EEM trade ideas
Daily EEM stock trend forecast analysis19-Aug
pretiming analysis
1. Recommended Positions
=> Short-Bearish
2. Price target within 10 days in the future
Stock price: 35.76 ~ 36.32
% Change: -9.93% ~ -8.51%
3. Investing section
=> In Rising section of high profit & low risk so far. But it would be in falling section tomorrow
4. Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend
=> In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations.
5. Today's S&D strength
=> Supply-Demand strength has changed from a strong buying flow to a suddenly strengthening selling flow.
6. Forecast Candlestick Color at tomorrow
=> RED Candlestick
7. Forecast Timing Chart of 10 days in the future
www.pretiming.com
8. Forecast Range % D+1 (C): -0.21%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -0.76% ~ 0.33%
9. %Average in case of rising (C): 0.63%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -0.29% ~ 0.89%
10. %Average in case of falling (C): -0.52%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -0.87% ~ 0.08%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (BlackRock) analysis.I'm bullish for Emerging Markets by fundamental analysis. Technical analysis says, there is a good opportunity to go long from current levels with a low risk. We are probably in the middle of the bull market on EM.
The chart is one of the most poppular Emerging Market ETF - led by BlackRock - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.
EEM & US Dollar. When with the global rotation pay off?Asia is getting very close to completing their EM development and will eventually move away from pegged regimes vs the USD as the US slowly fades in terms of GDP percentage vs the world. That is how it worked with the Euro and its only a matter of time with the Yuan. With China just starting to very slowly let their currency depreciate to boost growth and capital flows starting to move towards JPY and CHF as world markets evolve and seek safety in the transition, its unclear if the USD will be a safe haven this time around. The US market is currently the only market in the world with a higher value than previous periods. Once the world begins to recover, its hard to imagine global capital flow will remain in the US with its overvalued valuations and expected decrease in growth and productivity. Especially as all other global markets have extremely undervalued valuations and are further along in development and implementation of 21st century digital economic infrastructure. Global US denominated debt vs US monetary base may make the supply of USD thin and should hold up the value relatively well over time and should slow down its domestic inflation as the world de-dollarizes. However, its unclear if this dollar shortage is actually enough to tip the scales enough to create an extremely strong dollar that can lock up the current system. It seems obvious that market participants around the world are itching to shift their capital out of the US and EEM is a simple way to track the progress and developments with the dollar. If EEM breaks its long term structure, it will be obvious which direction the dollar appreciation/depreciation debate has gone. Hedge Funds clearly made the dollar weakness bet and rotated into EM Q1 and Q2 2019 but it did not pay off. As of 8/19/19 it is clear the global rotation is not quite ready with US long term yields collapsing to all time lows as Europeans seek safety and China not recovering as expected. Perhaps the key turn will be in Q4 2019 when China starts to show recovery and Europe handles Brexit along with its recessions. It seems evident that US markets can maintain their tall peaks regardless of domestic growth as long as capital flow does seek greener pastures.
Time for Emerging Markets to Emerge or Emergency Exit?We can clearly see the Descending Triangle in the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ETF (EEM) share price movement that developed over the past 2 years which could be very positive for EEM, should we see a break and close above the resistance level at $42.70. A break a close above these levels could see the price seeking resistance at around $43.50. My medium term target is $44.80. Main resentence levels over short-term are the 200-day ($41.69) & 50-day (41.87$) moving averages.
The share price currently finds itself in extreme oversold according to its 14-day RSI . It has also massively underperformed the S&P500 over the past 2 years.
For short-term traders, I would recommend a stop-loss at $38.
Daily EEM stock forecast09-Aug
Investing strategies by pretiming analysis
Forecast candlestick chart of 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com
Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend: In the midst of a rebounding trend of upward direction box pattern price flow marked by limited falls and upward fluctuations.
Today's Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening selling flow when stock market opening.
Forecast Candlestick Color at tomorrow: RED Candlestick
Forecast Range % D+1: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -1.0% (LOW), -0.5% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.7% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 0.4% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.0% (HIGH) ~ -1.2% (LOW), -0.9% (CLOSE)
EM - a breakout either way will tell a storyA break to the upside and the dollar will breakdown
A break to the downside and the dollar will make new highs.
