the resistance if technical conditions suggest it. • Monitor RSI/BB, HPI, and Koncorde divergences on 2H–4H to pinpoint more precise entry points. Swing Approach (4H–8H–12H) • Watch the $93K–$95K zone: If BTC holds this level, a rebound to $102K–$105K could follow. • A clear breakdown below GETTEX:89K on a 1D or 12H close would signal a more prolonged correction (potentially lasting weeks or months). Confirmation of a New Bull Run • BTC would need to break decisively above $105K and especially $109K. If this happens, MTTFI would turn green across all timeframes, and sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) could rise toward 0.8–0.9. For now, that scenario remains distant. General Conclusion • Indicators: Still point to an uncertain market, more corrective than bullish on lower and medium timeframes. The daily chart is not entirely bearish but hasn’t confirmed a strong recovery either. • Technical Structure: The current formation suggests an A–B–C structure, possibly a running or regular flat, before the next significant move—either up or down. • Practical Takeaways: • Caution is advised until BTC clearly breaks above GETTEX:97K – GETTEX:98K (and later $102K–$105K). • If the market drops below ~ GETTEX:89K , a multi-month correction is likely. • For shorter-term trades, patterns on the 2H–4H timeframe (with RSI/Koncorde/HPI divergences) will be key to identifying potential rebounds or quick sell opportunities. Overall, the current technical setup suggests that BTC remains in a complex corrective phase, with a possible last rebound (~$102K–$105K) before renewed selling pressure. Key support levels ($95K, GETTEX:92K –$93K, and especially GETTEX:89K ) will be crucial to watch for confirmation or invalidation of this scenario.
by Ox_kali
BTC Market in Limbo: Patience or ActionBTC Analysis & Trading Plan 1. Overall Trend • Longer timeframes (1D, 1W) remain in a structurally bullish trend (short MA still > long MA). • Medium/short timeframes (2H, 4H, 6H) indicate a bearish bias or “lower range.” • Sentiment indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, HPI) are generally in a neutral zone, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. 2. Key Levels • Immediate support: 95-96k (confirmed by lower AVWAP, 3D Heatmap, and Liquidation Map). • Critical weekly support: ~89k. A breakdown of this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 80k-74k. • Short-term resistance: ~98k, followed by the 100-102k zone (short liquidation wall). Beyond that, 105-110k would become a realistic target. 3. ETF Flow & Liquidation • ETF inflows have remained generally positive since late January, providing partial price support. The temporary outflows in mid-February align with the current consolidation. • The 7-Day Liquidation Map confirms a significant number of short stop-losses above 98-99k. A decisive break above 100k could trigger a sharp short squeeze. 4. Best Timeframe for Positioning • Given the volatility on 2H/4H and the lack of a clear trend, the 1D (or possibly 12H) timeframe offers more reliability. On the daily chart, the trend remains technically bullish, but price action is still in lateral correction. • It’s preferable to wait for a daily close above ~98-99k for a more comfortable buying signal. • Alternatively, a pullback to 95-94k could provide a lower entry point (consider a tight stop if 89k breaks). 5. Action Plan Summary • Bullish scenario: If BTC reclaims 98-99k on a daily close, the first target would be 102-105k (AVWAP/heatmap resistance). In case of a short squeeze, 110k is possible. • Bearish scenario: If 95k fails and price drops toward 89k, beware of a liquidation event. A breakdown of the weekly support at 89k could confirm a correction toward 80k, possibly 74k (50 W MA). • Current state: The market is ranging with no strong momentum. Partial accumulation at the lower range (95k) is an option for patient traders, or one can wait for a breakout above 98-99k to trade the trend. Final Thoughts • The market remains structurally bullish but lacks strong momentum. ETF flows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors contribute to this stagnation. • ETF flow data and liquidation maps align with technical observations, confirming a tight consolidation range between 95k and 100k. • In summary: neither extremely bullish nor bearish, but a setup that could persist for several weeks. Key levels to monitor are 95k and 89k as support, 98-100k as resistance. Recommendations • For swing trading or mid-to-long-term entries, the daily timeframe is preferable. Positioning near the 95k support or on a confirmed breakout above 99-100k offers a balanced approach. • Closely monitor ETF inflows (a strong resurgence would confirm a rebound) and liquidation maps (major catalysts for price moves once key thresholds are breached).
by Ox_kali
Range trading I believe the Bitcoin chart is currently undergoing a price correction and liquidity collection phase, presenting a high-risk trading opportunity within the market range. I consider the movement between liquidity points in the CME futures and options market databases to be of great importance in the traders' movement perspective. Following this short trade, I will enter a low-risk long trade with a target of $98,000, after which the price may want to collect the liquidity of $99,800 and perhaps $101,000. However, I will exit the trade after the $98,000 ceiling and wait and see to determine the ceiling of this movement. Currently, however, the micro data show a strong indication of the price's willingness to move towards $92,000 or $88,000. But let us not forget that this market is uncertain and anything can happen with a major news event. So do not forget capital management.
