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ARKK trade ideas

Talking about Michael Burry's $ARKK betWe all heard that Michael Burry just disclosed his short position in Cathie's ARK fund. I see people take this as personal and sexist and such. My take is this is just simply Michael's bet anticipating the rise of inflation. Inflation mostly damages growth stocks, and Cathie's ARK comprises of growth stocks. Looking in to Scion Asset Management fund, he holds longs such as $GOOGL and $WMT, names that do not care about inflation. In short: Michael Burry plans to take advantage of inflation catalyst and short high growth stocks.
AMEX:ARKK
by kidze
No one buys ARKK tales anymore..!1000% gain in the past 5 years! (Feb 2016-Feb 2021) The monthly Price volume decreased 62% between March and July 2021. ARKK builds bearish patterns in higher (weekly and monthly timeframe) and YTD performance is negative (-6.45%)..! This happened while all major indexes were positive! A non-random walk hypothesis Martin Weber, a leading researcher in behavioral finance, has performed many tests and studies on finding trends in the stock market. In one of his key studies, he observed the stock market for ten years. Throughout that period, he looked at the market prices for noticeable trends and found that stocks with high price increases in the first five years tended to become under-performers in the following five years. Weber and other believers in the non-random walk hypothesis cite this as a key contributor and contradictor to the random walk hypothesis. Falsehood always preferred the tale to the truth— Sir Winston Churchill. Reference Article: www.jstor.org
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Is ARKK and Cathie Woods time up? J.Powells' clock is ticking...Whether it is bitcoin, SPACs, shorted meme stocks, Tesla or other heavily priced in Growth stocks (High Price/Book value), all of these speculative assets have one common factor, that is the cheapness/availability of money. However, this may all change if in the next 2-3 readings inflation pressure are proven to be persistent. Relatively, will be a very in-detail idea, but bear with me. Firstly, before I get into analyzing other factors, as the chart shows, the current risk-reward ratio on ARKK is skewed towards the short side with a strategy of directly shorting ARKK, or buying OTM puts @105 or 80, with a stop-loss at 130. There are several fundamentals reasons for shorting ARKK: 1) The concentrated positions of ARKK into few names ark-funds.com as ARKK is an actively managed fund where on the way down it would become increasingly problematic for Cathie to cut losing positions, with a potential of a self-enforcing liquidity spiral. 2) The largest holdings such as Tesla are priced in heavily above the SPX price/earnings(Forward P/E =115, SPX P/E= current 35, historical 16, price/book value ratios(28 vs 4.7), which is simply unsustainable in terms of future expected returns, unless Tesla takes over the world, which simply won't happen by any stretch of the imagination. Granted there seems to be a trend continuation on Tesla, although it may as well be a trap if the FED changes the current course (a discussion will follow below). 3) In the last few weeks since the IPO of $HOOD, ARKKs correlation to bitcoin futures has been 60%, although historical correlation since 2017 is only 20%. It begs the question as ARKK accumulates more and more names whose value is directly derived from cryptocurrencies (Tesla, Robinhood, Coinbase, SQ and others), is holding ARKK roughly the same as holding bitcoin/cryptos as they are both primarily driven by the same factor? Well it all boils down to understanding the key factor, which as mentioned appears to be the cheapness/availability of money. The question is when will money stop being cheap as it is today? The long drawn out debate will the FED taper, or even worse when will the FED start hiking. To understand how the FED sets their policy, it is based on whether or not they are fulfilling their congress given mandates which are price stability (inflation within target range) and maximum employment (unemployment at or below the long term rate ~5%). Currently based on the spot rates, the market is pricing in that there will be 1 hike in 2020 (Forward 1 year rate in 1 year, ~0.36) and roughly 2 more hikes in 2023. With balance sheet tapering (where the