This is a good indicator to determine how to trade risk on and off currency pairs
EEM accelerating downtrend on trade war uncertaintyTrade war uncertainty is gonna cause EEM to continue this down trend. The stock had resistance at that $38 mark in 2016, broke out over that level in 2017, and has been in a down trend since Febrary 2018's big selloff. It bounced off that $38 level again late last year and met resistance at $45. The price also broke under the bottom resistance line of the bear flag. I'm looking to buy the October $40 strike puts if the stock hits $40 on a bounce.
$EEM - Emerging Markets Under PressureAs volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM) have been rattled heavily over the past few trading sessions.
On a technical basis, $EEM prices are below all three of its EMAs, with a death crosses forming on i) the 10-Day and 50 & 200-Day EMAs, and ii) the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, something that has not been seen since May. Further, its RSI continues to fall, indicating that momentum is quickly increasing to the downside as global investors lose faith in Emerging Markets. Lastly, $EEM prices seem to to be in a downward trend since July 25th, with the EEM/SPY price ratio continuing its march lower, as global investors (continue to) invest in the US over Emerging Markets.
Given the increase in rhetoric between the two economic giants, Emerging Market stocks are currently under heavy bearish pressure, with no end in sight. If these pressures continue on the space, we see $EEM heading lower to $38.45 as its next stop.
Daily EEM stock forecast flow01-Aug
Forecast timing analysis.
Forecast candlestick chart of 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com
Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls.
Today's Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend.
Forecast D+1 Candlestick Color : RED Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.7% (LOW), -0.4% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.8% (HIGH) ~ -0.1% (LOW), 0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.1% (HIGH) ~ -1.1% (LOW), -0.9% (CLOSE)
Update: EEM bear put spreadForgot to publish this idea a couple weeks ago:
BOT +2 VERTICAL EEM 100 20 SEP 19 42/41 PUT @.25
- pays 150 on max profit at 41 range on expiry
- breakeven at expiry 41.75. Needs a 2.7% drop to break even on the trade.
Slightly positive right now, and progressing well overall.
I put this trade on mid month when the EEM was around 43.
Looks like a type of H&S pattern forming. Watching the 42 range for neckline failure .
Daily EEM stock price trend forecast analysis. 26-Jul
Stock price trend forecast timing analysis.
See a forecast candlestick chart of 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com
Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls.
Today's Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening buying flow when stock market opening.
Forecast D+1 Candlestick Color : RED Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), -0.1% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.9% (HIGH) ~ -0.1% (LOW), 0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.1% (HIGH) ~ -1.0% (LOW), -0.9% (CLOSE)
EDUCATION: EMULATING YIELD VIA SHORT PUTOver time, my basic approach to my IRA has been to acquire shares at substantial discounts over time and to take advantage of "the three legs": (1) short call premium; (2) dividends; and (3) growth, with the eventual goal to be able to solely or predominantly rely on dividends post-retirement, since "growth" can periodically be elusive and short call premium collection on covered calls can vary widely, depending on movement of the underlying, implied volatility, and one's degree of "aggression."*
Typically, this has involved selling puts as an "acquire lower" strategy, followed by share assignment, and then covering. However, as we all know, getting into stock at a particular price results in a less than agile setup. After all -- and regardless of whether you buy stocks outright or are assigned them -- once you're in stock, you're in at the price you bought or were assigned, and there's no amount of magic wand waving that will change the price at which you acquired, even if you shed tears and get buyer's remorse later.
In comparison, staying in options as long as possible affords you greater flexibility as to potential acquisition price since you can roll for credit and therefore cost basis reduction before your getting full on into the shares. Relatedly, you can essentially "manipulate" the potential share price at which you're assigned by rolling the short puts down and out if you become unhappy with the strike at which you sold originally.
All that having been said, what if I want to emulate dividend yield in the shares while I wait to get assigned at a discount? Well, there's a way to do that -- with short puts.
Pictured here is an EEM June 19th '20 36 short put, paying .97 at the mid, with delta/theta metrics of 18/.36. 328 days out in time, it's the expiry nearest 365 days 'til expiry, and the delta'd strike (~18) that will pay something approximating the annualized dividend of $90.** In other words, this isn't the actual trade you'd put on to emulate dividend yield (although absolutely nothing prevents you from doing that), but rather a guide to tell you what delta and/or theta you'd need to sell in shorter duration to emulate the amount of annualized dividend.
In this particular case, selling the September 20th 40 short put*** would potentially fit that bill. Paying a .30 credit, it has delta/theta metrics of 17.29/.69 with a theta burn nearly twice that of the longer-dated 36, with the downside being that the strike is obviously much closer to current price than the 18 delta sold out in time. However, the theta metric makes it conceivable that you could collect what amounts to the annual premium of .90 in three to four expiry cycles as compared to 12, assuming that the underlying goes sideways, up, or even down to a certain degree during your credit collection/divvy generation emulation process.
