Near Term Bitcoin LTF Weakness to Establish HTF TR BottomThe New Year is looking bright for Bitcoin with the most recent report from Franklin Templeton predicting “nations to adopt strategic Bitcoin reserves in 2025.” It should be interesting to see how sustainable it will be for Bitcoin to be a practical method to both store and transfer value, given its TPS limitation as more Nations and Institutions become larger players on the chain. I believe this presents an incredible opportunity for quality POW governance tokens to shine and become a very real complementary alternative.
But I digress – what’s up with Big Daddy Bitcoin and the No Santa Rally?
On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a distribution pattern, forming a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) at a local high of $96,000 to retest the prior local high at $95,400 Bitcoin established after moving into Phase D Distribution of the distribution cycle. True to form in Phase D of a Distribution Cycle, the formation printed the preliminary sign of weakness, dropping to the $91,400 handle before the retest.
The characteristic of Phase D Distribution is a Major Sign of Weakness occurs at the end of Phase D which “Breaks the Ice” of the lower level of support (in this case $90,800). The horizontal price count suggests a potential near-term fall from the current level to the $$86,600 region from a Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), before a relief rally to “Return to Ice” and subsequent Preliminary Support (PS) and Selling Climax (SC) are established.
The positive take should be on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), this PA is all about establishing the bottom of the new Trade Range, which has recently established the $108,300 handle at the upper limit of this Trade Range. Consolidation within this range should happen for a bit to establish both future direction and build cause within the formation to build potential (much like coiling a spring) for the next move.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