FED unloads bonds to the market in return for cash, or does not buys/tapers as much assets), the current projections are within the start of next year. However, plans may change as they quickly did back in 2019. From this chart it can be clearly observed that during the last policy normalization in 2016 (snipboard.io), the FED only started hiking once unemployment went below 5% (roughly the long term unemployment rate). In a normal environment where the FED isn't trapped by their QE policies, where both inflation and real growth rate are far exceeding their targets as stated by Taylor rule(nominal rates = neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 * (inflation - inflation target ) + 0.5 * (real gdp growth - potential gdp growth), the FED is bound to hike. But they've used the maximum employment "excuse" to not do so. This is why the recent reading where unemployment went down to 5.4% from 5.9% is scary. This meant that the fed is closer to fulfilling their maximum employment mandate, however they are far beyond their inflation target rate of about 2% =>>>> implying higher probability of more earlier hawkish policy to also fulfill the price stability mandate, because they don't have the maximum employment excuse any longer. Based on the recent readings (services PMI 64 vs 60, unemployment and todays inflation) bonds quickly reacted The current 5 year average (breakeven) inflation expectations are back within the inflation target of around 2% (2.5%-forecasting premium ~0.5%, snipboard.io), although this rate can hardly be trusted any longer as the FED holds roughly 1/5 th of the TIPS market. This is my attempt of shortening this long story, which relates to ARKK, as ARKK experienced two drawdowns in March and May of ~-30 to -20% during the last episodes of inflation fears when the 10 year yields went to 1.75%. This suggests that ARKK is extremely sensitive to yields above 1.5% given its growth factor exposure. A yield steepening caused by less quantitative easing and more likely rate hikes, certainly implies a choppy market ahead (at best) where value is gaining above growth (). SPX at these levels has returned nearly 20% for the year 2021 so far (4450/3750 -1 = 18.5% +~2% div yield), which is more than a standard deviation above the average of ~8%. It is simply unsustainable to continue the current fiscal and monetary policy stances that has driven asset prices higher mainly due to the multiples expansion, without mitigating the inflation risks that are bound to appear. Thank you for following along! If you have any questions or points to debate, make sure to leave them in the comments. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels. The QQQs in a wedge : Large caps, SPX futures getting heated up:
AMEX:ARKKShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
ARKK ANALYSIS 13.08.2021Hello Traders, here is a full analysis for this asset. The entry will be taken only, if all rules of your trading plan are satisfied. Therefore I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if all of your rules are satisfied. Leave your thoughts in the comment section, I will reply to every single one of them. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:ARKK
by basictradingtv
ARK Innovation ETF Fund Can Breakout To The UpsideTraders, There is a lot of media ta the moment talking about Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF reportedly seeing record short interest as investors turn against the fund. However if you look at the charts, they tell you a little different story. In fact of the short positions story is correct, we might see a short squeeze. The price is right at the breakout point and from this level, it can move to much levels in the fcp zone. So watch the current levels and look for indications on the chart. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
AMEX:ARKKLong
by vikinsa
6
ArkkHad a bullish break of an ascending traingle. Ripped up close to my resiatnce of 127.75. Came back and is currectntlnbacktestinf breakout. If we hold above 122.56 we will be golden for another test of 130-132.50. Target is 133. Any closes and holds above 130s would Be gearing us up for 160s. If we lost 122$ then 118 is solid support. If we lost 117 next level is 109 however I would be very bearish from here on out if we cannot hold this as support. This is a big opportunity for arkk to rip to new highs !