Post fill, look to roll at extrinsic approaching worthless from the ~18 delta to an ~18 delta strike in an expiry that will pay a credit, aiming to collect at least .25 with any given roll. If you're not able to get at least .25 on a roll to a similarly delta'd strike without going out an absurd amount of time, consider rolling down and out more incrementally.
Naturally, this begs the question of whether and under what circumstances it's worth being in stock versus short puts since you can emulate not only dividends, but also growth with short puts ... . But I'll leave that discussion for another day.
* -- By "aggression," I mean what delta you're willing to sell as cover (i.e., 20 versus 30 versus 40 versus at-the-monied or even monied).
** -- The annual yield in EEM isn't great -- 2.08%, so I'm primarily using it as an example due to its excellent liquidity and market tightness in the off hours.
*** -- Naturally, this is best done on weakness or in a higher implied volatility environment. EEM's at 7/16 here, so you're consequently not getting a ton of juice out of the 18 delta.
$EEM Emerging Markets - Dead MoneyAfter a breakout first half in 2019, Emerging Market equities ($EEM as a proxy) have begun to loose some steam.
Since February, Emerging Market stocks have been treading water, in relation to their US equity counterparts, trading in an established range of $44-$40 since then.
On a technical basis, $EEM weekly chart is showing that Emerging Market stocks are not in trend at the moment, with its ADX below 20, and an RSI remaining flat since June 1st, despite the increase in moment in late May.
On a fundamental basis, despite their cheap valuations relative to their Developed Market peers, and accomadative global central bank policies, Emerging Market stocks seem to still be weighed down by economic weakness in China, the US-China trade war, weak global PMIs, and the overall slowdown in global growth.
Going forward, we see this trend persisting over the next few weeks and months, unless their is a positive shock to the global economy and financial markets.
For looking investors who are adventurous, we recommend investors to drill down within Emerging Market stocks and be selective on a regional and sectoral/industry basis.
Additionally, investors should take a look at Frontier Markets ($FM as a proxy), which has performed much better year-to-date in relation to their Emerging Market peers.
Take advantage of how sensitive the market is!We currently live in a world where media has major sway in the psychology of investors, including ones who do their homework. After watching $EEM closely, I see that at each major event over the past few months (tariffs placed on China, Federal Reserve doesn't reveal a rate cut at June 18-19th meeting, G20 meeting) the ETF spiked before cooling down as more information became available. I see an opportunity that can be taken advantage of regarding the upcoming FOMC July 30th date. Short term profits although as history has shown they can be short lived, so take profits early I would suggest.
The rising wedge suggests a potential spike but an inevitable drop as more data is made available.
PS: I forgot to add some indicators to further support my argument, but feel free to comment and give your own opinion, also this is my first post so I'm open to any constructive criticism you have too.
EEM - Bull Put Credit SpreadPA sell off last few days to Mid BB%
Daily RSI Oversold
Found S&R at 42.50. Looking for consolidation and then reversal to mean back higher.
Aiming for 42.50/42 Put Credit & 43 Call option for Directional bias higher.
Exp Aug 16 but selling to close in Profit well before that.!
Good Luck - Watch YOUR RISK.
$EEM Iron Butterfly OpportunityIf you follow my ideas you know that I like to be neutral more often than not. I originally was looking at a Calendar spread for $EEM but decided that an Iron Butterfly would be the better trade. It has wider breakevens to cover the majority of the recent range, as opposed to the Calendar, which would require an increase in IV to expand its range. Typically, IV rises when price drops, so Calendars should be slightly short, which I don't want to be here. 8/23 weeklies have attractive pricing.
Emerging market study. Hello all,
Emerging market play. Established market are stumbling around slightly.
2018 localized low was 38. Room to the upside if this finds a foot hold.
Watch list.
Daily EEM forecast timing analysis by Supply-Demand strength19-Jun
Stock investing strategies AMEX:EEM
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Rising section of high profit & low risk
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of an upward trend of strong upward momentum stock price flow marked by the temporary falls and strong rises.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend.
View a Chart with Supply-Demand(S&D) strength forecast: www.pretiming.com
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 1.0% (HIGH) ~ 0.5% (LOW), 0.9% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.9% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), 0.7% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.9% (LOW), -0.5% (CLOSE)
Stock Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Stock price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
