BTCUSD Correction Starts BTC Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Potential Correction Toward the 70–71k Zone
Below is a structured overview of Bitcoin’s price action across Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4H timeframes. The overarching theme is that BTC appears to be rejecting from key channel resistance, suggesting a corrective move could unfold before any renewed upside momentum.
1. Monthly Timeframe
• Ascending Parallel Channel
Since 2021, BTC has been trading within a broad ascending channel. Price recently tagged the upper boundary (around early January) and reacted lower.
• Key Support & Order Blocks
• Monthly Order Blocks: ~25k and ~60k.
• Possible Support Zones: 69k (previous ATH), 60k monthly order block.
• Moving Averages & Indicators
• SMAs (10, 50, 100): All stacked bullishly, but a pullback to the 10 SMA near 76k is possible.
• Bollinger Bands: Price poked above the upper band, hinting at mean reversion toward mid or lower bands (60k–70k).
• RSI & MACD: RSI has slipped below its moving average (bearish signal). MACD remains positive but is curling over, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.
Monthly Conclusion: A multi-month correction could develop after reaching channel resistance. The 60k–70k region stands out as a potential support or inflection zone.
2. Weekly Timeframe
• Rising Channel Since Sept 2023
BTC touched channel resistance again in mid-December (confluence with the monthly channel top) and is now pushing lower toward the channel’s lower boundary (~66k).
• SMA & Ichimoku
• Price has fallen below the 10 SMA. Weekly close below 89k would confirm a break of consolidation support.
• Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish overall, but price is slipping beneath the conversion line (baseline near 80k could be next support).
• Retracement Levels & Order Blocks
• Broke the 0.236 Fib; next key Fibs are 0.382 near 85k and 0.618 near 71k.
• Weekly order block ~68k–71k aligns with potential Fib confluence.
• Momentum Indicators
• Weekly RSI has retreated quickly toward 50. A break below 50 often signals more downside.
• MACD has made a bearish cross (often leads to multi-week or multi-month corrections).
Weekly Conclusion: A drop to at least the 71k zone seems likely if current supports fail. Minimal volume between 88k and 70k suggests a swift move is possible.
3. Daily Timeframe
• Structure & Patterns
• BTC broke down from a rising wedge and slipped below the daily order block at 91k.
• Price is quite oversold on daily RSI (near 30), which may support a short-term bounce.
• Next Steps
• A retest of 92–95k is possible, especially if oversold conditions trigger a relief rally.
• After a bounce, the broader structure still looks poised for a deeper correction toward 70–71k if the rally fails.
Daily Conclusion: Oversold suggests a relief bounce to the mid-90k area, then sellers may resume pressure for a move toward 70–71k.
4H Timeframe (Entry Refinement)
• Momentum
• RSI is heavily oversold, and ADX is high but may be rolling over, indicating bearish momentum is maturing.
• Potential Play
• A short-term bounce to 92k (possibly overshooting to 95k) is plausible. Traders seeking short positions could consider waiting for that bounce to short, targeting 70–71k, with stops placed above the wedge breakdown or a key daily level (e.g., 95–96k).
Overall Trade Idea
1. Short-Term Bounce:
• Entry on a retest of 92–95k.
• Stop above 95–96k to allow for a volatility spike.
2. Downside Targets:
• Primary target at 71k (key weekly Fib & order block confluence).
• Secondary target or extension: 66k or 60k if momentum accelerates.
A close above 96k would invalidate the immediate bearish scenario, suggesting re-entry into the upper channel and potential upside continuation.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis viewpoint, not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately. Markets can invalidate setups, and one should use disciplined stops and position sizing.
Good luck, and stay flexible in your approach!