Short
by Bpay13
BTC/USDT "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the BTC/USDT "Bitcoin Tether" Crypto Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : The heist is on! Wait for the breakout of (94000) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell stop below the support line or Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in swing/retest. I highly recommend to use alert in your trading platform. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 97000 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 86500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: The BTC/USDT "Bitcoin Tether" Crypto Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bullishness).., driven by several key factors. 🌟☀ Fundamental Analysis Institutional adoption (e.g., MicroStrategy) remains strong, but ETF outflows (650.8M last week) signal caution. Hash rate near all-time highs supports network security; post-2024 halving supply reduction is a bullish long-term factor. Pro-crypto US regulatory shifts are positive, though global uncertainty persists. 🌟☀ Macro Economics Potential US rate cuts in 2025 could weaken USD, boosting BTC; tighter policy may pressure it. Recession fears in Europe vs. US resilience create mixed risk sentiment; BTC correlates with equities. Geopolitical tensions enhance Bitcoin’s store-of-value appeal. 🌟☀ Commitments of Traders (COT) Data Large speculators slightly net long, showing cautious optimism; no extreme positioning. Hedgers net short, typical for futures; retail longs are moderate, not overcrowded. 🌟☀ On-Chain Analysis Exchange outflows exceed inflows (ratio ~0.98), indicating accumulation. Long-term holders steady, short-term holder realized price at 96,000 acts as support. Whale activity mixed: some profit-taking, but accumulation persists below 97,000. 🌟☀ Market Sentiment Analysis Retail sentiment neutral, cautious on X; no extreme greed or fear. Institutional hesitancy (ETF outflows) offsets professional traders’ accumulation views. 🌟☀ Positioning Support at 96,000, resistance at 98,500-99,000; liquidity pools suggest breakout potential. RSI (~50) neutral, MACD shows fading bearish momentum. 🌟☀ Overall Summary Outlook Short-term: Consolidation between 94,000-100,000, slight upward bias. Medium-term: Bullish if macro aligns (104,000-110,000); downside risk to 90,000. Long-term: Fundamentals favor 120,000 by mid-2025. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
Bitcoin in a critical zone: two possible scenariosSupport Zones: BTC has bounced from QML1 (~$95,500) after testing it as support. A deeper retracement to QML2 (~$94,400) is also possible if the current level fails. Two Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above QML1, it could continue its upward momentum toward $98,778, breaking previous highs. Bearish Scenario: If BTC loses support at QML1, a dip toward QML2 might occur before another potential bounce to the upside. Trading Plan: Long Entry: If BTC confirms support at QML1, targeting $98,778. Wait & See: If BTC dips to QML2, look for reversal signals before entering.
Long
by fyhvfyhv
BTC USDT💰 Bitcoin Technical Outlook – Bullish Reversal in Play? The chart suggests BTC/USDT is forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal. Key Levels to Watch: ♻️ Support: ~$96,000 - Holding above this is crucial for upside continuation. ♻️ Resistance: $99,445, $106,869, and $108,750 - These levels need to break for further bullish confirmation. ⏳ Target: If BTC breaks $108,750, the next leg up could reach $123,633! 🚀 A breakout above $99K could trigger momentum towards $108K. If BTC follows the projected path, we could see a strong rally ahead. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation! 📈🔥
Long
by VIPROSE
BTC | NEWS | Abu Dhabi Invests $436.9M in ETFAbu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Company, has made a significant investment in Bitcoin by purchasing $436.9 million in shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This MUST be a clear indicator that they are bullish on BTC, at least for the longer term. Investment firms most commonly invest with the eye on the longer term, and are usually unphased by short term swings like daily or even weekly corrections. This is, if anything, extremely bullish for BTC in the longer term (1 year and possibly beyond). In similar news; the potential of the SEC approving XRP ETF is causing optimism for XRP. XRP has recently made great progress in terms of fundamentals, more on that HERE: ________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
Keep selling Bitcoin!An inverse head & shoulders, with a falling wedge, all great ways to induce buyers into the market once the new week opens. Buyers would consider an immediate drop on the week Bullish. When the weekly opens, it may in fact drop momentarily to 94k to create this pattern and start going back up. This would liquidate weekly open high leverage bears and encourage bulls to open positions. In this scenario, many would lose money, as TP's are unrealistic. Last time the weekly did not liq grab and it dropped, so it would create FOMO shorts this week. Also weekend liquidity still has not been grabbed.
Short
by Subatomic9