AMEX:ARKK
by Erictaylor
ARKK - An Innovation in How Not To PositionKUH KUH Woods is either the worlds worst rotational Trader or in on it. Possibly Both. Buying Small Cap Spec Junk with no real Liquidity only to bail on it all at a loss... to follow it up with another rotation into Selling 3 months later after realizing a mistake. In between, calling for a 90% Market Correction, while being shielded in "Disruptors" - the true believers likely found God along with Cathy while squatting at home sipping Sangria. This sordid mess of an ETF is a one way ticket to failure longer term. Cathy churns more than any other Fund I've seen in decades, she must have worked at Schwab at some point in her career or worse, Merrill. The sheer volume of eff' up trading is astounding. Her entries are poorly timed. She seems to be her own wrecking ball. She managed to Buy the Highs in CoinBase, remarkable 1.5M Shares of it. It has been cut in half nearly after selling NVDA (up 94%) in the sub 130 range to hoover up CoinBase. NVDA is fed by the USGOV's need for AI crunching at a growing pace. Look over her non-sensical Israeli ADR purchases... No EPS, all hemorrhaging money, but KUH KUH Loads up... all losers. Egg Lady Fail. This type of investing is nothing more than a Science Experiment gone wrong in the Space/Time Continuum - one with an extended time horizon - Infinity, forever, endless - etal. Idiocy. Her prior slug of Tesla declined 28.89%. Genius investing - so she BTDs. EDIT SYRS MTLS BLI U IOVA CGEN PRLB TREE NVTA CRSP Losers. KUH KUH was butt hurt along with her herd of YOLOs in this OPM Spec positioning. Cathy enjoys propping, a shill for Wall Street, not a disruptor at all, unless you gave her your Capital, she has proven time and again - She is adept at losing yours. Her real Jing comes from Fees and Churn. She doesn't care, as long as it's moving. Cockroaches behave in a similar fashion. Cathy will be shown to be precisely what she is - A shill.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by HK_L61
4
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $ARKK SHORTThis name is really struggling to reclaim the 200d and now has the 20d about to cross underneath the 200d. Not to mention that this etf is compiled of a TON of names that individually would fit perfectly on this section of the Sunday Prep. Will be watching this week to see if it stuffs the 200d and then will be looking for lower highs to join trend. If it just flushes off the open Monday and loses the 50d, I may look to get involved lower. If it loses lasts week’s lows it’s in trouble.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
assess risks before entering a bullish tradeTrend(OBV) uses True Strength Index to analyze "On-Balance-Volume", which measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator. Horizontal lines and zones are supports (entry for bulls and exit for bears) and resistances (exits for bulls and entries for bears). Diagonal lines from Fib channel/fan are for trend-determination and additional levels for active trading. The market is actively moving so the entries and exits constantly change. Trade small if you want to practice!
AMEX:ARKK
by KhanhC.Hoang
ARK - Bring Investors along with Investment "Themes" - Eat ThemDeep Learning, Data Center Paradigm Shift, Digital Wallets, Virtual Worlds, Bitcoin Transition, EV's, Autonomy, AeroSpace, SLA (aka 3D Printing) and Genome Science. To ARK's credit - Transparency is not an issue, providing relevant and timely information to Investors is a large "Chit" in CW's corner. To ARK's debit - Youth, relatively new to Investing has adopted the TESLA Witch without prior knowledge of Events of the Fourth Kind. Ignorance of previous TTIDs is no excuse for remorse. Kathy speaks well to the DOTCOM Era rehash, she is, after all, well spoken. And yet so were a great many during the DOTCON Era, the similarities are astounding frankly. She reminds me of a younger, more aggressive Jim Crammer. Very few remember Jimmy blowing up his own Hedge Fund, instead their timeline appears to begin an end with "Mad Money" - the Money Honey, Joey K, etal into the Becky Q / Warren Buffet love affair. The frenzy can be illustrated by ARKs Capital Under Management - ARK grew 50% in just shy of Six Months. Passive/Aggressive Investors tossed loads of Capital into ARKs pond. I've watched Kuh Kuh Cathy invest in some extremely risky Small Caps from Israel for the purpose of simply creating a chase. ARK is exceptional at this strategy - and why they are only too pleased to provide timely updates to their Portfolio adjustments... They create a chase outside the fund. "I'll just follow Kuh Kuh and buy what she buys - but on my own account, no need to pay fees when she is guide." Kuh Kuh's strategy of concentration worked until it did not as there is only so much Junk one can buy, she became a primary Seller as chasers became late entries or "Disrupters" to her Strategy. Smaller, less liquid stocks are outsized positions in ARK's Innovation Fund as well as her stable of Funds. Simply put - Kuh Kuh has become the Egg Man. ARK trapped itself, a post-DotCom Ponzi which has experienced its own disruption as the Innovation's Fund Share price took a very large clipping. The first rules of investing - Kuh Kuh thought she was smarter than basic math. Investing in high-growth, over-valued, hyper sensitive Small Cap Tech has never been a diverse strategy, it is one of concentration and immense Risk. Market rotations only serve to compound the Price destruction. Stable swapped for Speculative... is not management, it is Degenerate Gambling. Kuh Kuh's Management fees are 25X competitors. Look before you leap passive/aggressive, Kuh Kuh eats her own.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by HK_L61
2